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Humble Group

Humble Group

Humble Group is a Swedish fast-growing FMCG group with the strategy to grow both organically and through acquisitions. Through a reverse listing via Bayn Group in 2020, Humble Group in its current shape was formed. Since then the group has made nearly 50 acquisitions, and is aiming to become a new FMCG powerhouse consisting of entrepreneur-driven companies. This allows the group to enjoy the perks of small enterprises while still having the large-scale benefits of a big group.

Sustainability information

We stress that the group’s history in its current form is not very long. With acquisitions being an integral part of the business, we highlight that Humble potentially could suffer from market decline, increased competition, or price pressure, which could affect the group’s acquisition agenda and its financial performance. Additionally, considering that Humble has a relatively large share of in-house production, this is associated with several risks, such as potential disruptions in the production, machinery breakdown or IT-problems. Furthermore, Humble is exposed to FX fluctuations which could affect both sales and the cost base.

SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 7049 7910 8731
Sales growth (%) 46,9 12,2 10,4
EBITDA 659 760 944
EBITDA margin (%) 9,3 9,6 10,8
EBIT adj. 352 457 638
EBIT adj. margin (%) 5 5,8 7,3
Pretax profit -62 327 532
EPS -0,24 0,57 0,94
EPS growth (%) -0,3 -343,2 64
EPS adj. 0,31 0,89 1,27
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9,2 7,6 5,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 17,2 12,6 8,5
P/E (x) -41,7 17,1 10,4
P/E adj. (x) 31,8 11 7,7
EV/sales (x) 0,86 0,73 0,62
FCF yield (%) 11,5 0,5 6,7
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 9,8 -1,3 4,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 2,5 1,8 1,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 2,1 1,5 0,8
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 7049 7910 8731
COGS -4921 -5484 -5983
Gross profit 2128 2426 2748
Other operating items -1469 -1666 -1804
EBITDA 659 760 944
Depreciation and amortisation -112 -110 -117
of which leasing depreciation -65 -68 -68
EBITA 547 650 826
EO Items -36 5 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -231 -188 -188
EBIT 316 462 638
Net financial items -378 -136 -106
Pretax profit -62 327 532
Tax -44 -69 -110
Net profit -106 258 423
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -106 258 423
EPS -0,24 0,57 0,94
EPS adj. 0,31 0,89 1,27
Total extraordinary items after tax -62 4 0
Leasing payments -65 -68 -68
Tax rate (%) -71 21,1 20,6
Gross margin (%) 30,2 30,7 31,5
EBITDA margin (%) 9,3 9,6 10,8
EBITA margin (%) 7,8 8,2 9,5
EBIT margin (%) 4,5 5,8 7,3
Pre-tax margin (%) -0,9 4,1 6,1
Net margin (%) -1,5 3,3 4,8
Sales growth (%) 46,9 12,2 10,4
EBITDA growth (%) 30,8 15,3 24,2
EBITA growth (%) 30,5 18,9 27
EBIT growth (%) 23 46,3 38
Net profit growth (%) 49,3 -343,2 64
EPS growth (%) -0,3 -343,2 64
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -2,4 5,1 7,7
ROE adj. (%) 4,2 8,7 11,1
ROCE (%) 4,6 6,7 8,9
ROCE adj. (%) 8,3 9,3 11,5
ROIC (%) 13,8 7,8 9,8
ROIC adj. (%) 14,7 7,7 9,8
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 695 755 944
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 9,9 9,5 10,8
EBITDA lease adj. 630 687 876
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 8,9 8,7 10
EBITA adj. 583 645 826
EBITA adj. margin (%) 8,3 8,2 9,5
EBIT adj. 352 457 638
EBIT adj. margin (%) 5 5,8 7,3
Pretax profit Adj. 205 510 720
Net profit Adj. 187 442 611
Net profit to shareholders adj. 187 442 611
Net adj. margin (%) 2,6 5,6 7
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA 659 760 944
Goodwill 3725 3702 3702
Net financial items -378 -136 -106
Other intangible assets 2288 2340 2274
Paid tax -54 -79 -110
Tangible fixed assets 191 201 217
Non-cash items 146 12 0
Right-of-use asset 299 304 316
Cash flow before change in WC 373 558 728
Total other fixed assets 257 178 178
Change in working capital 557 -48 -105
Fixed assets 6760 6725 6687
Operating cash flow 930 510 623
Inventories 983 1004 1105
Capex tangible fixed assets -49 -59 -65
Receivables 772 917 1057
Capex intangible fixed assets -112 -91 -122
Other current assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and Disposals -262 -337 -140
Cash and liquid assets 401 345 561
Free cash flow 507 23 296
Total assets 8916 8991 9409
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 4869 5280 5703
Share issues and buybacks 875 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation -72 -80 -80
Total equity 4869 5280 5703
Other non-cash items 126 349 140
Long-term debt 1369 1175 1175
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 325 323 323
Total other long-term liabilities 508 508 508
Short-term debt 583 352 212
Accounts payable 652 742 913
Other current liabilities 610 611 576
Total liabilities and equity 8916 8991 9409
Net IB debt 1648 1356 1000
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1648 1356 1000
Net IB debt excl. leasing 1323 1033 677
Capital employed 7146 7130 7413
Capital invested 6517 6635 6702
Working capital 493 568 672
Market cap. diluted (m) 4417 4417 4417
Net IB debt adj. 1648 1356 1000
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 6065 5773 5417
Total assets turnover (%) 79,3 88,3 94,9
Working capital/sales (%) 11,2 6,7 7,1
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) 33,8 25,7 17,5
Net debt / market cap (%) 37,3 30,7 22,6
Equity ratio (%) 54,6 58,7 60,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 33,8 25,7 17,5
Current ratio 1,17 1,33 1,6
EBITDA/net interest 1,7 5,6 8,9
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 2,5 1,8 1,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 2,1 1,5 0,8
Interest coverage 1,4 4,4 7,1
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 451 451 451
Diluted shares adj. 451 451 451
EPS -0,24 0,57 0,94
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. 0,31 0,89 1,27
BVPS 10,8 11,71 12,65
BVPS adj. -2,54 -1,69 -0,61
Net IB debt/share 3,65 3,01 2,22
Share price 9,8 9,8 9,8
Market cap. (m) 4417 4417 4417
P/E (x) -41,7 17,1 10,4
EV/sales (x) 0,86 0,73 0,62
EV/EBITDA (x) 9,2 7,6 5,7
EV/EBITA (x) 11,1 8,9 6,6
EV/EBIT (x) 19,2 12,5 8,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 11,5 0,5 6,7
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 9,8 -1,3 4,9
P/BVPS (x) 0,91 0,84 0,77
P/BVPS adj. (x) 3,86 2,8 2,21
P/E adj. (x) 31,8 11 7,7
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 8,7 7,6 5,7
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 10,4 8,9 6,6
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 17,2 12,6 8,5
EV/CE (x) 0,8 0,8 0,7
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 2,3 1,9 2,2
Capex/depreciation 3,4 3,6 3,8
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 25,7 29,2 30,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 24,61 20,79 22,8

Equity research

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Media

Humble Group - Company presentation with CEO Simon Petrén

Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Neudi & C:o AB 10.5 % 10.5 % 26 Apr 2024
Håkan Roos (RoosGruppen) 10.4 % 10.4 % 26 Apr 2024
Noel Abdayem 6.3 % 6.3 % 19 Apr 2024
Capital Group 6.3 % 6.3 % 31 Mar 2024
Alta Fox Capital 5.9 % 5.9 % 30 Jun 2023
Creades AB 4.1 % 4.1 % 30 Jun 2023
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.4 % 3.4 % 26 Apr 2024
DNB Asset Management AS 3.0 % 3.0 % 30 Apr 2024
Thomas Petrén 2.9 % 2.9 % 31 Aug 2022
DNB Asset Management SA 2.8 % 2.8 % 10 May 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB