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OrderYOYO - Will the YOYO also prove unstoppable in '25e?

03 januari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-f833c49c-9dd6-492a-a729-59f4c8372a2b" name="bm-comp-f833c49c-9dd6-492a-a729-59f4c8372a2b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f833c49c-9dd6-492a-a729-59f4c8372a2b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Solid Q4e ahead, likely to end '24e with a fifth guidance upgrade</li><li>Market conditions appear unchanged; FY'25 guidance is too cautious</li><li>Marginal sales and EBIT estimate revisions: FVR to DKK 8-15 (7-15)</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b78cd448-f12a-409b-92e2-6d003976702c" name="bm-comp-b78cd448-f12a-409b-92e2-6d003976702c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b78cd448-f12a-409b-92e2-6d003976702c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>Solid Q4e likely to include a fifth FY'24 guidance upgrade</strong></h3><p>We expect another strong quarterly report from OrderYOYO (Q4 due on 17 January) and anticipate the fifth upgrade of the FY'24 guidance YTD. We forecast GMV of DKK 3,405m and ARR of DKK 351m, equating to a take rate of ~10% and 18.5% y-o-y ARR growth. The corresponding organic growth is ~14% after the inclusion of an estimated DKK 12m in ARR from the recently acquired App4 (assuming a take rate of 5%). Based off DKK 82m in Q4e revenues (vs. the implied DKK 79m from the high end of guidance and DKK 78m in Q3), we model adj. EBITDA of DKK 16m. This equates to a margin of 20%, up 7pp y-o-y and up 1pp q-o-q, and takes the FY'24e figure 3% above the high end of guidance. We are also 5% above the cash EBITDA guidance despite a q-o-q increase in capitalised R&amp;D.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>Markets mostly unchanged; FY'25 guidance still too cautious</strong></h3><p>OrderYOYO's key markets appear mostly unchanged, so we remain above all five FY'25 guidance items. We are 3% above the high end of the ARR guidance, forecasting 18% y-o-y growth in '25e, driven mostly by higher volumes and less so by price hikes. Although we note a material pick-up in hirings lately (as judged by our LinkedIn tracker), a good chunk of this is likely driven by "noise" from the consolidation of App4, meaning we expect OrderYOYO to exhibit strong operating leverage in '25e as well. Our forecast points to a 5pp y-o-y increase in the adj. EBITDA margin to 22%, placing us 16% above the high end of guidance.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>Limited estimate revisions; FVR raised to DKK 8-15 (7-15)</strong></h3><p>OrderYOYO is currently trading at 2.9-1.8x EV/Sales and 45-11x EV/EBITDA-capex in '24e-'26e. We make no material '24e-'26e EBIT estimate revisions, but peer multiple expansion and increased focus on '25e multiples prompt us to raise our one-year forward FVR to DKK 8-15 (7-15).</p></td></tr></table>

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