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Petrolia Noco

Petrolia Noco

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Petrolia Noco is an NCS oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company. Its primary activity in the oil and gas life cycle is the exploration phase, in particular in near-field exploration. The company’s main asset is the 20% partnered stake in the Dugong discovery.

The main risk in the case is related to exploration success in its drilling programme, as well as successfully maturing the Dugong discovery. Other risks relate to funding requirements and limited liquidity in the share.

Financials

NOKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 34 9 4
Sales growth (%) 751,3 -74,3 -51,6
EBITDA -104 -37 -104
EBITDA margin (%) -305,3 -416,3 -2434,7
EBIT adj. -107 -38 -104
EBIT adj. margin (%) -313,7 -430,7 -2445,8
Pretax profit -124 -54 -121
EPS -0,23 -0,07 -0,17
EPS growth (%) -45,4 -67,5 123,7
EPS adj. -0,23 -0,07 -0,17
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -3,8 -10,9 -4,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -3,7 -10,6 -4,7
P/E (x) -8,3 -25,6 -11,4
P/E adj. (x) -8,3 -25,6 -11,4
EV/sales (x) 11,52 45,56 115,5
FCF yield (%) -28,9 -2,3 -30
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -28,9 -2,3 -30
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,9 -2,6 -1,8
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0,9 2,6 1,8
NOKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 34 9 4
COGS -139 -45 -108
Gross profit -104 -37 -104
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA -104 -37 -104
Depreciation and amortisation -3 -1 0
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -107 -38 -104
EO Items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -107 -38 -104
Net financial items -16 -16 -17
Pretax profit -124 -54 -121
Tax 87 42 94
Net profit -37 -12 -27
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -37 -12 -27
EPS -0,23 -0,07 -0,17
EPS adj. -0,23 -0,07 -0,17
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 70,3 78 78
Gross margin (%) -305,3 -416,3 -2434,7
EBITDA margin (%) -305,3 -416,3 -2434,7
EBITA margin (%) -313,7 -430,7 -2445,8
EBIT margin (%) -313,7 -430,7 -2445,8
Pre-tax margin (%) -361,3 -614,9 -2840,9
Net margin (%) -107,1 -135,2 -624,8
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) 751,3 -74,3 -51,6
EBITDA growth (%) -49,3 -64,9 183,2
EBITA growth (%) -49,2 -64,7 175
EBIT growth (%) -49,2 -64,7 N/A
Net profit growth (%) -39,7 -67,5 123,7
EPS growth (%) -45,4 -67,5 123,7
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -207,6 -179,3 210,9
ROE adj. (%) -207,6 -179,3 210,9
ROCE (%) -78,2 -28,6 -70,6
ROCE adj. (%) -78,2 -28,6 -70,6
ROIC (%) -48 -8,3 -17,6
ROIC adj. (%) -48 -8,3 -17,6
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -104 -37 -104
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -305,3 -416,3 -2434,7
EBITDA lease adj. -104 -37 -104
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -305,3 -416,3 -2434,7
EBITA adj. -107 -38 -104
EBITA adj. margin (%) -313,7 -430,7 -2445,8
EBIT adj. -107 -38 -104
EBIT adj. margin (%) -313,7 -430,7 -2445,8
Pretax profit Adj. -124 -54 -121
Net profit Adj. -37 -12 -27
Net profit to shareholders adj. -37 -12 -27
Net adj. margin (%) -107,1 -135,2 -624,8
NOKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA -104 -37 -104
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items -16 -16 -17
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Paid tax -30 86 71
Tangible fixed assets 2 41 59
Non-cash items -64 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -214 33 -49
Total other fixed assets 152 152 174
Change in working capital 114 0 68
Fixed assets 154 193 234
Operating cash flow -100 33 18
Inventories 17 17 17
Capex tangible fixed assets 12 -40 -109
Receivables 0 0 0
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 88 88 88
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 55 3 26
Free cash flow -88 -7 -91
Total assets 314 301 365
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 13 1 -26
Share issues and buybacks 2 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Total equity 13 1 -26
Other non-cash items 8 1 62
Long-term debt 148 103 217
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 112 112 49
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 24 24 24
Other current liabilities 17 62 101
Total liabilities and equity 314 301 365
Net IB debt 90 97 188
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 90 97 188
Net IB debt excl. leasing 90 97 188
Capital employed 161 104 191
Capital invested 102 98 162
Working capital 64 19 -20
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 304 304 304
Net IB debt adj. 90 97 188
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 394 401 492
Total assets turnover (%) 10,8 2,9 1,3
Working capital/sales (%) 49,5 473 -3,5
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) 714,3 14118,2 -725,3
Net debt / market cap (%) 29,6 31,9 61,9
Equity ratio (%) 4 0,2 -7,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 714,3 14118,2 -725,3
Current ratio 3,93 1,27 1,05
EBITDA/net interest 6,4 2,3 6,2
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,9 -2,6 -1,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -0,9 -2,6 -1,8
Interest coverage 6,6 2,3 6,2
NOKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 160 160 160
Diluted shares adj. 160 160 160
EPS -0,23 -0,07 -0,17
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -0,23 -0,07 -0,17
BVPS 0,08 0 -0,16
BVPS adj. 0,08 0 -0,16
Net IB debt/share 0,56 0,61 1,18
Share price 1,9 1,9 1,9
Market cap. (m) 304 304 304
Valuation N/A N/A N/A
P/E (x) -8,3 -25,6 -11,4
EV/sales (x) 11,52 45,56 115,5
EV/EBITDA (x) -3,8 -10,9 -4,7
EV/EBITA (x) -3,7 -10,6 -4,7
EV/EBIT (x) -3,7 -10,6 -4,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -28,9 -2,3 -30
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -28,9 -2,3 -30
P/BVPS (x) 24,16 443,06 -11,72
P/BVPS adj. (x) 24,16 443,06 -11,72
P/E adj. (x) -8,3 -25,6 -11,4
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -3,8 -10,9 -4,7
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -3,7 -10,6 -4,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -3,7 -10,6 -4,7
EV/CE (x) 2,4 3,9 2,6
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 35,9 456,2 2564,1
Capex/depreciation -4,3 31,9 230,8
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 671,1 98,6 183,6
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 157,49 3,09 0,8

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Independent Oil & Resources PLC 46.0 % 46.0 % 28 Mar 2023
Larsen Oil & Gas AS 21.0 % 21.0 % 28 Mar 2023
Berge Gerdt Larsen 6.4 % 6.4 % 28 Mar 2023
NOCO (UK) LTD 6.3 % 6.3 % 28 Mar 2023
Increased Oil Recovery AS 5.8 % 5.8 % 28 Mar 2023
Trommestad Ole 1.4 % 1.4 % 28 Mar 2023
Tokala AS 1.0 % 1.0 % 28 Mar 2023
Elektroland Norge AS 0.4 % 0.4 % 28 Mar 2023
Rolf Arild Olsen 0.3 % 0.3 % 28 Mar 2023
Sølve Nilsen 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Dec 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB