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Xplora Technologies - Q4 subscriber beat lifts '25e EBITA by 6%

06 januari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-f9f6a88c-4337-4d39-a20f-a2bf0230d374" name="bm-comp-f9f6a88c-4337-4d39-a20f-a2bf0230d374" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f9f6a88c-4337-4d39-a20f-a2bf0230d374" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4 number of subsscribers 2% above ABGSCe driven by premium</li><li>The beat would lift service revenue by NOK 5m or 1.5%...</li><li>... and '25-'26e EBITA by 6-4%</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-e296bdf5-f582-4b25-ad3e-614fe55bf727" name="bm-comp-e296bdf5-f582-4b25-ad3e-614fe55bf727" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e296bdf5-f582-4b25-ad3e-614fe55bf727" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q4 subscribers 2% above ABGSC, up 39% y-o-y</h3><p>Has released its monthly subscription update for December. The total number of subscriptions at the end of Q4 was 358k, 2% above ABGSCe at 351k. This is an increase of 39% y-o-y driven by gross new additions of 61k in the quarter. The beat was driven by premium subscriptions of 75k, which was above our estimate of 67k. It is our impression that connectivity subscriptions was approximately in-line with our estimate of 258k. According to Xplora, Germany continues to be the largest gross contributor, with 6k connectivity additions in December. Churn was in-line with our estimate of 9% in the quarter.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Beat would lift '25-'26e EBITA by 6-4%</h3><p>The beat vs. our estimate would in isolation lift recurring subscription revenue by NOK 5m on an annual basis. This corresponds to an increase in annual service revenue of 1.5% and would all else equal lift '25-'26e EBITA by 6-4%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Doro acquisition: ISP has dismissed its review means there is a high likelihood of deal going through</h3><p>On 20 December, Xplora announced that the the Swedish Inspectorate of Strategic Products (ISP) had resolved to conclude its review of Xplora's proposed acquisition of Doro. As a result, there were no further regulatory requirements needed to be fulfilled in order to proceed with the proposed offer. Hence, Xplora announced that it would shorten its acceptance period to 13 January 2025. Xplora has previously announced that it has passed the 90% threshold meaning. As a result, we assess that there is a high probability that the deal will go through.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b3223a77-1ccd-4d44-a7bc-6f65da8db633" name="bm-comp-b3223a77-1ccd-4d44-a7bc-6f65da8db633" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><a id="bm-comp-0a7d700f-458d-4c06-9751-79afb2c7d1e4" name="bm-comp-0a7d700f-458d-4c06-9751-79afb2c7d1e4" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b3223a77-1ccd-4d44-a7bc-6f65da8db633" style="vertical-align: top; width:50.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-efa76abd-3de4-4ce3-9c6b-d1f03d1d4ed5" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Number of subscriptions by quarter</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="efa76abd-3de4-4ce3-9c6b-d1f03d1d4ed5" bm-img-original-height="464" bm-img-original-width="760" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/84175_3690ce99-28ea-4b79-b637-0b7e7bb69764.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-efa76abd-3de4-4ce3-9c6b-d1f03d1d4ed5" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/84175_3690ce99-28ea-4b79-b637-0b7e7bb69764_363.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/84175_3690ce99-28ea-4b79-b637-0b7e7bb69764.svg" width="363" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Xplora Technologies</td></tr></table></td><td bm-component-id="0a7d700f-458d-4c06-9751-79afb2c7d1e4" style="vertical-align: top; width:50.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-ec359aa3-fb38-46ba-a93d-7b35670f3b3b" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Subscription breakdown by type, Q4'24</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="ec359aa3-fb38-46ba-a93d-7b35670f3b3b" bm-img-original-height="464" bm-img-original-width="760" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/84175_def985a7-212c-4400-87ba-5add38ea7451.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-ec359aa3-fb38-46ba-a93d-7b35670f3b3b" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/84175_def985a7-212c-4400-87ba-5add38ea7451_363.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/84175_def985a7-212c-4400-87ba-5add38ea7451.svg" width="363" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Xplora Technologies</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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