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Humble Group

Humble Group

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Humble Group is a Swedish fast-growing FMCG group with the strategy to grow both organically and through acquisitions. Through a reverse listing via Bayn Group in 2020, Humble Group in its current shape was formed. Since then the group has made nearly 50 acquisitions, and is aiming to become a new FMCG powerhouse consisting of entrepreneur-driven companies. This allows the group to enjoy the perks of small enterprises while still having the large-scale benefits of a big group.

Sustainability information

We stress that the group’s history in its current form is not very long. With acquisitions being an integral part of the business, we highlight that Humble potentially could suffer from market decline, increased competition, or price pressure, which could affect the group’s acquisition agenda and its financial performance. Additionally, considering that Humble has a relatively large share of in-house production, this is associated with several risks, such as potential disruptions in the production, machinery breakdown or IT-problems. Furthermore, Humble is exposed to FX fluctuations which could affect both sales and the cost base.

Financials

SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 7766 8520 9243
Sales growth (%) 10,2 9,7 8,5
EBITDA 687 846 1005
EBITDA margin (%) 8,8 9,9 10,9
EBIT adj. 385 504 666
EBIT adj. margin (%) 5 5,9 7,2
Pretax profit 159 330 502
EPS 0,27 0,57 0,87
EPS growth (%) -213,1 N/A 52,1
EPS adj. 0,61 0,9 1,19
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9,8 7,6 6
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 17,5 12,7 9,1
P/E (x) 40,3 18,8 12,4
P/E adj. (x) 17,6 11,9 9
EV/sales (x) 0,87 0,75 0,66
FCF yield (%) -4 6,7 9,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -6 4,5 6,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 2,7 1,8 1,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 2,2 1,4 0,8
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 7766 8520 9243
COGS -5347 -5828 -6281
Gross profit 2419 2692 2962
Other operating items -1732 -1846 -1957
EBITDA 687 846 1005
Depreciation and amortisation -117 -151 -151
of which leasing depreciation -78 -88 -88
EBITA 570 696 853
EO Items -10 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -195 -192 -187
EBIT 375 504 666
Net financial items -216 -174 -164
Pretax profit 159 330 502
Tax -37 -68 -103
Net profit 122 262 398
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 122 262 398
EPS 0,27 0,57 0,87
EPS adj. 0,61 0,9 1,19
Total extraordinary items after tax -8 0 0
Leasing payments -78 -88 -88
Tax rate (%) 23,3 20,6 20,6
Gross margin (%) 31,1 31,6 32
EBITDA margin (%) 8,8 9,9 10,9
EBITA margin (%) 7,3 8,2 9,2
EBIT margin (%) 4,8 5,9 7,2
Pre-tax margin (%) 2 3,9 5,4
Net margin (%) 1,6 3,1 4,3
Sales growth (%) 10,2 9,7 8,5
EBITDA growth (%) 4,2 23,2 18,7
EBITA growth (%) 4,2 22,1 22,6
EBIT growth (%) 18,7 34,3 32,3
Net profit growth (%) -215,1 114,8 52,1
EPS growth (%) -213,1 N/A 52,1
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 2,4 4,9 7
ROE adj. (%) 6,4 8,5 10,3
ROCE (%) 5,4 6,8 8,7
ROCE adj. (%) 8,1 9,3 11,1
ROIC (%) 6,4 7,9 9,7
ROIC adj. (%) 6,6 7,9 9,7
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 697 846 1005
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 9 9,9 10,9
EBITDA lease adj. 619 758 917
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 8 8,9 9,9
EBITA adj. 580 696 853
EBITA adj. margin (%) 7,5 8,2 9,2
EBIT adj. 385 504 666
EBIT adj. margin (%) 5 5,9 7,2
Pretax profit Adj. 364 522 689
Net profit Adj. 325 454 585
Net profit to shareholders adj. 325 454 585
Net adj. margin (%) 4,2 5,3 6,3
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
EBITDA 687 846 1005
Goodwill 3707 3707 3707
Net financial items -216 -174 -164
Other intangible assets 2328 2255 2198
Paid tax -77 -68 -103
Tangible fixed assets 261 262 268
Non-cash items -8 0 0
Right-of-use asset 419 439 459
Cash flow before change in WC 386 605 737
Total other fixed assets 127 127 127
Change in working capital -232 21 -73
Fixed assets 6842 6791 6759
Operating cash flow 154 626 664
Inventories 1160 1280 1383
Capex tangible fixed assets -92 -64 -69
Receivables 911 960 1037
Capex intangible fixed assets -62 -119 -129
Other current assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and Disposals -198 -115 -15
Cash and liquid assets 432 652 994
Free cash flow -198 328 450
Total assets 9345 9683 10173
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 5221 5483 5881
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation -96 -108 -108
Total equity 5221 5483 5881
Other non-cash items -17 115 15
Long-term debt 1430 1406 1406
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 452 452 452
Total other long-term liabilities 632 632 632
Short-term debt 475 384 369
Accounts payable 679 777 840
Other current liabilities 456 549 593
Total liabilities and equity 9345 9683 10173
Net IB debt 1835 1500 1143
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1835 1500 1143
Net IB debt excl. leasing 1383 1048 691
Capital employed 7578 7725 8108
Capital invested 7056 6983 7025
Working capital 936 915 988
Market cap. diluted (m) 4921 4921 4921
Net IB debt adj. 1835 1500 1143
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 6756 6421 6065
Total assets turnover (%) 85,1 89,6 93,1
Working capital/sales (%) 9,2 10,9 10,3
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) 35,1 27,4 19,4
Net debt / market cap (%) 37,3 30,5 23,2
Equity ratio (%) 55,9 56,6 57,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 35,1 27,4 19,4
Current ratio 1,55 1,69 1,9
EBITDA/net interest 3,2 4,9 6,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 2,7 1,8 1,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 2,2 1,4 0,8
Interest coverage 2,5 3,7 4,7
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Shares outstanding adj. 459 459 459
Diluted shares adj. 459 459 459
EPS 0,27 0,57 0,87
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. 0,61 0,9 1,19
BVPS 11,37 11,94 12,81
BVPS adj. -1,77 -1,04 -0,05
Net IB debt/share 4 3,27 2,49
Share price 10,72 10,72 10,72
Market cap. (m) 4921 4921 4921
P/E (x) 40,3 18,8 12,4
EV/sales (x) 0,87 0,75 0,66
EV/EBITDA (x) 9,8 7,6 6
EV/EBITA (x) 11,9 9,2 7,1
EV/EBIT (x) 18 12,7 9,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -4 6,7 9,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -6 4,5 6,9
P/BVPS (x) 0,94 0,9 0,84
P/BVPS adj. (x) 3,25 2,77 2,26
P/E adj. (x) 17,6 11,9 9
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 9,7 7,6 6
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 11,6 9,2 7,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 17,5 12,7 9,1
EV/CE (x) 0,9 0,8 0,7
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 2 2,2 2,2
Capex/depreciation 3,9 2,9 3,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 35,2 24,4 25,8
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 14,94 23,84 23,59

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Humble Group - Company presentation with CEO Simon Petrén

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Main shareholders - Humble Group

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Neudi & C:o AB 10.4 % 10.4 % 26 Feb 2025
Håkan Roos (RoosGruppen) 10.3 % 10.3 % 26 Feb 2025
Capital Group 6.7 % 6.7 % 31 Dec 2024
Noel Abdayem 6.3 % 6.3 % 30 Dec 2024
Alta Fox Capital 5.9 % 5.9 % 30 Jun 2023
Avanza Pension 5.5 % 5.5 % 26 Feb 2025
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.3 % 3.3 % 26 Feb 2025
Jofam AB 2.9 % 2.9 % 12 Nov 2024
Swedbank Försäkring 2.7 % 2.7 % 26 Feb 2025
DNB Asset Management SA 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Jan 2025
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB