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Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper

Arctic Paper is a paper production company focusing on high quality coated and uncoated paper products. The company currently consist of three paper mills and five brands: Amber, Arctic, Arctic Volume, Munken and G. With a majority ownership of the Rottneros AB Group, the company complements their product portfolio with pulp production. Arctic Paper's main clients are printing houses, publishers and wholesalers, serving industries such as advertising and design indirectly.

Sustainability Information

Key risks include: (i) cyclicality of both pulp and paper demand, (ii) Arctic Paper's net short position on pulp, pulpwood, energy and chemicals prices, (iii) a structural decline in paper demand, (iv) potential losses stemming from hedging against electricity and pulp prices and (v) production facility-related issues such as risk of injuries, machinery breakdown, fires and other accidents that can adversely impact the company's production capabilities.

PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 3196,92 3137,6 3350,47
Sales growth (%) -6,9 -1,9 6,8
EBITDA 28 147 228
EBITDA margin (%) 0,9 4,7 6,8
EBIT adj. -152 -3 84
EBIT adj. margin (%) -4,8 -0,1 2,5
Pretax profit -204 -24 51
EPS -1,44 -0,06 0,54
EPS growth (%) N/A -95,9 N/A
EPS adj. -1,44 -0,06 0,54
Dividend per share 0 0 0,16
EV/EBITDA (x) 29,8 6,7 4,4
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -5,5 -382,6 11,9
P/E (x) N/A N/A 11,04
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 11
EV/sales (x) 0,26 0,31 0,3
FCF yield (%) -44,5 -34,8 -10,5
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -45,9 -35,8 -11,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 2,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 4,1 1,6 1,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 4 1,8 1,2
PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 3196,92 3137,6 3350,47
COGS -2966 -2641 -2931
Gross profit 231 497 420
Other operating items -202 -349 -192
EBITDA 28 147 228
Depreciation and amortisation -190 -150 -144
Depreciation on leased assets 0 0 0
EBITA -166,01 -2,56 83,76
Operating EO items -14 0 0
Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0
EBIT -166,01 -2,56 83,76
Net financial items -38 -22 -32
Pretax profit -204 -24 51
Tax 40 2 -10
Net profit -163 -22 41
Minority interest -75 -18 4
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -238 -40 45
EPS -1,44 -0,06 0,54
EPS adj. -1,44 -0,06 0,54
Total extraordinary items after tax -14 0 0
Leasing payments -6 -4 -4
Tax rate (%) 19,8 9,9 19,9
Gross margin (%) 7,2 15,8 12,5
EBITDA margin (%) 0,9 4,7 6,8
EBITA margin (%) -5,2 -0,1 2,5
EBIT margin (%) -5,2 -0,1 2,5
Pre-tax margin (%) -6,4 -0,8 1,5
Net margin (%) -5,1 -0,7 1,2
Sales growth (%) -6,9 -1,9 6,8
EBITDA growth (%) -90,5 421,1 54,7
EBITA growth (%) -189,7 -98,5 -3366,4
EBIT growth (%) -189,7 -98,5 -3366,4
Net profit growth (%) -200,8 -86,5 -287,5
EPS growth (%) N/A -95,9 N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -16,6 -2,8 3,2
ROE adj. (%) -15,6 -2,8 3,2
ROCE (%) -8 0,3 4,4
ROCE adj. (%) -7,3 0,3 4,4
ROIC (%) -7,3 -0,1 3,4
ROIC adj. (%) -6,7 -0,1 3,4
Year N/A N/A N/A
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 42 147 228
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 1,3 4,7 6,8
EBITDA lease adj. 36 143 224
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 1,1 4,6 6,7
EBITA adj. -152 -3 84
EBITA adj. margin (%) -4,8 -0,1 2,5
EBIT adj. -152 -3 84
EBIT adj. margin (%) -4,8 -0,1 2,5
Pretax profit Adj. -190 -24 51
Net profit Adj. -149 -22 41
Net profit to shareholders adj. -224 -40 45
Net adj. margin (%) -4,7 -0,7 1,2
PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
EBITDA 28 147 228
Goodwill 8 8 8
Net financial items -38 -22 -32
Other intangible assets 85 109 109
Paid tax -37 -6 -10
Tangible fixed assets 1528 1540 1561
Non-cash items 118 -32 -32
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 72 87 153
Other Fixed Assets All 22 22 22
Change in working capital 46 -50 -32
Fixed assets 1643 1679 1700
Operating cash flow 118 37 121
Inventories 444 414 436
Capex tangible fixed assets -302 -181 -165
Receivables 368 416 465
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 173 81 86
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 152 69 62
Free cash flow -184 -143 -44
Total assets 2779 2658 2749
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 1416 1394 1427
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 282 307 312
Leasing liability amortisation -6 -4 -4
Total equity 1697 1701 1739
Other changes in net debt 92 26 41
Long-term debt 93 202 202
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 110 107 107
Short-term debt 195 128 128
Accounts payable 455 399 439
Other current liabilities 127 120 133
Total liabilities and equity 2676 2658 2749
Net IB debt 116 241 248
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 116 241 248
Net IB debt excl. leasing 116 241 248
Capital employed 1985 2032 2069
Capital invested 1916 1942 1987
Working capital 403 391 415
Market cap. diluted (m) 413 413 413
Net IB debt adj. 147 261 268
Market value of minority 282 307 312
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 841 981 993
Total assets turnover (%) 115,5 115,4 123,9
Working capital/sales (%) 13 12,7 12
Year N/A N/A N/A
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) 6,8 14,2 14,3
Net debt / market cap (%) 28,1 58,3 60,1
Equity ratio (%) 61,1 64 63,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 8,6 15,3 15,4
Current ratio 1,46 1,51 1,5
EBITDA/net interest 0,8 6,7 7,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 4,1 1,6 1,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 4 1,8 1,2
Interest coverage 3,9 0,2 2,3
PLNm 2025 2026e 2027e
Shares outstanding adj. 69 69 69
Diluted shares adj. 69 69 69
EPS -1,44 -0,06 0,54
Dividend per share 0 0 0,16
EPS adj. -1,44 -0,06 0,54
BVPS 20,43 20,12 20,59
BVPS adj. 19,08 18,43 18,91
Net IB debt/share 2,12 3,77 3,87
Share price 15,39 15,39 15,39
Market cap. (m) 413 413 413
P/E (x) N/A N/A 11,04
EV/sales (x) 0,26 0,31 0,3
EV/EBITDA (x) 29,8 6,7 4,4
EV/EBITA (x) -5,1 -382,6 11,9
EV/EBIT (x) -5,1 -382,6 11,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 2,7
FCF yield (%) -44,5 -34,8 -10,5
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -45,9 -35,8 -11,6
P/BVPS (x) 0,29 0,3 0,29
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,29 0,3 0,29
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 11
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 19,9 6,7 4,4
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -5,5 -382,6 11,9
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -5,5 -382,6 11,9
EV/CE (x) 0,4 0,5 0,5
Year N/A N/A N/A
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) -9,4 -5,8 -4,9
Capex/depreciation 1,6 1,2 1,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 19,8 11,7 10,6
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 12,46 9,71 9,24

Equity research

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Media

Arctic Paper - Company presentation with CFO Katarzyna Wojtkowiak
Arctic Paper - Fireside chat with President & CEO Michal Jarczyński

Main shareholders - Arctic Paper

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Thomas Onstad 68.3 % 68.3 % 31 Dec 2025
Norges Bank Investment Management 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2025
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.3 % 0.3 % 30 Apr 2026
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.2 % 0.2 % 30 Apr 2026
SEB Funds 0.2 % 0.2 % 30 Apr 2026
Storebrand Asset Management 0.1 % 0.1 % 30 Apr 2026
Per Lundeen 0.1 % 0.1 % 31 Dec 2023
New York City Employee Retirement System Group (NYCERS) 0.0 % 0.0 % 30 Jun 2024
Kärnavfallsfonden 0.0 % 0.0 % 31 Dec 2024
Skandia Fonder 0.0 % 0.0 % 31 Mar 2026
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB