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Ovzon - Inks record-high order with SSC

18 december 2024

<a id="bm-comp-68164642-6837-4c66-aad5-99c8881df823" name="bm-comp-68164642-6837-4c66-aad5-99c8881df823" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="68164642-6837-4c66-aad5-99c8881df823" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>SEK 185m order from Swedish Space Corporation on Ovzon-3</li><li>The full value will be paid in January 2025</li><li>Supportive to estimates of a ramp-up in sales in '25e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b6767d4a-29ee-4a48-8594-bbc079208d47" name="bm-comp-b6767d4a-29ee-4a48-8594-bbc079208d47" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b6767d4a-29ee-4a48-8594-bbc079208d47" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Record-high Ovzon-3 order from SSC</h3><p>Yesterday evening Ovzon announced that it had received a new order from Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) for Ovzon-3. The order value of SEK 185m for the 12-month contract is a record high order value which, combined with the fact that it relates to Ovzon-3 - Ovzon's proprietary satellite which went into commercial operation this summer - means that this is a major step forward for Ovzon; both in terms of commercial success, revenues, and cash flow. On a positive note, the full amount of SEK 185m will be paid in January 2025. The order includes both SATCOM services and terminals (breakdown undisclosed), with delivery of the terminals starting immediately and the services starting in Q1'25. This means that the order will run in parallel with the recent SEK 132m order from SSC (12-month contract, announced in Sept), which relates to leased capacity.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">~40% of Ovzon-3 could now be utilised</h3><p>As no capacity information has been announced, it is difficult to calculate how much of Ovzon-3's capacity is now utilised as a result of this announcement (we estimate Q3 utilisation at 8%, driven by the USD 6.2m DoD contract from August). However, if we assume that SEK 150m (of the SEK 185m) is for SATCOM services, while assuming that a fully utilised satellite (albeit not with optimised pricing) could generate annual revenues of ~SEK 570m (~USD 52m), we calculate that ~40% of capacity is now utilised.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Neutral impact on sales estimates</h3><p>As we already assume a gradual capacity ramp-up at Ovzon-3, the announcement is unlikely to move cons' 2025e sales estimates materially, although the announcement is indeed positive due to 1) increased visibility and strengthened estimates, 2) significant cash flow contribution already in Q1'25. We estimate 2025e revenues of SEK 574m (+75% y-o-y), together with adj. EBIT of SEK 117m (vs. SEK -79m in '24e). At the current price, this corresponds to 17x EV/EBIT, while we see a multiple of 9x in '26e.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-c6de4098-dc10-4e6c-96c8-8a18828ef418" name="bm-comp-c6de4098-dc10-4e6c-96c8-8a18828ef418" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="c6de4098-dc10-4e6c-96c8-8a18828ef418" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-1c03d10c-0f35-4f1b-929c-fd596ea9e7b8" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Ovzon order announcements (USDm)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="1c03d10c-0f35-4f1b-929c-fd596ea9e7b8" bm-img-original-height="415" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/84042_5e384992-5878-4928-aa3c-f6e8b175cf90.svg" bm-img-width-hint="95.46%" id="bm-id-6b9ae54a-4334-4ddd-abc0-7c1c89fc233e" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/84042_5e384992-5878-4928-aa3c-f6e8b175cf90_694.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/84042_5e384992-5878-4928-aa3c-f6e8b175cf90.svg" width="694" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-0174d147-78ba-4cd1-aab6-5c8ef13674ec" name="bm-comp-0174d147-78ba-4cd1-aab6-5c8ef13674ec" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0174d147-78ba-4cd1-aab6-5c8ef13674ec" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-0c10850d-b24c-4831-a4a5-0ef8f2670baf" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Ovzon-3 assumptions (ABGSCe)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="0c10850d-b24c-4831-a4a5-0ef8f2670baf" bm-img-original-height="378" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/84042_efe5d620-832b-4e8f-95d2-319504164cd3.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-0c10850d-b24c-4831-a4a5-0ef8f2670baf" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/84042_efe5d620-832b-4e8f-95d2-319504164cd3_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/84042_efe5d620-832b-4e8f-95d2-319504164cd3.svg" width="726" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-6fc764a1-e3db-4974-a8f3-f7d313c3d1e3" name="bm-comp-6fc764a1-e3db-4974-a8f3-f7d313c3d1e3" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="6fc764a1-e3db-4974-a8f3-f7d313c3d1e3" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-1e5595fa-19c8-4c64-851d-9bf95194a8a3" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Sales, quarterly (SEKm)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="1e5595fa-19c8-4c64-851d-9bf95194a8a3" bm-img-original-height="388" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/84042_1b3e2249-521c-4bf4-8f32-813b87c97f4a.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-147fd219-e303-436c-b072-a789ff39d471" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/84042_1b3e2249-521c-4bf4-8f32-813b87c97f4a_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/84042_1b3e2249-521c-4bf4-8f32-813b87c97f4a.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-10c1eef5-2f7d-424e-812b-980098bcb0ef" name="bm-comp-10c1eef5-2f7d-424e-812b-980098bcb0ef" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="10c1eef5-2f7d-424e-812b-980098bcb0ef" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-a3e668fc-a079-459e-baee-0d9e84970a0a" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Sales breakdown (SEKm)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="a3e668fc-a079-459e-baee-0d9e84970a0a" bm-img-original-height="373" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/84042_ba49d2e2-3578-4a2b-8dce-96c9dc407481.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-ca641272-c5e8-48b7-9076-2a36c0892715" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/84042_ba49d2e2-3578-4a2b-8dce-96c9dc407481_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/84042_ba49d2e2-3578-4a2b-8dce-96c9dc407481.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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