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Humble Group

Humble Group

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Humble Group is a Swedish fast-growing FMCG group with the strategy to grow both organically and through acquisitions. Through a reverse listing via Bayn Group in 2020, Humble Group in its current shape was formed. Since then the group has made over 30 acquisitions, and is aiming to become a new FMCG powerhouse consisting of entrepreneur-driven companies. This allows the group to enjoy the perks of small enterprises while still having the large-scale benefits of a big group.

We stress that the group’s history in its current form is not very long. With acquisitions being an integral part of the business, we highlight that Humble potentially could suffer from market decline, increased competition, or price pressure, which could affect the group’s acquisition agenda and its financial performance. Additionally, considering that Humble has a relatively large share of in-house production, this is associated with several risks, such as potential disruptions in the production, machinery breakdown or IT-problems. Furthermore, Humble is exposed to FX fluctuations which could affect both sales and the cost base.

Financials

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1518 4727 6110
Sales growth (%) 4665,5 211,4 29,3
EBITDA 162 479 686
EBITDA margin (%) 10,7 10,1 11,2
EBIT adj -245 -718 -614
EBIT adj margin (%) -16,2 -15,2 -10
Pretax profit -388 -938 -841
EPS rep -1,39 -3,07 -3,08
EPS growth (%) -235,2 -120,8 -0,4
EPS adj 0,77 1 1,09
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 57,1 12,4 8,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) -37,7 -8,3 -9,4
P/E (x) -20,2 -3,2 -3,2
P/E adj (x) 36,5 9,7 8,9
EV/sales (x) 6,1 1,3 0,9
FCF yield (%) -34,6 -30,5 -7,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 14,4 6,3 4,2
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -34,6 -30,5 -7,4
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 10,2 5,9 4,2
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1518 4727 6110
COGS -1037 -3211 -4199
Gross profit 481 1516 1912
Other operating items -318 -1036 -1226
EBITDA 162 479 686
Depreciation and amortisation -11 -48 -44
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 151 432 642
EO items -68 -37 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -464 -1187 -1256
EBIT -313 -755 -614
Net financial items -75 -183 -227
Pretax profit -388 -938 -841
Tax 45 14 -85
Net profit -343 -923 -927
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -343 -923 -927
EPS -1,39 -3,07 -3,08
EPS Adj 0,77 1 1,09
Total extraordinary items after tax -67,9 -37 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -11,6 -1,5 10,2
Gross margin (%) 31,7 32,1 31,3
EBITDA margin (%) 10,7 10,1 11,2
EBITA margin (%) 10 9,1 10,5
EBIT margin (%) -20,6 -16 -10
Pretax margin (%) -25,6 -19,8 -13,8
Net margin (%) -22,6 -19,5 -15,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 4665,5 211,4 29,3
EBITDA growth (%) 744,7 195,6 43
EBIT growth (%) -497,5 -141,1 18,6
Net profit growth (%) -577,3 -169,3 -0,4
EPS growth (%) -235,2 -120,8 -0,4
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -22,9 -33,5 -39,4
ROE Adj (%) 12,7 10,9 14
ROCE (%) -10,8 -12,6 -10,5
ROCE Adj(%) 7,6 8,2 11,7
ROIC (%) -9,4 -12,4 -11,6
ROIC Adj (%) -7,3 -11,8 -11,6
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 230 516 686
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 15,2 10,9 11,2
EBITDA lease Adj 230 516 686
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 15,2 10,9 11,2
EBITA Adj 219 469 642
EBITA Adj margin (%) 14,4 9,9 10,5
EBIT Adj -245 -718 -614
EBIT Adj margin (%) -16,2 -15,2 -10
Pretax profit Adj 145 286 415
Net profit Adj 189 300 329
Net profit to shareholders Adj 189 300 329
Net Adj margin (%) 12,5 6,3 5,4
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 162 479 686
Net financial items -75 -183 -227
Paid tax -11 -41 -85
Non-cash items 648 452 43
Cash flow before change in WC 725 708 416
Change in WC -658 -515 -110
Operating cash flow 67 193 307
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -10 -23 -5
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -44 -101 -140
Acquisitions and disposals -2404 -959 -380
Free cash flow -2390 -890 -218
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 1317 520 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -1459 -329 337
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 2152 2723 2221
Other intangible assets 2632 2236 1623
Tangible fixed assets 297 379 340
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 44 46 46
Fixed assets 5125 5385 4230
Inventories 516 847 1089
Receivables 551 824 783
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 421 479 261
Total assets 6613 7536 6363
Shareholders equity 2690 2818 1891
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 2690 2818 1891
Long-term debt 2402 2721 2436
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 645 546 546
Short-term debt 356 785 690
Accounts payable 364 454 545
Other current liabilities 156 212 255
Total liabilities and equity 6613 7536 6363
Net IB debt 2337 3027 2865
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 2337 3027 2865
Net IB debt excl. leasing 2337 3027 2865
Capital invested 5620 6386 5297
Working capital 547 1006 1072
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 6915 2922 2922
Net IB debt Adj 2337 3027 2865
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 9252 5949 5787
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 42,8 66,8 87,9
Working capital / sales (%) 17,7 16,4 17
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 86,9 107,4 151,5
Net debt / market cap (%) 40,3 103,6 98
Equity ratio (%) 40,7 37,4 29,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 86,9 107,4 151,5
Current ratio (%) 169,9 148,3 143,2
EBITDA / net interest (%) 217 262,3 301,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 1441,2 631,4 417,8
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 1016 586,2 417,8
Interest cover (%) 201,1 227,2 268
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
P/BVPS Adj 12,85 30,87 -8,87
Shares outstanding adj. 247 301 301
Fully diluted shares Adj 247 301 301
EPS -1,39 -3,07 -3,08
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,77 1 1,09
BVPS 10,89 9,35 6,28
BVPS Adj 2,18 0,31 -1,09
Net IB debt / share 9,5 10 9,5
Share price 23,48 9,7 9,7
Market cap. (m) 5798 2922 2922
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -20,2 -3,2 -3,2
EV/sales 6,1 1,26 0,95
EV/EBITDA 57,1 12,4 8,4
EV/EBITA 61,1 13,8 9
EV/EBIT -29,6 -7,9 -9,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -34,6 -30,5 -7,4
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -34,6 -30,5 -7,4
P/BVPS 2,57 1,04 1,55
P/E Adj 36,5 9,7 8,9
EV/EBITDA Adj 40,2 11,5 8,4
EV/EBITA Adj 42,2 12,7 9
EV/EBIT Adj -37,7 -8,3 -9,4
EV/cap. employed 1,7 0,9 1,2
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 3,5 2,6 2,4
Capex / depreciation 497,7 259,4 330,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 3,4 6,1 1,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 3,6 12,6 12,8

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Håkan Roos (RoosGruppen) 9.9 % 9.9 % 27 Oct 2022
Swedbank Försäkring 9.2 % 9.2 % 27 Oct 2022
Noel Abdayem 9.2 % 9.2 % 27 Oct 2022
Neudi & C:o AB 6.0 % 6.0 % 27 Oct 2022
Avanza Pension 5.2 % 5.2 % 27 Oct 2022
Thomas Petrén 4.2 % 4.2 % 27 Oct 2022
Capital Group 3.8 % 3.8 % 30 Sep 2022
Futur Pension 2.5 % 2.5 % 27 Oct 2022
Creades AB 2.3 % 2.3 % 31 Aug 2022
Caldas Capital 2.2 % 2.2 % 31 Aug 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list -

Name Quantity Code Date
Simon Petrén + 4 158 BUY 14 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 116 260 BUY 14 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 84 042 BUY 6 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 8 853 BUY 2 Jul 2021
Johan Lennartsson + 1 000 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Marcus Stenkil + 1 250 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Simon Petrén + 2 092 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 289 785 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 173 915 BUY 28 Jun 2021
Johan Lennartsson + 100 000 BUY 17 Jun 2021

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