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Humble Group

Humble Group

Humble Group is a Swedish fast-growing FMCG group with the strategy to grow both organically and through acquisitions. Through a reverse listing via Bayn Group in 2020, Humble Group in its current shape was formed. Since then the group has made over 20 acquisitions, and is aiming to become a new FMCG powerhouse consisting of entrepreneur-driven companies. This allows the group to enjoy the perks of small enterprises while still having the large-scale benefits of a big group.

Operating in the FMCG market, and being particularly exposed to the health- and well-being markets, Humble Group naturally sees several market tailwinds aiding its growth. Moreover, Humble is aiming to become an FMCG umbrella powerhouse of entrepreneurs. Hence, the group seems to be well positioned to capitalise on a growing market and to continue consolidate the market both in the Nordics and parts of Europe.

We stress that the group’s history in its current form is not very long. With acquisitions being an integral part of the business, we highlight that Humble potentially could suffer from market decline, increased competition, or price pressure, which could affect the group’s acquisition agenda and its financial performance. Additionally, considering that Humble has a relatively large share of in-house production, this is associated with several risks, such as potential disruptions in the production, machinery breakdown or IT-problems. Furthermore, Humble is exposed to FX fluctuations which could affect both sales and the cost base.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1518 4187 4855
Sales growth (%) 4665,5 175,9 15,9
EBITDA 162 501 641
EBITDA margin (%) 10,7 12 13,2
EBIT adj -245 -475 -241
EBIT adj margin (%) -16,1 -11,3 -5
Pretax profit -387 -633 -403
EPS rep -1,39 -2,45 -1,75
EPS growth (%) -234,8 -76,9 28,8
EPS adj 0,77 0,9 1,27
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 51,4 12,5 9,9
EV/EBIT adj (x) -34,1 -13,2 -26,2
P/E (x) -20,2 -6,8 -9,5
P/E adj (x) 36,5 18,6 13,1
EV/sales (x) 5,5 1,5 1,3
FCF yield (%) -34,6 -14,9 -1,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 8,8 3 2,4
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -34,6 -14,9 -1,1
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 6,2 3 2,4
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 1518 4187 4855
COGS -1037 -2840 -3221
Gross profit 481 1347 1634
Other operating items -318 -846 -993
EBITDA 162 501 641
Depreciation and amortisation -11 -19 -21
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 151 482 620
EO items -68 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -464 -957 -861
EBIT -313 -475 -241
Net financial items -75 -158 -162
Pretax profit -387 -633 -403
Tax 45 -68 -96
Net profit -342 -701 -499
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -342 -701 -499
EPS -1,39 -2,45 -1,75
EPS Adj 0,77 0,9 1,27
Total extraordinary items after tax -67,9 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -11,6 10,8 23,9
Gross margin (%) 31,7 32,2 33,7
EBITDA margin (%) 10,7 12 13,2
EBITA margin (%) 10 11,5 12,8
EBIT margin (%) -20,6 -11,3 -5
Pretax margin (%) -25,5 -15,1 -8,3
Net margin (%) -22,6 -16,7 -10,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 4665,5 175,9 15,9
EBITDA growth (%) 744,7 209,2 27,8
EBIT growth (%) -496,6 -51,8 49,2
Net profit growth (%) -576,4 -104,6 28,8
EPS growth (%) -234,8 -76,9 28,8
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -22,9 -29,9 -28,7
ROE Adj (%) 12,7 10,9 20,8
ROCE (%) -12,8 -10,1 -5,2
ROCE Adj(%) 9,1 10,3 13,5
ROIC (%) -11,1 -11,2 -6,7
ROIC Adj (%) -8,7 -11,2 -6,7
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 230 501 641
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 15,2 12 13,2
EBITDA lease Adj 230 501 641
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 15,2 12 13,2
EBITA Adj 219 482 620
EBITA Adj margin (%) 14,4 11,5 12,8
EBIT Adj -245 -475 -241
EBIT Adj margin (%) -16,1 -11,3 -5
Pretax profit Adj 145 324 458
Net profit Adj 189 256 362
Net profit to shareholders Adj 189 256 362
Net Adj margin (%) 12,5 6,1 7,5
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 162 501 641
Net financial items -75 -158 -162
Paid tax -11 -68 -96
Non-cash items 648 63 23
Cash flow before change in WC 725 338 406
Change in WC -658 -248 -77
Operating cash flow 67 90 329
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -10 -21 -24
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -44 -42 -49
Acquisitions and disposals -2404 -734 -307
Free cash flow -2390 -707 -51
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 1317 622 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -1459 186 284
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 2152 2206 1862
Other intangible assets 2632 2100 1632
Tangible fixed assets 297 347 351
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 44 44 44
Fixed assets 5125 4697 3888
Inventories 516 724 795
Receivables 551 738 798
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 421 735 684
Total assets 6613 6895 6165
Shareholders equity 2690 1989 1490
Minority 0 622 622
Total equity 2690 2611 2112
Long-term debt 1736 2136 2136
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 1311 1004 716
Short-term debt 107 107 107
Accounts payable 364 511 565
Other current liabilities 405 526 530
Total liabilities and equity 6613 6895 6165
Net IB debt 1422 1508 1559
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1422 1508 1559
Net IB debt excl. leasing 1422 1508 1559
Capital invested 4705 4711 4264
Working capital 298 425 499
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 6915 4759 4759
Net IB debt Adj 1422 1508 1559
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 8337 6267 6318
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 42,8 62 74,3
Working capital / sales (%) 9,5 8,6 9,5
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 52,9 57,7 73,8
Net debt / market cap (%) 24,5 31,7 32,8
Equity ratio (%) 40,7 37,9 34,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 52,9 57,7 73,8
Current ratio (%) 169,9 192,1 189,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) 217 317,4 396,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 877 300,7 243,2
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 618,2 300,7 243,2
Interest cover (%) 201,1 305,2 383,7
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
P/BVPS Adj 12,85 -21,95 -12,82
Shares outstanding adj. 247 286 286
Fully diluted shares Adj 247 286 286
EPS -1,39 -2,45 -1,75
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,77 0,9 1,27
BVPS 10,89 6,96 5,22
BVPS Adj 2,18 -0,76 -1,3
Net IB debt / share 5,8 5,3 5,5
Share price 23,48 16,66 16,66
Market cap. (m) 5798 4759 4759
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -20,2 -6,8 -9,5
EV/sales 5,49 1,5 1,3
EV/EBITDA 51,4 12,5 9,9
EV/EBITA 55,1 13 10,2
EV/EBIT -26,7 -13,2 -26,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -34,6 -14,9 -1,1
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -34,6 -14,9 -1,1
P/BVPS 2,57 2,39 3,19
P/E Adj 36,5 18,6 13,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 36,2 12,5 9,9
EV/EBITA Adj 38 13 10,2
EV/EBIT Adj -34,1 -13,2 -26,2
EV/cap. employed 1,8 1,3 1,5
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 3,5 1,5 1,5
Capex / depreciation 497,7 326,1 348,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 3,4 6 6,9
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 3,6 5,5 6

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Håkan Roos (RoosGruppen) 10.5 % 10.5 % 30 Apr 2022
Noel Abdayem 9.6 % 9.6 % 30 Apr 2022
Ernström & C:o AB 5.1 % 5.1 % 28 Apr 2022
Thomas Petrén 4.4 % 4.4 % 30 Apr 2022
Handelsbanken Fonder 3.7 % 3.7 % 30 Apr 2022
Capital Group 3.3 % 3.3 % 31 Mar 2022
Avanza Pension 3.1 % 3.1 % 30 Apr 2022
Creades AB 2.7 % 2.7 % 30 Sep 2021
Caldas Capital 2.7 % 2.7 % 29 Nov 2021
Futur Pension 2.3 % 2.3 % 30 Apr 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list -

Name Quantity Code Date
Simon Petrén + 4 158 BUY 14 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 116 260 BUY 14 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 84 042 BUY 6 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 8 853 BUY 2 Jul 2021
Johan Lennartsson + 1 000 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Marcus Stenkil + 1 250 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Simon Petrén + 2 092 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 289 785 BUY 1 Jul 2021
Noel Abdayem + 173 915 BUY 28 Jun 2021
Johan Lennartsson + 100 000 BUY 17 Jun 2021

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