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Xplora Technologies

Xplora Technologies

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Xplora is a leading provider of kids' smartwatches and sold 457k watches in 2023. The watches enable parents to contact and track their children and are restricted to only showing child-friendly content. The company bundles their smartwatches with mobile subscriptions and premium services, ensuring recurring service revenues in addition to device sales. As of Q3’24 it had 326k subscriptions, and the service segment accounted for 58% of total LTM gross profit in Q2'24. It has established itself as the leading kid's smartwatch player in Europe, with 20% market penetration in Norway and 8% in the Nordics overall. The company will also start to offer senior watches and youth smartphones, with expected product launches in Q4'24 and H2'25, respectively.

Sustainability information

The global market has numerous international competitors. With low barriers to entry, there are few hindrances that shield Xplora’s product proposition from being replicated. This could lead to loss in market share, reduced revenues, pressure on margins, loss of personnel, etc. User preferences change over time, and there is a risk that Xplora will not be able to adapt its offering to meet changing preferences. Xplora is constantly seeking to develop new products, and R&D failures may occur. The company’s subscription churn is 30-40% annually. If Xplora fails to replace the loss in customers, stability in revenue flow would decrease. Xplora has a large digital platform and could thus be subject to hacking, which could damage the company’s reputation.

Financials

NOKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 689 813 941
Sales growth (%) 37,3 18 15,7
EBITDA 33 67 109
EBITDA margin (%) 4,9 8,3 11,5
EBIT adj. 0 31 84
EBIT adj. margin (%) 0 3,8 8,9
Pretax profit -30 -4 55
EPS -0,48 -0,09 0,96
EPS growth (%) -73,9 -81,3 -1160,5
EPS adj. 0,19 0,87 1,43
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 36,8 17,6 10,3
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -6092,3 38,6 13,3
P/E (x) -60,7 -323,7 30,5
P/E adj. (x) 155 33,7 20,6
EV/sales (x) 1,79 1,46 1,19
FCF yield (%) 2,9 3,4 5,2
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 2,9 3,4 5,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -2 -1,7 -1,7
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -2 -1,7 -1,7
NOKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 689 813 941
COGS -357 -406 -460
Gross profit 332 407 481
Other operating items -299 -340 -372
EBITDA 33 67 109
Depreciation and amortisation -15 -21 -21
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 18 46 88
EO Items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -41 -38 -26
EBIT -23 8 61
Net financial items -7 -12 -7
Pretax profit -30 -4 55
Tax 8 0 -12
Net profit -21 -4 43
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -21 -4 43
EPS -0,48 -0,09 0,96
EPS adj. 0,19 0,87 1,43
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 27,9 -11,6 22
Gross margin (%) 48,2 50,1 51,1
EBITDA margin (%) 4,9 8,3 11,5
EBITA margin (%) 2,7 5,7 9,3
EBIT margin (%) -3,3 1 6,5
Pre-tax margin (%) -4,3 -0,4 5,8
Net margin (%) -3,1 -0,5 4,5
Sales growth (%) 37,3 18 15,7
EBITDA growth (%) -190,8 101,7 60,9
EBITA growth (%) -139,4 151,3 89,7
EBIT growth (%) -73,9 -135,2 N/A
Net profit growth (%) -72,4 -81,3 -1160,5
EPS growth (%) -73,9 -81,3 -1160,5
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -6,2 -1,2 11,8
ROE adj. (%) 5,8 10,1 19
ROCE (%) -7,4 -0,9 12,8
ROCE adj. (%) 2,9 8,5 18,9
ROIC (%) 4,4 20,9 31,7
ROIC adj. (%) 4,4 20,9 31,7
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 33 67 109
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 4,9 8,3 11,5
EBITDA lease adj. 33 67 109
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 4,9 8,3 11,5
EBITA adj. 18 46 88
EBITA adj. margin (%) 2,7 5,7 9,3
EBIT adj. 0 31 84
EBIT adj. margin (%) 0 3,8 8,9
Pretax profit Adj. 12 35 81
Net profit Adj. 20 34 69
Net profit to shareholders adj. 20 34 69
Net adj. margin (%) 2,9 4,2 7,3
NOKm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA 33 67 109
Goodwill 138 118 96
Net financial items -7 -12 -7
Other intangible assets 80 50 46
Paid tax 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1 1 1
Non-cash items 4 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 31 55 102
Total other fixed assets 7 5 2
Change in working capital 30 9 -14
Fixed assets 226 174 144
Operating cash flow 62 64 87
Inventories 108 100 109
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Receivables 75 86 100
Capex intangible fixed assets -24 -20 -20
Other current assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 137 177 245
Free cash flow 38 44 67
Total assets 547 538 598
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 338 336 387
Share issues and buybacks 18 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Total equity 338 336 387
Other non-cash items 0 0 0
Long-term debt 70 66 66
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 47 54 63
Other current liabilities 92 82 82
Total liabilities and equity 547 538 598
Net IB debt -68 -112 -179
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -68 -112 -179
Net IB debt excl. leasing -68 -112 -179
Capital employed 408 401 453
Capital invested 270 224 208
Working capital 44 50 64
Market cap. diluted (m) 1298 1298 1298
Net IB debt adj. -68 -112 -179
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 1231 1186 1119
Total assets turnover (%) 130,7 149,9 165,7
Working capital/sales (%) 10,1 5,8 6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -20 -33,3 -46,3
Net debt / market cap (%) -5,2 -8,6 -13,8
Equity ratio (%) 61,8 62,4 64,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -20 -33,3 -46,3
Current ratio 2,3 2,66 3,12
EBITDA/net interest N/A N/A N/A
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -2 -1,7 -1,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -2 -1,7 -1,7
Interest coverage N/A N/A N/A
NOKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 44 44 44
Diluted shares adj. 44 44 44
EPS -0,48 -0,09 0,96
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. 0,19 0,87 1,43
BVPS 7,94 7,65 7,6
BVPS adj. 2,71 3,79 5,56
Net IB debt/share -1,53 -2,53 -4,06
Share price 29,4 29,4 29,4
Market cap. (m) 1298 1298 1298
P/E (x) -60,7 -323,7 30,5
EV/sales (x) 1,79 1,46 1,19
EV/EBITDA (x) 36,8 17,6 10,3
EV/EBITA (x) 67 25,7 12,8
EV/EBIT (x) -53,8 147,4 18,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 2,9 3,4 5,2
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 2,9 3,4 5,2
P/BVPS (x) 3,7 3,84 3,87
P/BVPS adj. (x) 6,5 5,97 4,45
P/E adj. (x) 155 33,7 20,6
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 36,8 17,6 10,3
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 67 25,7 12,8
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -6092,3 38,6 13,3
EV/CE (x) 3 3 2,5
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 3,5 2,5 2,1
Capex/depreciation 1,6 0,9 1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 47,99 48,27 49,23

Equity research

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Passesta AS 13.5 % 13.5 % 2 Dec 2024
Harald Ulltveit-Moe 6.1 % 6.1 % 2 Dec 2024
Eden AS 5.1 % 5.1 % 2 Dec 2024
Vinterstua AS 4.6 % 4.6 % 2 Dec 2024
S. Munkhaugen AS 4.5 % 4.5 % 2 Dec 2024
MP Pensjon PK 4.3 % 4.3 % 2 Dec 2024
Mk Capital AS 3.0 % 3.0 % 2 Dec 2024
Fougner Invest AS 2.6 % 2.6 % 2 Dec 2024
Camelback 2.6 % 2.6 % 2 Dec 2024
Sten Kirkbak 2.5 % 2.5 % 2 Dec 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB