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Energy Save

Energy Save

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Energy Save is a Swedish heat pump manufacturer (~80% residential, ~20% commercial) that uses in-house R&D and outsourced production to deliver growth above the market (>20%) and a 15% EBIT margin in the longer-term. The company has grown sales by ~30% p.a. historically, and sells its products through distributors under its own brand, and to OEMs through a private label approach

Slow uptick in heat pump demand and lack of transition from fossil-fuelled heating, lower-than-expected margin support from higher volumes, Aira partnership not being extended, continued negative cash flow generation unless volumes improve

Financials

SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 246 178 242
Sales growth (%) 44,3 -27,5 35,8
EBITDA -10 -14 14
EBITDA margin (%) -3,9 -7,6 5,8
EBIT adj. -16 -21 7
EBIT adj. margin (%) -6,5 -11,7 2,8
Pretax profit -16 -21 7
EPS -2,16 -3,22 0,79
EPS growth (%) -60,7 49,3 N/A
EPS adj. -2,16 -3,22 0,79
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -7,6 -4,3 3,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -4,6 -2,8 6,4
P/E (x) N/A N/A 20,4
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 20,4
EV/sales (x) 0,3 0,33 0,18
FCF yield (%) -24,9 13,7 14,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -24,9 13,7 14,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 3,5 3,6 -4,6
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 3,5 3,6 -4,6
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Sales 246 178 242
COGS -160 -117 -157
Gross profit 86 62 85
Other operating items -96 -75 -71
EBITDA -10 -14 14
Depreciation and amortisation -6 -7 -7
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA -16 -21 7
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -16 -21 7
Net financial items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -16 -21 7
Tax 2 0 -1
Net profit -14 -21 5
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -14 -21 5
EPS -2,16 -3,22 0,79
EPS adj. -2,16 -3,22 0,79
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 12,7 0 20
Gross margin (%) 35 34,7 35
EBITDA margin (%) -3,9 -7,6 5,8
EBITA margin (%) -6,5 -11,7 2,8
EBIT margin (%) -6,5 -11,7 2,8
Pre-tax margin (%) -6,6 -11,9 2,7
Net margin (%) -5,8 -11,9 2,2
Sales growth (%) 44,3 -27,5 35,8
EBITDA growth (%) -56,8 39,9 -203,3
EBITA growth (%) -43,4 31,6 -132,2
EBIT growth (%) -43,4 31,6 -132,2
Net profit growth (%) -48,3 49,3 -124,6
EPS growth (%) -60,7 49,3 N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -7,7 -12,5 3,2
ROE adj. (%) -7,7 -12,5 3,2
ROCE (%) -7,8 -11 3,7
ROCE adj. (%) -7,8 -11 3,7
ROIC (%) -9,2 -16,3 5,1
ROIC adj. (%) -9,2 -16,3 5,1
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -10 -14 14
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -3,9 -7,6 5,8
EBITDA lease adj. -10 -14 14
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -3,9 -7,6 5,8
EBITA adj. -16 -21 7
EBITA adj. margin (%) -6,5 -11,7 2,8
EBIT adj. -16 -21 7
EBIT adj. margin (%) -6,5 -11,7 2,8
Pretax profit Adj. -16 -21 7
Net profit Adj. -14 -21 5
Net profit to shareholders adj. -14 -21 5
Net adj. margin (%) -5,8 -11,9 2,2
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Goodwill 0 0 0
EBITDA -10 -14 14
Other intangible assets 39 37 36
Net financial items 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 5 6 8
Paid tax 0 0 -1
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Non-cash items 4 0 0
Total other fixed assets 21 21 21
Cash flow before change in WC -6 -14 12
Fixed assets 65 64 65
Change in working capital 0 35 11
Inventories 99 71 61
Operating cash flow -6 21 23
Receivables 21 20 32
Capex tangible fixed assets -3 -1 -2
Other current assets 6 5 7
Capex intangible fixed assets -18 -5 -6
Cash and liquid assets 54 69 84
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Total assets 245 230 249
Free cash flow -27 15 15
Shareholders equity 180 159 164
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Total equity 180 159 164
Leasing liability amortisation N/A N/A N/A
Long-term debt 2 4 2
Other non-cash items 19 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 14 14 14
Short-term debt 19 17 19
Accounts payable 17 16 24
Other current liabilities 12 19 25
Total liabilities and equity 245 230 249
Net IB debt -34 -48 -64
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -34 -48 -64
Net IB debt excl. leasing -34 -48 -64
Capital employed 201 180 185
Capital invested 147 111 101
Working capital 97 62 51
Market cap. diluted (m) 107 107 107
Net IB debt adj. -34 -48 -64
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -20 -20 -20
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 73 58 43
Total assets turnover (%) 92,3 75,2 101,2
Working capital/sales (%) 41,6 44,5 23,3
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -18,6 -30,3 -38,7
Net debt / market cap (%) -31,5 -45,2 -59,6
Equity ratio (%) 73,6 69,3 66,1
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -18,6 -30,3 -38,7
Current ratio 3,74 3,17 2,71
EBITDA/net interest 27 48,9 61,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 3,5 3,6 -4,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 3,5 3,6 -4,6
Interest coverage 44,5 75,9 29,9
SEKm 2024 2025e 2026e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 7 7
Diluted shares adj. 7 7 7
EPS -2,16 -3,22 0,79
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -2,16 -3,22 0,79
BVPS 27,38 24,15 24,95
BVPS adj. 21,42 18,51 19,5
Net IB debt/share -5,1 -7,32 -9,66
Share price 16,2 16,2 16,2
Market cap. (m) 107 107 107
P/E (x) N/A N/A 20,4
EV/sales (x) 0,3 0,3 0,2
EV/EBITDA (x) -7,6 -4,3 3,1
EV/EBITA (x) -4,6 -2,8 6,4
EV/EBIT (x) -4,6 -2,8 6,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -24,9 13,7 14,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -24,9 13,7 14,4
P/BVPS (x) 0,59 0,67 0,65
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,76 0,88 0,83
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 20,4
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -7,6 -4,3 3,1
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -4,6 -2,8 6,4
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -4,6 -2,8 6,4
EV/CE (x) 0,4 0,3 0,2
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 8,4 3,8 3,2
Capex/depreciation 3,3 0,9 1,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 53,1 22,7 23,9
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 45,8 14,4 16,2
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 16 20 19,8
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 1,2

Equity research

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Media

Energy Save - Company presentation with CEO Fredrik Sävenstrand & CFO Helena Wachtmeister

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Main shareholders - Energy Save

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Christian Gulbrandsen 14.1 % 37.4 % 29 Oct 2025
Project Air AB 13.6 % 37.2 % 29 Oct 2025
Theodor Jeansson Jr. 9.3 % 3.3 % 29 Oct 2025
Nordea Funds 7.9 % 2.8 % 29 Oct 2025
Avanza Pension 4.9 % 1.7 % 29 Oct 2025
Henrik Nilsson 3.0 % 1.0 % 29 Oct 2025
Bo Westerberg 2.3 % 0.8 % 29 Oct 2025
Linus Åke Fredrik Lindström 2.1 % 0.7 % 29 Oct 2025
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 1.8 % 0.6 % 29 Oct 2025
Jan-Erik Olsson 1.5 % 0.5 % 29 Oct 2025
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB