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Energy Save

Energy Save

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Energy Save is a Swedish heat pump manufacturer (~80% residential, ~20% commercial) that uses in-house R&D and outsourced production to deliver growth above the market (>20%) and a 15% EBIT margin in the longer-term. The company has grown sales by ~30% p.a. historically, and sells its products through distributors under its own brand, and to OEMs through a private label approach

Slow uptick in heat pump demand and lack of transition from fossil-fuelled heating, lower-than-expected margin support from higher volumes, Aira partnership not being extended, continued negative cash flow generation unless volumes improve

Financials

SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 186 232 290
Sales growth (%) -24,4 24,6 25,1
EBITDA -14 8 26
EBITDA margin (%) -7,7 3,2 9
EBIT adj. -22 -1 17
EBIT adj. margin (%) -11,9 -0,5 5,9
Pretax profit -23 -2 16
EPS -3,47 -0,29 1,95
EPS growth (%) 60,7 -91,7 N/A
EPS adj. -3,47 -0,29 1,95
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -5,6 13,6 3,8
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -3,6 -93,8 5,8
P/E (x) N/A N/A 6,3
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 6,3
EV/sales (x) 0,43 0,44 0,34
FCF yield (%) -43,9 -27,3 4,6
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -43,9 -27,3 4,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0 2,9 0,7
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0 2,9 0,7
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 186 232 290
COGS -123 -151 -190
Gross profit 63 80 100
Other operating items -77 -73 -74
EBITDA -14 8 26
Depreciation and amortisation -8 -9 -9
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -22 -1 17
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -22 -1 17
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Pretax profit -23 -2 16
Tax 0 0 -3
Net profit -23 -2 13
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -23 -2 13
EPS -3,47 -0,29 1,95
EPS adj. -3,47 -0,29 1,95
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 21
Gross margin (%) 33,7 34,7 34,5
EBITDA margin (%) -7,7 3,2 9
EBITA margin (%) -11,9 -0,5 5,9
EBIT margin (%) -11,9 -0,5 5,9
Pre-tax margin (%) -12,3 -0,8 5,6
Net margin (%) -12,3 -0,8 4,4
Sales growth (%) -24,4 24,6 25,1
EBITDA growth (%) 48,2 -152,5 246,1
EBITA growth (%) 39,4 -95,1 -1664
EBIT growth (%) 39,4 -95,1 -1664
Net profit growth (%) 60,7 -91,7 -780,4
EPS growth (%) 60,7 -91,7 N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -13,5 -1,2 7,9
ROE adj. (%) -13,5 -1,2 7,9
ROCE (%) -11,6 -0,6 9,2
ROCE adj. (%) -11,6 -0,6 9,2
ROIC (%) -14,6 -0,7 7,4
ROIC adj. (%) -14,6 -0,7 7,4
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -14 8 26
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -7,7 3,2 9
EBITDA lease adj. -14 8 26
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -7,7 3,2 9
EBITA adj. -22 -1 17
EBITA adj. margin (%) -11,9 -0,5 5,9
EBIT adj. -22 -1 17
EBIT adj. margin (%) -11,9 -0,5 5,9
Pretax profit Adj. -23 -2 16
Net profit Adj. -23 -2 13
Net profit to shareholders adj. -23 -2 13
Net adj. margin (%) -12,3 -0,8 4,4
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Goodwill 0 0 0
EBITDA -14 8 26
Other intangible assets 46 45 43
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Tangible fixed assets 4 6 8
Paid tax 0 0 -3
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Non-cash items -4 0 0
Total other fixed assets 24 24 24
Cash flow before change in WC -19 7 22
Fixed assets 74 74 75
Change in working capital -3 -20 -9
Inventories 84 104 119
Operating cash flow -23 -13 13
Receivables 36 37 44
Capex tangible fixed assets 1 -2 -2
Other current assets 6 7 9
Capex intangible fixed assets -10 -7 -7
Cash and liquid assets 23 1 5
Acquisitions and Disposals -4 0 0
Total assets 224 224 251
Free cash flow -35 -22 4
Shareholders equity 157 155 168
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Total equity 157 155 168
Leasing liability amortisation N/A N/A N/A
Long-term debt 2 2 2
Other non-cash items 15 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 2 2 2
Short-term debt 21 21 21
Accounts payable 19 23 32
Other current liabilities 23 21 26
Total liabilities and equity 224 224 251
Net IB debt 0 22 18
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 0 22 18
Net IB debt excl. leasing 0 22 18
Capital employed 180 179 191
Capital invested 157 177 186
Working capital 85 105 114
Market cap. diluted (m) 80 80 80
Net IB debt adj. 0 22 18
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -24 -24 -24
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 80 102 98
Total assets turnover (%) 79,4 103,4 121,9
Working capital/sales (%) 48,9 40,9 37,6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -0,2 13,9 10,7
Net debt / market cap (%) -0,4 26,9 22,3
Equity ratio (%) 70,3 69,3 67
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -0,2 13,9 10,7
Current ratio 2,4 2,31 2,24
EBITDA/net interest 21,5 9,4 34,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0 2,9 0,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 0 2,9 0,7
Interest coverage 33,4 1,4 22,7
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Diluted shares adj. 7 7 7
EPS -3,47 -0,29 1,95
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -3,47 -0,29 1,95
BVPS 23,87 23,59 25,53
BVPS adj. 16,82 16,78 19,03
Net IB debt/share -0,04 3,28 2,72
Share price 12,2 12,2 12,2
Market cap. (m) 80 80 80
P/E (x) N/A N/A 6,3
EV/sales (x) 0,4 0,4 0,3
EV/EBITDA (x) -5,6 13,6 3,8
EV/EBITA (x) -3,6 -93,8 5,8
EV/EBIT (x) -3,6 -93,8 5,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -43,9 -27,3 4,6
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -43,9 -27,3 4,6
P/BVPS (x) 0,51 0,52 0,48
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,73 0,73 0,64
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 6,3
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -5,6 13,6 3,8
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -3,6 -93,8 5,8
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -3,6 -93,8 5,8
EV/CE (x) 0,4 0,6 0,5
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 4,9 3,8 3,2
Capex/depreciation 1,2 1 1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 21,5 33,2 29,7
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 21,3 15,5 16,2
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 17 19,2 20,8
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 1,3

Equity research

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Media

Energy Save - Company presentation with CEO Fredrik Sävenstrand & CFO Helena Wachtmeister

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Main shareholders - Energy Save

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Christian Gulbrandsen 14.1 % 37.4 % 28 Jan 2026
Project Air AB 13.6 % 37.2 % 28 Jan 2026
Theodor Jeansson Jr. 9.3 % 3.3 % 28 Jan 2026
Nordea Funds 7.9 % 2.8 % 28 Jan 2026
Avanza Pension 4.4 % 1.5 % 28 Jan 2026
Henrik Nilsson 3.0 % 1.0 % 28 Jan 2026
Bo Westerberg 2.3 % 0.8 % 28 Jan 2026
Linus Åke Fredrik Lindström 2.1 % 0.7 % 28 Jan 2026
Jan-Erik Olsson 1.5 % 0.5 % 28 Jan 2026
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 1.5 % 0.5 % 28 Jan 2026
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB