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Ascelia Pharma

Ascelia Pharma

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Ascelia Pharma is a Swedish biopharma company listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm main market since March 2019. The company is focused on the development of a novel non-gadolinium based MRI contrast agent for the detection of liver metastases in cancer patients with impaired kidney function. The product Orviglance has successfully completed clinical Ph 3 (SPARKLE) in 2024 and is now in preparations towards submission of a NDA to the US FDA by mid'25. The second pipeline candidate Oncoral (novel chemotherapy formulation for gastric cancer) completed Ph 1 successfully and is Ph 2-ready.

Ascelia's lead drug candidate Orviglance has passed clinical development. Remaining risks remain FDA approval (small risk) and failure of meeting commercial targets (greater risk). Ascelia will also need to find a licensing partner to successfully launch the product in the US and prolong the company's financial runway until sufficient revenue is generated from partner milestones and royalties to reach profitability.

Financials

SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 0 70 61
Sales growth (%) N/A N/A -12,8
EBITDA -68 -10 -38
EBITDA margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
EBIT adj. -68 -10 -38
EBIT adj. margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
Pretax profit -80 -15 -38
EPS -0,83 -0,13 -0,32
EPS growth (%) -74,3 -84,5 N/A
EPS adj. -0,83 -0,13 -0,32
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
P/E (x) N/A N/A N/A
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A N/A
EV/sales (x) N/A 4,14 5,37
FCF yield (%) -20,8 -3,9 -10,3
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -21,1 -3,9 -10,3
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0,7 7,7 1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0,7 7,8 1
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 0 70 61
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 0 70 61
Other operating items -68 -80 -99
EBITDA -68 -10 -38
Depreciation and amortisation 0 0 0
of which leasing depreciation N/A N/A N/A
EBITA -68 -10 -38
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -68 -10 -38
Net financial items -12 -5 0
Pretax profit -80 -15 -38
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -80 -15 -38
Minority interest N/A N/A N/A
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -80 -15 -38
EPS -0,83 -0,13 -0,32
EPS adj. -0,83 -0,13 -0,32
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments N/A N/A N/A
Tax rate (%) 0,1 0,6 0
Gross margin (%) N/A 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
EBITA margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
EBIT margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
Pre-tax margin (%) N/A -21,6 -61,7
Net margin (%) N/A -21,4 -61,7
Sales growth (%) N/A N/A -12,8
EBITDA growth (%) -38,9 -85,8 292,3
EBITA growth (%) -38,9 -85,8 292,3
EBIT growth (%) -38,9 -85,8 N/A
Net profit growth (%) -26,8 -81,3 151,1
EPS growth (%) -74,3 -84,5 N/A
Year N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -104,4 -14,9 -36,3
ROE adj. (%) -104,4 -14,9 -36,3
ROCE (%) -73,6 -7,8 -34,5
ROCE adj. (%) -73,6 -7,8 -34,5
ROIC (%) -163,8 -24,7 -78,1
ROIC adj. (%) -163,8 -24,7 -78,1
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -68 -10 -38
EBITDA adj. margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
EBITDA lease adj. -68 -10 -38
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
EBITA adj. -68 -10 -38
EBITA adj. margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
EBIT adj. -68 -10 -38
EBIT adj. margin (%) N/A -13,7 -61,7
Pretax profit Adj. -80 -15 -38
Net profit Adj. -80 -15 -38
Net profit to shareholders adj. -80 -15 -38
Net adj. margin (%) N/A -21,4 -61,7
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
EBITDA -68 -10 -38
Goodwill N/A N/A N/A
Net financial items -12 -5 0
Other intangible assets 57 57 57
Paid tax 1 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Non-cash items -8 20 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -86 5 -38
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Change in working capital 24 -19 0
Fixed assets 57 57 57
Operating cash flow -63 -14 -38
Inventories N/A N/A N/A
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Receivables 6 6 6
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 3 3 3
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 75 80 42
Free cash flow -63 -14 -38
Total assets 141 145 108
Dividend paid N/A N/A N/A
Shareholders equity 79 122 85
Share issues and buybacks 90 39 0
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability amortisation -1 0 0
Total equity 79 122 85
Other non-cash items 3 0 0
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 25 5 5
Accounts payable 5 5 5
Other current liabilities 32 13 13
Total liabilities and equity 141 145 108
Net IB debt -50 -74 -37
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -50 -74 -37
Net IB debt excl. leasing -50 -74 -37
Capital employed 104 128 90
Capital invested 29 48 48
Working capital -28 -9 -9
Market cap. diluted (m) 302 364 364
Net IB debt adj. -50 -74 -37
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 252 290 328
Total assets turnover (%) 0 48,9 48,3
Working capital/sales (%) N/A -26,5 -14,7
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Year N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -63,2 -60,6 -43,1
Net debt / market cap (%) -16,5 -20,4 -10
Equity ratio (%) 56 84,3 78,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -63,2 -60,6 -43,1
Current ratio 1,35 3,88 2,22
EBITDA/net interest 5,5 1,7 N/A
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0,7 7,7 1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 0,7 7,8 1
Interest coverage 4,7 1,5 N/A
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Shares outstanding adj. 96 116 116
Diluted shares adj. 96 116 116
EPS -0,83 -0,13 -0,32
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -0,83 -0,13 -0,32
BVPS 0,82 1,06 0,73
BVPS adj. 0,23 0,56 0,24
Net IB debt/share -0,52 -0,64 -0,32
Share price 3,14 3,14 3,14
Market cap. (m) 302 364 364
P/E (x) N/A N/A N/A
EV/sales (x) N/A 4,14 5,37
EV/EBITDA (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
EV/EBITA (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
EV/EBIT (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -20,8 -3,9 -10,3
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -21,1 -3,9 -10,3
P/BVPS (x) 3,82 2,98 4,3
P/BVPS adj. (x) 13,8 5,58 13,16
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A N/A
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -3,7 -30,2 -8,7
EV/CE (x) 2,4 2,3 3,6
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) N/A 0 0
Capex/depreciation N/A N/A N/A
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Avanza Pension 8.2 % 8.3 % 28 Apr 2025
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 3.8 % 3.8 % 28 Apr 2025
ÖstVäst Capital Management 3.5 % 3.5 % 13 Feb 2025
Fjärde AP-fonden 2.9 % 2.9 % 28 Apr 2025
Mats Thorén 2.4 % 2.5 % 28 Apr 2025
Oscar Ahlgren 1.9 % 1.9 % 28 Apr 2025
Investment AB Pilhamn 1.7 % 1.7 % 28 Apr 2025
Salén Group 1.7 % 1.7 % 28 Apr 2025
Connys Alltransporter AB 1.3 % 1.3 % 28 Apr 2025
Kibegeon ApS 1.2 % 1.2 % 15 Apr 2025
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB