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Inission - Q2 margin declines, but positives as well

27 augusti 2024

<a id="bm-comp-fb4600f0-dc42-440a-a78b-e4e560fa6a1d" name="bm-comp-fb4600f0-dc42-440a-a78b-e4e560fa6a1d" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="fb4600f0-dc42-440a-a78b-e4e560fa6a1d" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Weak Q2 margin of 5.0% (7.3%), but book-to-bill improved to 0.81</li><li>We cut '24e-'26e EBITA by 5%, '24 targets look challenging</li><li>New bank terms soften EPS cuts (3-1%), lower interest, higher NWC</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-d7a69b2b-98e8-4ccb-b840-645e63631ea9" name="bm-comp-d7a69b2b-98e8-4ccb-b840-645e63631ea9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="d7a69b2b-98e8-4ccb-b840-645e63631ea9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2: Margin suffers as costs lag, but book-to-bill improved</h3><p>Sales came in slightly above our expectations at SEK 570m, up 1% y-o-y (8% M&amp;A, -7% org. &amp; FX), but the EBITA margin was only 5.0% (7.3%), missing our estimate of 6.8%, mainly due to higher than anticipated personnel costs, driven by annual salary increases and a lagging impact of cost reductions. Book-to bill improved to 0.81, compared to the Q4 low of 0.59, and the Q1 figure of 0.73. Lease adj. FCF was SEK -29m, driven by an increase in receivables of SEK 30m. The increase was due to the decision to stop factoring invoices following new improved terms with the company's bank.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">EBITA down ~5%, but new bank terms help EPS</h3><p>The demand situation seems stabilised, and the company reiterated its SEK 2.4bn sales and 7.0% EBITA targets, but Q2 causes us to reduce '24e-'26e EBITA by ~5%. We think it will be difficult to reach particularly the sales target, forecasting SEK 2.26bn instead, and while the margin target seems more manageable considering the strong Q1 and the coming cost reductions, we err on the side of caution, estimating 6.9%. The company also announced that it has achieved better terms with its bank, which will result in significant cost savings. The new terms comprise a lower interest rate, and the replacement of the company's factoring programme with a cash credit. Management expects an additional build-up of SEK 30m in receivables due to this, but over time the new structure will be beneficial. This causes EPS reductions of only 1-3%, despite the larger reductions of EBITA.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value SEK 50-70</h3><p><font color="#000000">The share is down 18% L3M (vs. Nordic peer average -6%, OMXSSMAC +1%) and is currently trading at 10-8x '24e-'26e P/E on our updated estimates (vs. peers at 14-10x), which is 30-15% lower than its historical median. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 50-70.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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