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Petrolia Noco

Petrolia Noco

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Petrolia Noco is an NCS oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company. Its primary activity in the oil and gas life cycle is the exploration phase, in particular in near-field exploration, with the Tampen area in the North Sea being defined as the core focus.

Value uplift from exploration success and monetisation of the Dugong discovery.

The main risk in the case is related to exploration success in its drilling programme, as well as successfully maturing the Dugong discovery. Other risks relate to funding requirements and limited liquidity in the share.

Financials

NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 8 10 5
Sales growth (%) 95,7 26,8 -46,3
EBITDA -223 -119 -40
EBITDA margin (%) -2931,4 -1227,7 -765,4
EBIT adj -228 -121 -41
EBIT adj margin (%) -2985,6 -1248,3 -786,9
Pretax profit -239 -138 -53
EPS rep -0,36 -0,21 -0,06
EPS growth (%) -78,8 42,6 72,7
EPS adj -0,36 -0,21 -0,06
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -1,9 -3,9 -14,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) -1,9 -3,9 -14
P/E (x) -5,5 -9,7 -35,4
P/E adj (x) -5,5 -9,7 -35,4
EV/sales (x) 56,2 48,3 109,9
FCF yield (%) -49,6 -13,3 -35,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,6 -1,5 -7,1
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -49,6 -13,3 -35,8
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0,6 -1,5 -7,1
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 8 10 5
COGS -231 -128 -45
Gross profit -223 -119 -40
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA -223 -119 -40
Depreciation and amortisation -4 -2 -1
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -228 -121 -41
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -228 -121 -41
Net financial items -11 -17 -12
Pretax profit -239 -138 -53
Tax 186 108 45
Net profit -52 -30 -8
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -52 -30 -8
EPS -0,36 -0,21 -0,06
EPS Adj -0,36 -0,21 -0,06
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -78,1 -78,2 -84,6
Gross margin (%) -2931,4 -1227,7 -765,4
EBITDA margin (%) -2931,4 -1227,7 -765,4
EBITA margin (%) -2985,6 -1248,3 -786,9
EBIT margin (%) -2985,6 -1248,3 -786,9
Pretax margin (%) -3131,3 -1424,6 -1024,9
Net margin (%) -686,7 -310,7 -158
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 95,7 26,8 -46,3
EBITDA growth (%) -200,9 46,9 66,5
EBIT growth (%) -189,4 47 66,1
Net profit growth (%) -94,5 42,6 72,7
EPS growth (%) -78,8 42,6 72,7
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -150,9 -237,1 127,1
ROE Adj (%) -150,9 -237,1 127,1
ROCE (%) -135 -67,5 -76,8
ROCE Adj(%) -135 -67,5 -76,8
ROIC (%) -25,5 -11,1 -3
ROIC Adj (%) -25,5 -11,1 -3
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj -223 -119 -40
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -2931,4 -1227,7 -765,4
EBITDA lease Adj -223 -119 -40
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) -2931,4 -1227,7 -765,4
EBITA Adj -228 -121 -41
EBITA Adj margin (%) -2985,6 -1248,3 -786,9
EBIT Adj -228 -121 -41
EBIT Adj margin (%) -2985,6 -1248,3 -786,9
Pretax profit Adj -239 -138 -53
Net profit Adj -52 -30 -8
Net profit to shareholders Adj -52 -30 -8
Net Adj margin (%) -686,7 -310,7 -158
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA -223 -119 -40
Net financial items -11 -17 -12
Paid tax 200 141 121
Non-cash items -59 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -93 5 69
Change in WC 209 86 0
Operating cash flow 116 91 69
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -260 -130 -173
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -144 -38 -104
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 41 0 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items 0 0 0
Balance Sheet (NOKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 5 17 189
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 194 223 223
Fixed assets 199 240 411
Inventories 52 52 52
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 118 -23 -23
Cash and liquid assets 73 -59 -282
Total assets 441 210 158
Shareholders equity 28 -2 -11
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 28 -2 -11
Long-term debt 213 119 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 133 25 -20
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 19 19 19
Other current liabilities 48 48 169
Total liabilities and equity 441 210 158
Net IB debt 138 177 280
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 138 177 280
Net IB debt excl. leasing 138 177 280
Capital invested 286 187 238
Working capital 102 -39 -160
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 290 290 290
Net IB debt Adj 138 177 280
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 428 467 570
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 2,5 3 2,8
Working capital / sales (%) 917,6 327 -1911,1
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 499,1 -7508,6 -2657,1
Net debt / market cap (%) 31,9 60,9 96,6
Equity ratio (%) 6,3 -1,1 -6,7
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 499,1 -7508,6 -2657,1
Current ratio (%) 358,6 -44,4 -134,1
EBITDA / net interest (%) -2011,5 -696,2 -321,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -61,8 -148,8 -705,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -61,8 -148,8 -705,6
Interest cover (%) -2048,7 -707,8 -330,6
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 145 145 145
Fully diluted shares Adj 145 145 145
EPS -0,36 -0,21 -0,06
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -0,36 -0,21 -0,06
BVPS 0,19 -0,02 -0,07
BVPS Adj 0,19 -0,02 -0,07
Net IB debt / share 1 1,2 1,9
Share price 2,98 2 2
Market cap. (m) 432 290 290
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -5,5 -9,7 -35,4
EV/sales 56,17 48,29 109,9
EV/EBITDA -1,9 -3,9 -14,4
EV/EBITA -1,9 -3,9 -14
EV/EBIT -1,9 -3,9 -14
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -49,6 -13,3 -35,8
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -49,6 -13,3 -35,8
P/BVPS 10,48 -123,36 -27,5
P/BVPS Adj 10,48 -123,36 -27,5
P/E Adj -5,5 -9,7 -35,4
EV/EBITDA Adj -1,9 -3,9 -14,4
EV/EBITA Adj -1,9 -3,9 -14
EV/EBIT Adj -1,9 -3,9 -14
EV/cap. employed 1,8 4 -54,1
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 3407 1342,2 3325,6
Capex / depreciation 6286,4 6515,4 15470,5
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 5601,6 749,1 91,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 89,1 11,5 0,6

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Independent Oil & Resources PLC 46.0 % 46.0 % 10 Aug 2022
Larsen Oil & Gas AS 21.0 % 21.0 % 10 Aug 2022
Berge Gerdt Larsen 6.4 % 6.4 % 10 Aug 2022
NOCO (UK) LTD 6.3 % 6.3 % 10 Aug 2022
Increased Oil Recovery AS 5.8 % 5.8 % 10 Aug 2022
Tokala AS 1.1 % 1.1 % 10 Aug 2022
Trommestad Ole 1.1 % 1.1 % 10 Aug 2022
Ø. H. Holding AS 0.7 % 0.7 % 10 Aug 2022
Elektroland Norge AS 0.4 % 0.4 % 10 Aug 2022
Rolf Arild Olsen 0.4 % 0.4 % 10 Aug 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB