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Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper is a paper production company focusing on high quality coated and uncoated paper products. The company currently consist of three paper mills and five brands: Amber, Arctic, Arctic Volume, Munken and G. With a majority ownership of the Rottneros AB Group, the company complements their product portfolio with pulp production. Arctic Paper's main clients are printing houses, publishers and wholesalers, serving industries such as advertising and design indirectly.

Sustainability Information

Key risks include: (i) cyclicality of both pulp and paper demand, (ii) Arctic Paper's net short position on pulp, pulpwood, energy and chemicals prices, (iii) a structural decline in paper demand, (iv) potential losses stemming from hedging against electricity and pulp prices and (v) production facility-related issues such as risk of injuries, machinery breakdown, fires and other accidents that can adversely impact the company's production capabilities.

PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 3373 3135 3454
Sales growth (%) -5 -7 10,2
EBITDA 291 4 189
EBITDA margin (%) 8,6 0,1 5,5
EBIT adj. 142 -237 52
EBIT adj. margin (%) 4,2 -7,6 1,5
Pretax profit 157 -213 33
EPS 1,77 -1,69 0,27
EPS growth (%) -50,5 N/A N/A
EPS adj. 1,77 -1,69 0,27
DPS 0,53 0 0,08
EV/EBITDA (x) 3,2 324,9 6,8
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 6,5 -5,5 24,8
P/E (x) 6 N/A 39,3
P/E adj. (x) 6 N/A 39,3
EV/sales (x) 0,27 0,41 0,37
FCF yield (%) -14,4 -36,6 -2,9
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -15,6 -37,6 -3,8
Dividend yield (%) 5 0 0,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,6 59,8 1,3
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -0,5 -4,6 1,5
PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 3373 3135 3454
COGS -2743 -2779 -2846
Gross profit 630 356 608
Other operating items -339 -352 -419
EBITDA 291 4 189
Depreciation and amortisation -119 -188 -137
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 172 -184 52
EO Items 30 53 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 172 -184 52
Net financial items -15 -29 -19
Pretax profit 157 -213 33
Tax -25 37 -6
Net profit 132 -176 26
Minority interest -10 -58 8
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 122 -234 34
EPS 1,77 -1,69 0,27
EPS adj. 1,77 -1,69 0,27
Total extraordinary items after tax 30 53 0
Leasing payments -9 -7 -7
Tax rate (%) 15,8 17,4 19,5
Gross margin (%) 18,7 11,3 17,6
EBITDA margin (%) 8,6 0,1 5,5
EBITA margin (%) 5,1 -5,9 1,5
EBIT margin (%) 5,1 -5,9 1,5
Pre-tax margin (%) 4,6 -6,8 0,9
Net margin (%) 3,9 -5,6 0,8
Sales growth (%) -5 -7 10,2
EBITDA growth (%) -38,8 -98,6 4649,8
EBITA growth (%) -51,9 -206,9 -128,4
EBIT growth (%) -51,9 -206,9 -128,4
Net profit growth (%) -51,5 -233 -115
EPS growth (%) -50,5 N/A N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 8,5 -16,7 2,5
ROE adj. (%) 6,4 -20,5 2,5
ROCE (%) 8,9 -8,8 2,8
ROCE adj. (%) 7,3 -11,5 2,8
ROIC (%) 9,6 -8,7 2,2
ROIC adj. (%) 7,9 -11,2 2,2
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 261 -49 189
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 7,7 -1,6 5,5
EBITDA lease adj. 252 -57 182
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 7,5 -1,8 5,3
EBITA adj. 142 -237 52
EBITA adj. margin (%) 4,2 -7,6 1,5
EBIT adj. 142 -237 52
EBIT adj. margin (%) 4,2 -7,6 1,5
Pretax profit Adj. 127 -266 33
Net profit Adj. 102 -229 26
Net profit to shareholders adj. 92 -287 34
Net adj. margin (%) 3 -7,3 0,8
PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
EBITDA 291 4 189
Goodwill 8 8 8
Net financial items -15 -29 -19
Other intangible assets 47 79 79
Paid tax -46 -23 -6
Tangible fixed assets 1322 1497 1525
Non-cash items 34 -24 -19
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 264 -72 144
Total other fixed assets 29 20 20
Change in working capital -77 100 0
Fixed assets 1405 1605 1633
Operating cash flow 187 28 144
Inventories 514 509 545
Capex tangible fixed assets -293 -298 -165
Receivables 451 407 458
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 51 64 70
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 364 130 121
Free cash flow -106 -270 -21
Total assets 2786 2714 2827
Dividend paid -69 0 0
Shareholders equity 1443 1355 1366
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 327 298 290
Leasing liability amortisation -9 -7 -7
Total equity 1769 1653 1657
Other non-cash items -18 -130 19
Long-term debt 124 201 201
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 142 145 145
Short-term debt 103 187 187
Accounts payable 529 422 518
Other current liabilities 118 107 119
Total liabilities and equity 2786 2714 2827
Net IB debt -165 238 247
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -165 238 247
Net IB debt excl. leasing -165 238 247
Capital employed 1996 2040 2044
Capital invested 1604 1891 1904
Working capital 369 451 436
Market cap. diluted (m) 737 737 737
Net IB debt adj. -137 258 267
Market value of minority 327 298 290
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 927 1293 1294
Total assets turnover (%) 122,5 114 124,7
Working capital/sales (%) 10,5 13,1 12,8
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -9,3 14,4 14,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -22,4 32,3 33,5
Equity ratio (%) 63,5 60,9 58,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -7,7 15,6 16,1
Current ratio 1,84 1,55 1,45
EBITDA/net interest 19,5 0,1 9,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,6 59,8 1,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -0,5 -4,6 1,5
Interest coverage 9,7 5,1 2,3
PLNm 2024 2025e 2026e
Shares outstanding adj. 69 69 69
Diluted shares adj. 69 69 69
EPS 1,77 -1,69 0,27
Dividend per share 0,53 0 0,08
EPS adj. 1,77 -1,69 0,27
BVPS 20,82 19,55 19,72
BVPS adj. 20,03 18,29 18,45
Net IB debt/share -1,98 3,72 3,85
Share price 27,9 27,9 27,9
Market cap. (m) 737 737 737
P/E (x) 6 N/A 39,3
EV/sales (x) 0,3 0,4 0,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 3,2 324,9 6,8
EV/EBITA (x) 5,4 -7 24,8
EV/EBIT (x) 5,4 -7 24,8
Dividend yield (%) 5 0 0,8
FCF yield (%) -14,4 -36,6 -2,9
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -15,6 -37,6 -3,8
P/BVPS (x) 0,51 0,54 0,54
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,51 0,55 0,54
P/E adj. (x) 6 N/A 39,3
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 3,6 -26,2 6,8
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 6,5 -5,5 24,8
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 6,5 -5,5 24,8
EV/CE (x) 0,5 0,6 0,6
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 8,7 9,5 4,8
Capex/depreciation 2,5 1,6 1,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 22,2 19,9 10,8
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 9 12,5 9

Equity research

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Media

Arctic Paper - Company presentation with CFO Katarzyna Wojtkowiak
Arctic Paper - Fireside chat with President & CEO Michal Jarczyński

Main shareholders - Arctic Paper

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Thomas Onstad 68.1 % 68.1 % 31 Dec 2023
Norges Bank Investment Management 1.9 % 1.9 % 31 Dec 2024
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.4 % 0.4 % 31 Jul 2025
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.2 % 0.2 % 31 Jul 2025
SEB Funds 0.2 % 0.2 % 31 Jul 2025
New York City Employee Retirement System Group (NYCERS) 0.1 % 0.1 % 30 Jun 2024
Per Lundeen 0.1 % 0.1 % 31 Dec 2023
Kärnavfallsfonden 0.0 % 0.0 % 31 Dec 2024
Skandia Fonder 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Jun 2025
Acadian Asset Management 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Jun 2025
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB