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Ascelia Pharma

Ascelia Pharma

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Ascelia Pharma is a Swedish biopharma company listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm main market since March 2019. The company is focused on the development of a novel non-gadolinium based MRI contrast agent for the detection of liver metastases in cancer patients with impaired kidney function. The product Orviglance has successfully completed clinical Ph 3 (SPARKLE) in 2024 and is now in final preparations towards submission of a NDA to the US FDA in early September. The second pipeline candidate Oncoral (novel chemotherapy formulation for gastric cancer) successfully completed Ph 1 and is Ph 2 ready.

Ascelia's lead drug candidate Orviglance has passed clinical development. Remaining risks remain FDA approval (small risk) and failure of meeting commercial targets (greater risk). Ascelia will also need to find a licensing partner to successfully launch the product and prolong the company's financial runway until sufficient revenue is generated from partner milestones and royalties to reach profitability.

Financials

SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 0 150 75
Sales growth (%) N/A N/A -50
EBITDA -75 79 8
EBITDA margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
EBIT adj. -75 79 8
EBIT adj. margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
Pretax profit -76 79 8
EPS -0,59 0,62 0,06
EPS growth (%) -28,7 N/A -89,5
EPS adj. -0,59 0,62 0,06
DPS 0 0 N/A
EV/EBITDA (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
P/E (x) N/A 5 47,3
P/E adj. (x) N/A 5 47,3
EV/sales (x) N/A 1,72 3,32
FCF yield (%) -16,9 20,2 2,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -17,1 20,2 2,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0,7 -1,7 -17,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0,7 -1,7 -17,3
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 0 150 75
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 0 150 75
Other operating items -75 -71 -67
EBITDA -75 79 8
Depreciation and amortisation 0 0 0
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -75 79 8
EO Items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -75 79 8
Net financial items -2 0 0
Pretax profit -76 79 8
Tax 1 0 0
Net profit -76 79 8
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -76 79 8
EPS -0,59 0,62 0,06
EPS adj. -0,59 0,62 0,06
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,7 0 0
Gross margin (%) N/A 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
EBITA margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
EBIT margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
Pre-tax margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
Net margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
Sales growth (%) N/A N/A -50
EBITDA growth (%) 10,2 -205,7 -89,5
EBITA growth (%) 10,2 -205,7 -89,5
EBIT growth (%) 10,2 -205,7 -89,5
Net profit growth (%) -5,1 -203,9 -89,5
EPS growth (%) -28,7 N/A -89,5
Year N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -85,4 57,1 4,5
ROE adj. (%) -85,4 57,1 4,5
ROCE (%) -69,8 56,7 4,5
ROCE adj. (%) -69,8 56,7 4,5
ROIC (%) -202,2 178,2 18,7
ROIC adj. (%) -202,2 178,2 18,7
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -75 79 8
EBITDA adj. margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
EBITDA lease adj. -75 79 8
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
EBITA adj. -75 79 8
EBITA adj. margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
EBIT adj. -75 79 8
EBIT adj. margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
Pretax profit Adj. -76 79 8
Net profit Adj. -76 79 8
Net profit to shareholders adj. -76 79 8
Net adj. margin (%) N/A 52,6 11
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
EBITDA -75 79 8
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items -2 0 0
Other intangible assets 57 57 57
Paid tax 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Non-cash items 25 0 0
Right-of-use asset 1 1 1
Cash flow before change in WC -52 79 8
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Change in working capital -14 0 0
Fixed assets 58 58 58
Operating cash flow -66 79 8
Inventories 0 0 0
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Receivables 3 3 3
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 3 3 3
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 56 134 143
Free cash flow -66 79 8
Total assets 120 199 207
Shareholders equity 99 178 186
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 69 0 0
Total equity 99 178 186
Leasing liability amortisation -1 0 0
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Other non-cash items 2 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 1 1 1
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 7 7 7
Other current liabilities 13 13 13
Total liabilities and equity 120 199 207
Net IB debt -55 -133 -142
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -55 -133 -142
Net IB debt excl. leasing -56 -134 -143
Capital employed 100 179 187
Capital invested 44 44 44
Working capital -14 -14 -14
Market cap. diluted (m) 391 391 391
Net IB debt adj. -55 -133 -142
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 337 258 249
Total assets turnover (%) 0 94,3 37
Working capital/sales (%) N/A -9,3 -18,6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Year N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -55,2 -75,1 -76,2
Net debt / market cap (%) -13,9 -34,1 -36,2
Equity ratio (%) 82,6 89,5 89,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -55,2 -75,1 -76,2
Current ratio 3,09 7,06 7,48
EBITDA/net interest 42,3 N/A N/A
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0,7 -1,7 -17,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 0,7 -1,7 -17,3
Interest coverage 13,8 N/A N/A
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Shares outstanding adj. 128 128 128
Diluted shares adj. 128 128 128
EPS -0,59 0,62 0,06
Dividend per share 0 0 N/A
EPS adj. -0,59 0,62 0,06
BVPS 0,77 1,39 1,45
BVPS adj. 0,33 0,94 1,01
Net IB debt/share -0,43 -1,04 -1,11
Share price 3,06 3,06 3,06
Market cap. (m) 391 391 391
P/E (x) N/A 5 47,3
EV/sales (x) N/A 1,7 3,3
EV/EBITDA (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
EV/EBITA (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
EV/EBIT (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -16,9 20,2 2,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -17,1 20,2 2,1
P/BVPS (x) 3,96 2,2 2,1
P/BVPS adj. (x) 9,36 3,24 3,03
P/E adj. (x) N/A 5 47,3
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -4,5 3,3 30,2
EV/CE (x) 3,4 1,4 1,3
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) N/A 0 0
Capex/depreciation N/A N/A N/A
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

Equity research

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Media

Ascelia Pharma - Company presentation with CEO Magnus Corfitzen
Ascelia Pharma - Company presentation with CEO Magnus Corfitzen

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 11.2 % 11.3 % 26 Nov 2025
Avanza Pension 6.3 % 6.3 % 26 Nov 2025
ÖstVäst Capital Management 3.2 % 3.3 % 9 Oct 2025
Mats Thorén 2.5 % 2.5 % 26 Nov 2025
Handelsbanken Fonder 2.2 % 2.2 % 30 Nov 2025
Connys Alltransporter AB 1.1 % 1.1 % 26 Nov 2025
Fjärde AP-fonden 1.0 % 1.0 % 26 Nov 2025
Swedbank Försäkring 1.0 % 1.0 % 26 Nov 2025
Philip Bacchus 0.9 % 0.9 % 26 Nov 2025
Molcap Invest AB 0.9 % 0.9 % 30 Sep 2025
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB