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Energy Save

Energy Save

Energy Save is a Swedish heat pump manufacturer (~75% residential, ~25% commercial) that uses in-house R&D and outsourced production to deliver growth above the market (>20%) and a 15% EBIT margin in the longer-term. The company has grown sales by ~30% p.a. historically, and sells its products through distributors under its own brand, and to OEMs through a private label approach

Slow uptick in heat pump demand and lack of transition from fossil-fuelled heating, lower-than-expected margin support from higher volumes, Aira partnership not being extended, continued negative cash flow generation unless volumes improve

SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 171 300 384
Sales growth (%) -42,7 75,7 28,1
EBITDA -22 3 26
EBITDA margin (%) -13,1 0,9 6,7
EBIT adj. -28 -4 18
EBIT adj. margin (%) -16,5 -1,2 4,6
Pretax profit -27 -5 16
EPS -4,05 -0,8 2,09
EPS growth (%) -172,4 -80,2 -359,9
EPS adj. -4,05 -0,8 2,09
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -8,7 76,5 8,6
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -6,9 -56,3 12,4
P/E (x) -8,6 -43,5 16,7
P/E adj. (x) -8,6 -43,5 16,7
EV/sales (x) 1,14 0,69 0,57
FCF yield (%) -28 -5,2 -5,6
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -28 -5,2 -5,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 1,6 -8,4 -0,4
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 1,6 -8,4 -0,4
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 171 300 384
COGS -108 -197 -257
Gross profit 63 103 127
Other operating items -85 -100 -101
EBITDA -22 3 26
Depreciation and amortisation -6 -6 -8
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -28 -4 18
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -28 -4 18
Net financial items 1 -2 -2
Pretax profit -27 -5 16
Tax 0 0 -2
Net profit -27 -5 14
Minority interest 1 0 0
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -27 -5 14
EPS -4,05 -0,8 2,09
EPS adj. -4,05 -0,8 2,09
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 15
Gross margin (%) 36,9 34,3 33
EBITDA margin (%) -13,1 0,9 6,7
EBITA margin (%) -16,5 -1,2 4,6
EBIT margin (%) -16,5 -1,2 4,6
Pre-tax margin (%) -16,1 -1,8 4,2
Net margin (%) -16,1 -1,8 3,6
Sales growth (%) -42,7 75,7 28,1
EBITDA growth (%) -147,2 -112,1 848,3
EBITA growth (%) -166,1 -86,9 -580,5
EBIT growth (%) -166,1 -86,9 -580,5
Net profit growth (%) -183 -80,8 -359,9
EPS growth (%) -172,4 -80,2 -359,9
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -12,7 -2,8 7,2
ROE adj. (%) -12,7 -2,8 7,2
ROCE (%) -12,2 -1,8 8,5
ROCE adj. (%) -12,7 -1,8 8,5
ROIC (%) -21,6 -2,3 8,6
ROIC adj. (%) -21,6 -2,3 8,6
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -22 3 26
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -13,1 0,9 6,7
EBITDA lease adj. -22 3 26
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -13,1 0,9 6,7
EBITA adj. -28 -4 18
EBITA adj. margin (%) -16,5 -1,2 4,6
EBIT adj. -28 -4 18
EBIT adj. margin (%) -16,5 -1,2 4,6
Pretax profit Adj. -27 -5 16
Net profit Adj. -27 -5 14
Net profit to shareholders adj. -27 -5 14
Net adj. margin (%) -16,1 -1,8 3,6
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA -22 3 26
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 -2 -2
Other intangible assets 31 33 36
Paid tax 0 0 -2
Tangible fixed assets 4 6 9
Non-cash items 2 0 0
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Cash flow before change in WC -19 1 22
Total other fixed assets 21 28 36
Change in working capital -24 5 -13
Fixed assets 55 67 81
Operating cash flow -44 6 9
Inventories 111 102 108
Capex tangible fixed assets -2 -2 -3
Receivables 58 71 83
Capex intangible fixed assets -12 -9 -10
Other current assets 11 20 25
Acquisitions and Disposals -7 -7 -8
Cash and liquid assets 52 40 27
Free cash flow -64 -12 -13
Total assets 288 300 324
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 190 184 198
Share issues and buybacks 2 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation N/A N/A N/A
Total equity 190 184 198
Other non-cash items -30 0 0
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 8 8 8
Short-term debt 18 18 18
Accounts payable 39 36 38
Other current liabilities 34 54 62
Total liabilities and equity 288 300 324
Net IB debt -35 -23 -10
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -35 -23 -10
Net IB debt excl. leasing -35 -23 -10
Capital employed 208 202 216
Capital invested 155 162 188
Working capital 108 103 116
Market cap. diluted (m) 229 230 230
Net IB debt adj. -35 -23 -10
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -20 -27 -35
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 195 208 220
Total assets turnover (%) 59,1 102 123,2
Working capital/sales (%) 55,4 35,1 28,5
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -18,3 -12,3 -5
Net debt / market cap (%) -15,1 -9,8 -4,3
Equity ratio (%) 65,8 61,5 61,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -18,3 -12,3 -5
Current ratio 2,57 2,17 2,07
EBITDA/net interest 35,6 1,7 16,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 1,6 -8,4 -0,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 1,6 -8,4 -0,4
Interest coverage 44,9 2,3 11,4
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Diluted shares adj. 7 7 7
EPS -4,05 -0,8 2,09
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -4,05 -0,8 2,09
BVPS 28,89 27,99 30,08
BVPS adj. 24,23 22,92 24,56
Net IB debt/share -5,28 -3,44 -1,5
Share price 34,95 34,95 34,95
Market cap. (m) 229 230 230
P/E (x) -8,6 -43,5 16,7
EV/sales (x) 1,14 0,69 0,57
EV/EBITDA (x) -8,7 76,5 8,6
EV/EBITA (x) -6,9 -56,3 12,4
EV/EBIT (x) -6,9 -56,3 12,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -28 -5,2 -5,6
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -28 -5,2 -5,6
P/BVPS (x) 1,21 1,25 1,16
P/BVPS adj. (x) 1,44 1,52 1,42
P/E adj. (x) -8,6 -43,5 16,7
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -8,7 76,5 8,6
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -6,9 -56,3 12,4
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -6,9 -56,3 12,4
EV/CE (x) 0,9 1 1
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 7,8 3,7 3,5
Capex/depreciation 2,3 1,7 1,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 38,3 39,1 35,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 38,2 26,1 28,6
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 18 18 20
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 8,72 7,61 6,56

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Christian Gulbrandsen 14.0 % 37.3 % 26 Jun 2024
Project Air AB 13.6 % 37.2 % 26 Jun 2024
Nordea Funds 7.9 % 2.8 % 26 Jun 2024
Ålandsbanken Fonder 4.7 % 1.6 % 30 Jun 2024
Avanza Pension 3.3 % 1.2 % 26 Jun 2024
Didner & Gerge Fonder 3.0 % 1.0 % 30 Jun 2024
Fondita Fund Management 2.9 % 1.0 % 26 Jun 2024
Henrik Nilsson 2.8 % 1.0 % 26 Jun 2024
Theodor Jeansson Jr. 2.4 % 0.8 % 26 Jun 2024
Bo Westerberg 2.3 % 0.8 % 26 Jun 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB