• Q3e: sales +17% EBITDA + 39% y-o-y
• Positive news flow incl. strong order intake and NATO verification
• 80% gross margins, 15% sales CAGR at 11-7x EBITDA '25e-'26e

We expect continued good delivery in Q3

We expect Q3 to follow the positive trend seen in recent quarters, with solid underlying growth in the base business (Firewall/IAM) supported by deliveries on the Defence contracts, for sales of SEK 44m (+17% y-o-y, of which 21% organic and -4% FX). Clavister announced several interesting orders in the quarter, with a total initial value of SEK 17m, with the potential to ramp up to SEK 43-48m in the next few years. One of the orders was a SEK 5m software licence from a European defence contractor that could develop into a partnership similar to that with BAE. While these orders should have a limited impact on Q3, they provide good support for the ARR and future growth. We find this encouraging and a testament to management's work with driving more efficiencies in the sales organisation over the last year. We expect opex to remain relatively stable y-o-y (SEK 25m vs. SEK 24m in Q3'23) rendering an EBITDA of SEK 10m, an increase of 38% from SEK 7m in Q3'23 and an EBIT that is closing in on break-even (SEK -1m vs. SEK -5m in Q3'23).

Included in NATO's information assurance product catalogue

Another highlight from the quarter was Clavister's official inclusion in the NATO information assurance product catalogue (NIAPC). This means that Clavister's CyberArmour product has been verified and is eligible for selection into projects handling NATO information. This is an important milestone and a recognition of Clavister's software. While it will not have a direct financial impact for the company, management told us that it has been well-received by customers, and we think it is something that can open new doors in the industry.

11x and 7x EV/EBITDA on 2025e and 2026e

Based on our updated estimates, the share is trading at 2.4-2.0x EV/sales and 11-7x EV/EBITDA on 2025e-2026e.