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Clavister

Clavister

Clavister develops and sells cybersecurity solutions for physical and virtual environments. Its product portfolio is designed to meet the specific needs of customers in three main categories: public administrations, service providers and defence contractors. Sales are primarily made under the company’s own brand, but also through OEMs, i.e. the software being added to the customers’ own brands. Clavister has a long list of clients including Nokia, IWG, Telco Systems and BAE Systems.

Clavister has signed partnerships with major international service providers such as Nokia, Tata Communications and Telco Systems, as well as Europe’s largest defense OEM, BAE Systems. Clavister’s ambition is to scale with these partners as they roll out new networking systems and products. For instance, Nokia sells Clavister’s 5G security solution under its own brand, NetGuard. Through its partners, Clavister currently licenses its software to ~5% of all mobile operators. With 5G adoption still in the low-single digit percentage range, there are significant opportunities for Clavister’s 5G business, as its revenue will scale with traffic volumes.

Clavister is dependent on the trust of its customers. If the company’s technology does not keep up with current attack methods or meet its customers’ expectations, it could lose significant parts of its business. Clavister competes with large multinational corporations, which entails an inherent risk that customers may chose a more well-known vendor over Clavister.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 129 146 180
Sales growth (%) 0,5 12,9 23
EBITDA -21 0 29
EBITDA margin (%) -16,1 0,1 16
EBIT adj -57 -34 -6
EBIT adj margin (%) -44,3 -23,5 -3,2
Pretax profit -92 -58 -28
EPS rep -1,64 -1,03 -0,49
EPS growth (%) 21,2 37 52,5
EPS adj -1,64 -1,03 -0,49
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -24,8 2293,1 17,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) -9 -13,6 -85,8
P/E (x) -3,6 -3,7 -7,7
P/E adj (x) -3,6 -3,7 -7,7
EV/sales (x) 4 3,2 2,8
FCF yield (%) -30,4 -23,5 -6,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -9,2 1241,9 9,7
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -33 -26,3 -10,4
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -6,7 -41,4 12,8
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 129 146 180
COGS -19 -22 -21
Gross profit 110 124 159
Other operating items -131 -124 -130
EBITDA -21 0 29
Depreciation and amortisation -7 -6 -10
Of which leasing depreciation -7 -6 -8
EBITA -31 -8 19
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -26 -27 -25
EBIT -57 -34 -6
Net financial items -34 -24 -22
Pretax profit -92 -58 -28
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -91 -58 -28
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -91 -58 -28
EPS -1,64 -1,03 -0,49
EPS Adj -1,64 -1,03 -0,49
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -7 -6 -8
Tax rate (%) -0,4 0 0
Gross margin (%) 85,2 85,1 88,5
EBITDA margin (%) -16,1 0,1 16
EBITA margin (%) -24,1 -5,2 10,7
EBIT margin (%) -44,3 -23,5 -3,2
Pretax margin (%) -70,8 -40 -15,5
Net margin (%) -70,5 -40 -15,5
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 0,5 12,9 23
EBITDA growth (%) -7,2 101 14020,1
EBIT growth (%) -1,5 40 83,2
Net profit growth (%) -12,2 35,9 52,5
EPS growth (%) 21,2 37 52,5
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 436,5 70,4 22
ROE Adj (%) 311,5 38,1 2,2
ROCE (%) -26,6 -19,8 -3,7
ROCE Adj(%) -14,5 -4,4 12,4
ROIC (%) -47,8 -24,7 -4,1
ROIC Adj (%) -47,8 -24,7 -4,1
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj -21 0 29
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -16,1 0,1 16
EBITDA lease Adj -27 -6 21
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) -21,1 -4 11,8
EBITA Adj -31 -8 19
EBITA Adj margin (%) -24,1 -5,2 10,7
EBIT Adj -57 -34 -6
EBIT Adj margin (%) -44,3 -23,5 -3,2
Pretax profit Adj -65 -32 -3
Net profit Adj -65 -32 -3
Net profit to shareholders Adj -65 -32 -3
Net Adj margin (%) -50,3 -21,7 -1,5
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA -21 0 29
Net financial items -34 -24 -22
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 21 5 5
Cash flow before change in WC -34 -19 12
Change in WC -22 7 9
Operating cash flow -56 -12 21
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -39 -38 -36
Acquisitions and disposals -3 0 0
Free cash flow -99 -50 -15
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 18 0 0
Lease liability amortisation -9 -6 -8
Other non cash items 2 -5 -5
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 67 67 67
Other intangible assets 112 121 130
Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 8 8 8
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 186 196 205
Inventories 6 7 9
Receivables 51 47 56
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 50 19 11
Total assets 293 268 281
Shareholders equity -54 -112 -140
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity -54 -112 -140
Long-term debt 223 253 273
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 9 9 9
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 10 10 10
Accounts payable 10 10 13
Other current liabilities 95 99 117
Total liabilities and equity 293 268 281
Net IB debt 191 253 280
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 191 253 280
Net IB debt excl. leasing 183 244 271
Capital invested 138 141 140
Working capital -48 -55 -64
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 324 214 214
Net IB debt Adj 191 253 280
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 516 467 494
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 38,3 52 65,5
Working capital / sales (%) -52,1 -35,3 -33,3
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -355,6 -225,1 -200
Net debt / market cap (%) 44,2 118,1 130,9
Equity ratio (%) -18,4 -41,9 -49,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -355,6 -225,1 -200
Current ratio (%) 88,8 58,4 52,5
EBITDA / net interest (%) -60,7 0,8 130,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -919,3 124192,2 974,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -668,3 -4137,3 1277,3
Interest cover (%) -90,8 -31,3 87,5
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 56 57 57
Fully diluted shares Adj 56 57 57
EPS -1,64 -1,03 -0,49
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -1,64 -1,03 -0,49
BVPS -0,97 -1,99 -2,48
BVPS Adj -4,18 -5,31 -5,96
Net IB debt / share 3,4 4,5 5
Share price 7,79 3,79 3,79
Market cap. (m) 433 214 214
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -3,6 -3,7 -7,7
EV/sales 3,99 3,2 2,75
EV/EBITDA -24,8 2293,1 17,2
EV/EBITA -16,6 -61,9 25,7
EV/EBIT -9 -13,6 -85,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -30,4 -23,5 -6,9
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -33 -26,3 -10,4
P/BVPS -6,02 -1,91 -1,53
P/BVPS Adj -1,4 -0,71 -0,63
P/E Adj -3,6 -3,7 -7,7
EV/EBITDA Adj -24,8 2293,1 17,2
EV/EBITA Adj -16,6 -61,9 25,7
EV/EBIT Adj -9 -13,6 -85,8
EV/cap. employed 2,8 2,9 3,3
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 30,5 26,2 20
Capex / depreciation 0 0 1800
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 35,3 31,5 27,6
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 1,5
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

Equity research

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Media

Clavister - Company presentation with President & CEO John Vestberg

Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Lloyd Fonds AG 9.5 % 9.5 % 31 May 2022
Avanza Pension 7.4 % 7.4 % 28 Jun 2022
ÖstVäst Capital Management 6.0 % 6.0 % 30 Jun 2022
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 5.2 % 5.2 % 28 Jun 2022
Per Anders Bendt 5.2 % 5.2 % 28 Jun 2022
Staffan Dahlström 4.5 % 4.5 % 28 Jun 2022
Swedbank Försäkring 3.5 % 3.5 % 28 Jun 2022
Stena 3.1 % 3.1 % 28 Jun 2022
Futur Pension 2.7 % 2.7 % 28 Jun 2022
Lupus alpha 2.6 % 2.6 % 31 Dec 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list -

Name Quantity Code Date
John Vestberg + 6 250 BUY 30 Jun 2022
David Nordström + 10 000 BUY 29 Jun 2022
Staffan Dahlström +1 342 646 BUY 23 Jun 2022
John Vestberg + 1 575 BUY 19 May 2022
John Vestberg + 8 204 BUY 18 May 2022
John Vestberg - 9 681 SELL 16 May 2022
Martin Roos - 20 000 SELL 4 Mar 2022
Martin Roos - 195 000 SELL 24 Feb 2022
David Nordström + 8 167 BUY 12 Nov 2021
Staffan Dahlström + 119 762 BUY 11 Nov 2021

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