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Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper is a paper production company focusing on high quality coated and uncoated paper products. The company currently consist of three paper mills and five brands: Amber, Arctic, Arctic Volume, Munken and G. With a majority ownership of the Rottneros AB Group, the company complements their product portfolio with pulp production. Arctic Paper's main clients are printing houses, publishers and wholesalers, serving industries such as advertising and design indirectly.

Sustainability Information

Key risks include: (i) cyclicality of both pulp and paper demand, (ii) Arctic Paper's net short position on pulp, pulpwood, energy and chemicals prices, (iii) a structural decline in paper demand, (iv) potential losses stemming from hedging against electricity and pulp prices and (v) production facility-related issues such as risk of injuries, machinery breakdown, fires and other accidents that can adversely impact the company's production capabilities.

PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 3373 3349 3733
Sales growth (%) -5 -0,7 11,5
EBITDA 291 244 310
EBITDA margin (%) 8,6 7,3 8,3
EBIT adj. 142 118 184
EBIT adj. margin (%) 4,2 3,5 4,9
Pretax profit 157 84 159
EPS 1,77 0,92 1,6
EPS growth (%) -50,5 -47,7 73
EPS adj. 1,77 0,92 1,6
DPS 0,53 0 0,48
EV/EBITDA (x) 3,8 5,4 4,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 7,9 11,2 6,9
P/E (x) 7,6 14,5 8,4
P/E adj. (x) 7,6 14,5 8,4
EV/sales (x) 0,33 0,4 0,34
FCF yield (%) -11,4 -6,4 7,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -12,4 -7,3 6,2
Dividend yield (%) 4 0 3,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,6 0,2 -0,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -0,5 0,3 -0,1
PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 3373 3349 3733
COGS -2743 -2792 -3098
Gross profit 630 556 635
Other operating items -339 -313 -325
EBITDA 291 244 310
Depreciation and amortisation -119 -126 -126
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 172 118 184
EO Items 30 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 172 118 184
Net financial items -15 -34 -25
Pretax profit 157 84 159
Tax -25 -17 -31
Net profit 132 66 129
Minority interest -10 -35 -18
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 122 31 111
EPS 1,77 0,92 1,6
EPS adj. 1,77 0,92 1,6
Total extraordinary items after tax 30 0 0
Leasing payments -9 -8 -8
Tax rate (%) 15,8 20,8 19,3
Gross margin (%) 18,7 16,6 17
EBITDA margin (%) 8,6 7,3 8,3
EBITA margin (%) 5,1 3,5 4,9
EBIT margin (%) 5,1 3,5 4,9
Pre-tax margin (%) 4,6 2,5 4,3
Net margin (%) 3,9 2 3,4
Sales growth (%) -5 -0,7 11,5
EBITDA growth (%) -38,8 -16,2 27,3
EBITA growth (%) -51,9 -31,3 56
EBIT growth (%) -51,9 -31,3 56
Net profit growth (%) -51,5 -49,7 93,8
EPS growth (%) -50,5 -47,7 73
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 8,5 2,1 7
ROE adj. (%) 6,4 2,1 7
ROCE (%) 8,9 5,9 8,3
ROCE adj. (%) 7,3 5,9 8,3
ROIC (%) 9,6 5,3 7,7
ROIC adj. (%) 7,9 5,3 7,7
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 261 244 310
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 7,7 7,3 8,3
EBITDA lease adj. 252 235 302
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 7,5 7 8,1
EBITA adj. 142 118 184
EBITA adj. margin (%) 4,2 3,5 4,9
EBIT adj. 142 118 184
EBIT adj. margin (%) 4,2 3,5 4,9
Pretax profit Adj. 127 84 159
Net profit Adj. 102 66 129
Net profit to shareholders adj. 92 31 111
Net adj. margin (%) 3 2 3,4
PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
EBITDA 291 244 310
Goodwill 8 8 8
Net financial items -15 -34 -25
Other intangible assets 47 55 55
Paid tax -46 -69 -31
Tangible fixed assets 1322 1588 1627
Non-cash items 34 -45 -25
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 264 96 230
Total other fixed assets 29 21 21
Change in working capital -77 113 0
Fixed assets 1405 1672 1711
Operating cash flow 187 209 230
Inventories 514 547 594
Capex tangible fixed assets -293 -269 -165
Receivables 451 493 545
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 51 78 85
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 364 313 394
Free cash flow -106 -60 65
Total assets 2786 3102 3329
Dividend paid -69 0 0
Shareholders equity 1443 1538 1640
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 327 337 355
Leasing liability amortisation -9 -8 -8
Total equity 1769 1875 1995
Other non-cash items -18 -142 25
Long-term debt 124 98 98
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 142 144 144
Short-term debt 103 278 278
Accounts payable 529 590 684
Other current liabilities 118 119 131
Total liabilities and equity 2786 3102 3329
Net IB debt -165 43 -39
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -165 43 -39
Net IB debt excl. leasing -165 43 -39
Capital employed 1996 2250 2371
Capital invested 1604 1917 1956
Working capital 369 409 409
Market cap. diluted (m) 925 925 925
Net IB debt adj. -137 63 -19
Market value of minority 327 337 355
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 1114 1324 1261
Total assets turnover (%) 122,5 113,8 116,1
Working capital/sales (%) 10,5 11,6 11
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -9,3 2,3 -2
Net debt / market cap (%) -17,9 4,6 -4,2
Equity ratio (%) 63,5 60,4 59,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -7,7 3,4 -0,9
Current ratio 1,84 1,45 1,48
EBITDA/net interest 19,5 7,1 12,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,6 0,2 -0,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -0,5 0,3 -0,1
Interest coverage 9,7 3 6
PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
Shares outstanding adj. 69 69 69
Diluted shares adj. 69 69 69
EPS 1,77 0,92 1,6
Dividend per share 0,53 0 0,48
EPS adj. 1,77 0,92 1,6
BVPS 20,82 22,2 23,68
BVPS adj. 20,03 21,29 22,76
Net IB debt/share -1,98 0,91 -0,27
Share price 34,35 34,35 34,35
Market cap. (m) 925 925 925
P/E (x) 7,6 14,5 8,4
EV/sales (x) 0,33 0,4 0,34
EV/EBITDA (x) 3,8 5,4 4,1
EV/EBITA (x) 6,5 11,2 6,9
EV/EBIT (x) 6,5 11,2 6,9
Dividend yield (%) 4 0 3,6
FCF yield (%) -11,4 -6,4 7,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -12,4 -7,3 6,2
P/BVPS (x) 0,64 0,6 0,56
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,64 0,6 0,57
P/E adj. (x) 7,6 14,5 8,4
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 4,3 5,4 4,1
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 7,9 11,2 6,9
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 7,9 11,2 6,9
EV/CE (x) 0,6 0,6 0,5
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 8,7 8 4,4
Capex/depreciation 2,5 2,1 1,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 22,2 16,9 10,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 9,04 7,95 7,77

Equity research

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Media

Arctic Paper - Company presentation with CFO Katarzyna Wojtkowiak
Arctic Paper - Fireside chat with President & CEO Michal Jarczyński

Main shareholders - Arctic Paper

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Thomas Onstad 68.1 % 68.1 % 31 Dec 2023
Norges Bank Investment Management 1.9 % 1.9 % 31 Dec 2024
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.4 % 0.4 % 30 Apr 2025
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.2 % 0.2 % 30 Apr 2025
SEB Funds 0.2 % 0.2 % 30 Apr 2025
Per Lundeen 0.1 % 0.1 % 31 Dec 2023
Acadian Asset Management 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Apr 2025
Skandia Fonder 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Apr 2025
New York City Employee Retirement System Group (NYCERS) 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Jun 2024
Kärnavfallsfonden 0.0 % 0.0 % 31 Dec 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB