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Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper

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Arctic Paper is a paper production company focusing on high quality coated and uncoated paper products. The company currently consist of three paper mills and five brands: Amber, Arctic, Arctic Volume, Munken and G. With a majority ownership of the Rottneros AB Group, the company complements their product portfolio with pulp production. Arctic Paper's main clients are printing houses, publishers and wholesalers, serving industries such as advertising and design indirectly.

Sustainability Information

Key risks include: (i) cyclicality of both pulp and paper demand, (ii) Arctic Paper's net short position on pulp, pulpwood, energy and chemicals prices, (iii) a structural decline in paper demand, (iv) potential losses stemming from hedging against electricity and pulp prices and (v) production facility-related issues such as risk of injuries, machinery breakdown, fires and other accidents that can adversely impact the company's production capabilities.

Financials

PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 3166 3229 3448
Sales growth (%) -7,8 2 6,8
EBITDA 35 164 247
EBITDA margin (%) 1,1 5,1 7,2
EBIT adj. -140 20 109
EBIT adj. margin (%) -4,4 0,6 3,2
Pretax profit -192 -14 76
EPS -1,17 0,1 0,81
EPS growth (%) N/A N/A N/A
EPS adj. -1,17 0,1 0,81
DPS 0 0,03 0,24
EV/EBITDA (x) 33,3 7,8 5,2
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -8,4 62,3 11,7
P/E (x) N/A 85 10
P/E adj. (x) N/A 85 10
EV/sales (x) 0,37 0,39 0,37
FCF yield (%) -55,1 -18 -5,3
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -56,1 -18,8 -6,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0,4 3
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 6,6 1,9 1,2
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 5,8 2 1,3
PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 3166 3229 3448
COGS -2795 -2654 -2761
Gross profit 371 576 687
Other operating items -336 -412 -440
EBITDA 35 164 247
Depreciation and amortisation -190 -143 -138
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -154 20 109
EO Items -14 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -154 20 109
Net financial items -38 -34 -33
Pretax profit -192 -14 76
Tax 38 4 -15
Net profit -154 -10 61
Minority interest -73 -18 -5
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -227 -28 56
EPS -1,17 0,1 0,81
EPS adj. -1,17 0,1 0,81
Total extraordinary items after tax -14 0 0
Leasing payments -6 -4 -4
Tax rate (%) 19,9 25,8 19,8
Gross margin (%) 11,7 17,8 19,9
EBITDA margin (%) 1,1 5,1 7,2
EBITA margin (%) -4,9 0,6 3,2
EBIT margin (%) -4,9 0,6 3,2
Pre-tax margin (%) -6,1 -0,4 2,2
Net margin (%) -4,9 -0,3 1,8
Sales growth (%) -7,8 2 6,8
EBITDA growth (%) -88,1 361 51,1
EBITA growth (%) -183,4 -113,2 434,4
EBIT growth (%) -183,4 -113,2 N/A
Net profit growth (%) -195 -93,2 -685
EPS growth (%) N/A N/A N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -15,8 -2 3,9
ROE adj. (%) -14,9 -2 3,9
ROCE (%) -7,3 1,1 5,3
ROCE adj. (%) -6,6 1,1 5,3
ROIC (%) -6,6 0,7 4,1
ROIC adj. (%) -6 0,7 4,1
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 49 164 247
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 1,6 5,1 7,2
EBITDA lease adj. 44 159 243
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 1,4 4,9 7
EBITA adj. -140 20 109
EBITA adj. margin (%) -4,4 0,6 3,2
EBIT adj. -140 20 109
EBIT adj. margin (%) -4,4 0,6 3,2
Pretax profit Adj. -178 -14 76
Net profit Adj. -140 -10 61
Net profit to shareholders adj. -213 -28 56
Net adj. margin (%) -4,4 -0,3 1,8
PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
EBITDA 35 164 247
Goodwill 8 8 8
Net financial items -38 -34 -33
Other intangible assets 96 96 96
Paid tax -39 4 -15
Tangible fixed assets 1523 1544 1571
Non-cash items -12 -34 -33
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -53 98 167
Total other fixed assets 21 21 21
Change in working capital 46 -35 -32
Fixed assets 1648 1670 1697
Operating cash flow -7 64 135
Inventories 500 541 561
Capex tangible fixed assets -303 -165 -165
Receivables 427 440 488
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 88 93 98
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 43 -28 -23
Free cash flow -310 -101 -30
Total assets 2707 2716 2821
Dividend paid 0 0 -2
Shareholders equity 1409 1411 1461
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 365 383 396
Leasing liability amortisation -6 -4 -4
Total equity 1774 1794 1857
Other non-cash items 66 34 41
Long-term debt 204 204 204
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 145 145 145
Short-term debt 93 93 93
Accounts payable 359 342 372
Other current liabilities 132 138 150
Total liabilities and equity 2707 2716 2821
Net IB debt 233 304 299
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 233 304 299
Net IB debt excl. leasing 233 304 299
Capital employed 2070 2091 2154
Capital invested 2007 2098 2156
Working capital 525 594 626
Market cap. diluted (m) 563 563 563
Net IB debt adj. 254 325 320
Market value of minority 365 383 396
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 1181 1270 1279
Total assets turnover (%) 115,9 119,1 124,5
Working capital/sales (%) 15 17,3 17,7
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) 13,1 17 16,1
Net debt / market cap (%) 41,4 54,1 53,2
Equity ratio (%) 65,5 66,1 65,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 14,3 18,1 17,2
Current ratio 1,81 1,83 1,83
EBITDA/net interest 0,9 4,7 7,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 6,6 1,9 1,2
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 5,8 2 1,3
Interest coverage 3,6 0,6 3,2
PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
Shares outstanding adj. 69 69 69
Diluted shares adj. 69 69 69
EPS -1,17 0,1 0,81
Dividend per share 0 0,03 0,24
EPS adj. -1,17 0,1 0,81
BVPS 20,33 20,37 21,08
BVPS adj. 18,83 18,86 19,58
Net IB debt/share 3,66 4,69 4,62
Share price 20,45 20,45 20,45
Market cap. (m) 563 563 563
P/E (x) N/A 85 10
EV/sales (x) 0,4 0,4 0,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 33,3 7,8 5,2
EV/EBITA (x) -7,6 62,3 11,7
EV/EBIT (x) -7,6 62,3 11,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0,4 3
FCF yield (%) -55,1 -18 -5,3
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -56,1 -18,8 -6,1
P/BVPS (x) 0,4 0,4 0,39
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,4 0,4 0,39
P/E adj. (x) N/A 85 10
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 23,9 7,8 5,2
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -8,4 62,3 11,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -8,4 62,3 11,7
EV/CE (x) 0,6 0,6 0,6
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 9,6 5,1 4,8
Capex/depreciation 1,6 1,2 1,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 19,9 10,7 10,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 12,5 9,3 8,8

Equity research

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Media

Arctic Paper - Company presentation with CFO Katarzyna Wojtkowiak
Arctic Paper - Fireside chat with President & CEO Michal Jarczyński

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Main shareholders - Arctic Paper

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Thomas Onstad 68.1 % 68.1 % 31 Dec 2023
Norges Bank Investment Management 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2025
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.3 % 0.3 % 30 Jan 2026
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.2 % 0.2 % 31 Jan 2026
SEB Funds 0.2 % 0.2 % 31 Jan 2026
Storebrand Asset Management 0.1 % 0.1 % 31 Jan 2026
Per Lundeen 0.1 % 0.1 % 31 Dec 2023
New York City Employee Retirement System Group (NYCERS) 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Jun 2024
Kärnavfallsfonden 0.0 % 0.0 % 31 Dec 2024
Skandia Fonder 0.0 % 0.0 % 31 Jan 2026
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB