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Energy Save

Energy Save

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Energy Save is a Swedish heat pump manufacturer (~80% residential, ~20% commercial) that uses in-house R&D and outsourced production to deliver growth above the market (>20%) and a 15% EBIT margin in the longer-term. The company has grown sales by ~30% p.a. historically, and sells its products through distributors under its own brand, and to OEMs through a private label approach

Slow uptick in heat pump demand and lack of transition from fossil-fuelled heating, lower-than-expected margin support from higher volumes, Aira partnership not being extended, continued negative cash flow generation unless volumes improve

Financials

SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 246 255 374
Sales growth (%) 44,3 3,6 46,6
EBITDA -10 -8 26
EBITDA margin (%) -3,9 -3,2 6,9
EBIT adj. -16 -15 19
EBIT adj. margin (%) -6,5 -5,7 5
Pretax profit -16 -15 19
EPS -2,16 -2,27 2,26
EPS growth (%) -60,7 5 -199,5
EPS adj. -2,16 -2,27 2,26
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -12,1 -14,3 4,4
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -7,4 -8,1 6
P/E (x) N/A N/A 10,2
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 10,2
EV/sales (x) 0,48 0,46 0,3
FCF yield (%) -17,6 -0,4 3,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -17,6 -0,4 3,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 3,5 4 -1,5
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 3,5 4 -1,5
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 246 255 374
COGS -160 -166 -243
Gross profit 86 89 131
Other operating items -96 -98 -105
EBITDA -10 -8 26
Depreciation and amortisation -6 -6 -7
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -16 -15 19
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -16 -15 19
Net financial items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -16 -15 19
Tax 2 0 -4
Net profit -14 -15 15
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -14 -15 15
EPS -2,16 -2,27 2,26
EPS adj. -2,16 -2,27 2,26
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 12,7 0 20
Gross margin (%) 35 35,1 35
EBITDA margin (%) -3,9 -3,2 6,9
EBITA margin (%) -6,5 -5,7 5
EBIT margin (%) -6,5 -5,7 5
Pre-tax margin (%) -6,6 -5,9 5
Net margin (%) -5,8 -5,9 4
Sales growth (%) 44,3 3,6 46,6
EBITDA growth (%) -56,8 -14,8 -413,9
EBITA growth (%) -43,4 -8,1 -228,7
EBIT growth (%) -43,4 -8,1 -228,7
Net profit growth (%) -48,3 5 -199,5
EPS growth (%) -60,7 5 -199,5
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -7,7 -8,6 8,6
ROE adj. (%) -7,7 -8,6 8,6
ROCE (%) -7,8 -7,5 9,7
ROCE adj. (%) -7,8 -7,5 9,7
ROIC (%) -9,2 -10,5 11
ROIC adj. (%) -9,2 -10,5 11
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -10 -8 26
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -3,9 -3,2 6,9
EBITDA lease adj. -10 -8 26
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -3,9 -3,2 6,9
EBITA adj. -16 -15 19
EBITA adj. margin (%) -6,5 -5,7 5
EBIT adj. -16 -15 19
EBIT adj. margin (%) -6,5 -5,7 5
Pretax profit Adj. -16 -15 19
Net profit Adj. -14 -15 15
Net profit to shareholders adj. -14 -15 15
Net adj. margin (%) -5,8 -5,9 4
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
EBITDA -10 -8 26
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 39 40 43
Paid tax 0 0 -4
Tangible fixed assets 5 7 10
Non-cash items 4 0 0
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Cash flow before change in WC -6 -9 22
Total other fixed assets 21 21 21
Change in working capital 0 18 -5
Fixed assets 65 68 73
Operating cash flow -6 9 17
Inventories 99 87 93
Capex tangible fixed assets -3 -2 -3
Receivables 21 29 50
Capex intangible fixed assets -18 -8 -9
Other current assets 6 10 15
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 54 53 59
Free cash flow -27 -1 5
Total assets 245 247 290
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 180 165 180
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation N/A N/A N/A
Total equity 180 165 180
Other non-cash items 19 0 0
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 14 14 14
Short-term debt 19 19 19
Accounts payable 17 25 37
Other current liabilities 12 21 37
Total liabilities and equity 245 247 290
Net IB debt -34 -33 -38
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -34 -33 -38
Net IB debt excl. leasing -34 -33 -38
Capital employed 201 186 201
Capital invested 147 132 142
Working capital 97 79 84
Market cap. diluted (m) 151 151 151
Net IB debt adj. -34 -33 -38
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -20 -20 -20
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 117 118 113
Total assets turnover (%) 92,3 103,6 139,2
Working capital/sales (%) 41,6 34,6 21,9
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -18,6 -19,9 -21,1
Net debt / market cap (%) -22,3 -21,8 -25,2
Equity ratio (%) 73,6 66,9 62,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -18,6 -19,9 -21,1
Current ratio 3,74 2,74 2,33
EBITDA/net interest 27 27,4 103,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 3,5 4 -1,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 3,5 4 -1,5
Interest coverage 44,5 48,8 75,3
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Diluted shares adj. 7 7 7
EPS -2,16 -2,27 2,26
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -2,16 -2,27 2,26
BVPS 27,38 25,11 27,36
BVPS adj. 21,42 18,96 20,9
Net IB debt/share -5,1 -5 -5,78
Share price 22,9 22,9 22,9
Market cap. (m) 151 151 151
P/E (x) N/A N/A 10,2
EV/sales (x) 0,48 0,46 0,3
EV/EBITDA (x) -12,1 -14,3 4,4
EV/EBITA (x) -7,4 -8,1 6
EV/EBIT (x) -7,4 -8,1 6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -17,6 -0,4 3,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -17,6 -0,4 3,4
P/BVPS (x) 0,84 0,91 0,84
P/BVPS adj. (x) 1,07 1,21 1,1
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 10,2
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -12,1 -14,3 4,4
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -7,4 -8,1 6
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -7,4 -8,1 6
EV/CE (x) 0,6 0,6 0,6
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 8,4 3,8 3,2
Capex/depreciation 3,3 1,5 1,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 53,1 29,6 30,6
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 45,8 18,9 21,1
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 16 16 16
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 1,02

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Media

Energy Save - Company presentation with CEO Fredrik Sävenstrand & CFO Helena Wachtmeister

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Main shareholders - Energy Save

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Christian Gulbrandsen 14.2 % 37.4 % 28 Apr 2025
Project Air AB 13.6 % 37.2 % 28 Apr 2025
Theodor Jeansson Jr. 9.0 % 3.2 % 28 Apr 2025
Nordea Funds 7.9 % 2.8 % 28 Apr 2025
Avanza Pension 4.1 % 1.4 % 28 Apr 2025
Henrik Nilsson 3.0 % 1.1 % 28 Apr 2025
Carnegie Fonder 3.0 % 1.0 % 28 Apr 2025
Bo Westerberg 2.3 % 0.8 % 28 Apr 2025
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.1 % 0.8 % 28 Apr 2025
Linus Åke Fredrik Lindström 2.0 % 0.7 % 28 Apr 2025
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB