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Energy Save

Energy Save

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Energy Save is a Swedish heat pump manufacturer (~80% residential, ~20% commercial) that uses in-house R&D and outsourced production to deliver growth above the market (>20%) and a 15% EBIT margin in the longer-term. The company has grown sales by ~30% p.a. historically, and sells its products through distributors under its own brand, and to OEMs through a private label approach

Slow uptick in heat pump demand and lack of transition from fossil-fuelled heating, lower-than-expected margin support from higher volumes, Aira partnership not being extended, continued negative cash flow generation unless volumes improve

Financials

SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 185,98 215,49 274,37
Sales growth (%) -24,4 15,9 27,3
EBITDA -14 0 20
EBITDA margin (%) -7,7 0,2 7,2
EBIT adj. -22 -10 9
EBIT adj. margin (%) -11,9 -4,8 3,2
Pretax profit -23 -11 8
EPS -3,47 -1,71 0,96
EPS growth (%) 60,7 -50,6 N/A
EPS adj. -3,47 -1,71 0,96
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -7,5 240,7 5,6
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -4,8 -10,8 12,5
P/E (x) N/A N/A 17,07
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 17,1
EV/sales (x) 0,58 0,52 0,4
FCF yield (%) -30,3 -4,6 1,9
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -30,3 -4,6 1,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0 9,9 0,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0 9,9 0,1
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 185,98 215,49 274,37
COGS -123 -137 -176
Gross profit 63 79 99
Other operating items -77 -78 -79
EBITDA -14 0 20
Depreciation and amortisation -8 -11 -11
Depreciation on leased assets 0 0 0
EBITA -22,18 -10,41 8,77
Operating EO items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0
EBIT -22,18 -10,41 8,77
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Pretax profit -23 -11 8
Tax 0 0 -2
Net profit -23 -11 6
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -23 -11 6
EPS -3,47 -1,71 0,96
EPS adj. -3,47 -1,71 0,96
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 21
Gross margin (%) 33,7 36,5 36
EBITDA margin (%) -7,7 0,2 7,2
EBITA margin (%) -11,9 -4,8 3,2
EBIT margin (%) -11,9 -4,8 3,2
Pre-tax margin (%) -12,3 -5,2 2,9
Net margin (%) -12,3 -5,2 2,3
Sales growth (%) -24,4 15,9 27,3
EBITDA growth (%) 48,2 -103,3 4149,8
EBITA growth (%) 39,4 -53 -184,3
EBIT growth (%) 39,4 -53 -184,3
Net profit growth (%) 60,7 -50,6 -155,8
EPS growth (%) 60,7 -50,6 N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -13,5 -7,4 4,2
ROE adj. (%) -13,5 -7,4 4,2
ROCE (%) -11,6 -6 5,1
ROCE adj. (%) -11,6 -6 5,1
ROIC (%) -14,6 -6,8 4,5
ROIC adj. (%) -14,6 -6,8 4,5
Year N/A N/A N/A
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -14 0 20
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -7,7 0,2 7,2
EBITDA lease adj. -14 0 20
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -7,7 0,2 7,2
EBITA adj. -22 -10 9
EBITA adj. margin (%) -11,9 -4,8 3,2
EBIT adj. -22 -10 9
EBIT adj. margin (%) -11,9 -4,8 3,2
Pretax profit Adj. -23 -11 8
Net profit Adj. -23 -11 6
Net profit to shareholders adj. -23 -11 6
Net adj. margin (%) -12,3 -5,2 2,3
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Goodwill 0 0 0
EBITDA -14 0 20
Other intangible assets 46 45 45
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Tangible fixed assets 4 5 8
Paid tax 0 0 -2
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Non-cash items 30 0 0
Other Fixed Assets All 24 24 24
Cash flow before change in WC 15 0 17
Fixed assets 74 75 77
Change in working capital -30 7 -2
Inventories 84 75 82
Operating cash flow -15 6 15
Receivables 36 33 42
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 -2 -2
Other current assets 6 6 8
Capex intangible fixed assets -14 -10 -11
Cash and liquid assets 23 18 20
Acquisitions and Disposals -4 0 0
Total assets 224 208 229
Free cash flow -33 -5 2
Shareholders equity 157 146 152
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Total equity 157 146 152
Leasing liability amortisation N/A N/A N/A
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Other changes in net debt 12 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 2 2 2
Short-term debt 21 21 21
Accounts payable 19 17 27
Other current liabilities 23 19 25
Total liabilities and equity 224 208 229
Net IB debt 0 5 3
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 0 5 3
Net IB debt excl. leasing 0 5 3
Capital employed 180 169 175
Capital invested 157 151 155
Working capital 85 78 80
Market cap. diluted (m) 107 107 107
Net IB debt adj. 0 5 3
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -24 -24 -24
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 107 112 110
Total assets turnover (%) 79,4 99,9 125,6
Working capital/sales (%) 48,9 37,8 28,8
Year N/A N/A N/A
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -0,2 3,2 1,7
Net debt / market cap (%) -0,3 4,3 2,4
Equity ratio (%) 70,3 70,3 66,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -0,2 3,2 1,7
Current ratio 2,4 2,31 2,09
EBITDA/net interest 21,5 0,5 24,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0 9,9 0,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 0 9,9 0,1
Interest coverage 33,4 12,1 10,8
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Diluted shares adj. 7 7 7
EPS -3,47 -1,71 0,96
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -3,47 -1,71 0,96
BVPS 23,87 22,16 23,12
BVPS adj. 16,82 15,29 16,23
Net IB debt/share -0,04 0,7 0,39
Share price 16,3 16,3 16,3
Market cap. (m) 107 107 107
P/E (x) N/A N/A 17,07
EV/sales (x) 0,58 0,52 0,4
EV/EBITDA (x) -7,5 240,7 5,6
EV/EBITA (x) -4,8 -10,8 12,5
EV/EBIT (x) -4,8 -10,8 12,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -30,3 -4,6 1,9
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -30,3 -4,6 1,9
P/BVPS (x) 0,68 0,74 0,71
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,97 1,07 1
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 17,1
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -7,5 240,7 5,6
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -4,8 -10,8 12,5
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -4,8 -10,8 12,5
EV/CE (x) 0,6 0,7 0,6
Year N/A N/A N/A
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) -7,4 -5,3 -4,8
Capex/depreciation 1,8 1 1,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 7,1 31,6 29,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 29,2 21,4 24,2
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 17 24 24
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 1,32

Equity research

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Media

Energy Save - Company presentation with CEO Fredrik Sävenstrand & CFO Helena Wachtmeister

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Main shareholders - Energy Save

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Christian Gulbrandsen 14.1 % 37.4 % 28 Apr 2026
Project Air AB 13.6 % 37.2 % 28 Apr 2026
Theodor Jeansson Jr. 9.3 % 3.3 % 28 Apr 2026
Nordea Funds 7.9 % 2.8 % 28 Apr 2026
Avanza Pension 3.5 % 1.2 % 28 Apr 2026
Henrik Nilsson 3.0 % 1.0 % 28 Apr 2026
Bo Westerberg 2.3 % 0.8 % 28 Apr 2026
Nordea Liv & Pension 2.1 % 0.8 % 28 Apr 2026
Linus Åke Fredrik Lindström 2.1 % 0.7 % 28 Apr 2026
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 1.9 % 0.7 % 28 Apr 2026
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB