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Proact - A bitter end to an otherwise good year

16 december 2024

<a id="bm-comp-b5cf2554-c11c-4877-b743-df70cb9274f0" name="bm-comp-b5cf2554-c11c-4877-b743-df70cb9274f0" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b5cf2554-c11c-4877-b743-df70cb9274f0" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Surprising Q4 PW and CEO resignation, but likely two isolated events</li><li>Volatile systems business behind Q4 EBITA -40% vs cons</li><li>2025 estimates likely cut by 5-10%, and multiple could get a hit</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-8f220f65-7a66-4324-924d-1b09a3791e6d" name="bm-comp-8f220f65-7a66-4324-924d-1b09a3791e6d" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="8f220f65-7a66-4324-924d-1b09a3791e6d" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q4 PW and CEO resignation likely two separate events</h3><p>Proact sent out a surprising Q4 PW and CEO resignation this morning. The CEO, Jonas Hasselberg, has signed on with a PE-owned IT company in Sweden (no competing business) for an opportunity he couldn't resist, and says it is unrelated to the Q4 results. Q4 PW is driven by a volatile (as usual) systems business with large hardware shipments that are lumpy between quarters. Q4 EBITA guided to be down 20-30% y-o-y, which is -40% vs FactSet consensus, driven by weaker Nordics &amp; Baltics after a couple of strong quarters and a challenging German market overall. Proact comments that the development is mainly of a temporary nature.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates down 5-10%, stock to underperform</h3><p>Obviously, we view today's news as clearly negative and 2025 consensus estimates are likely to be cut by 5-10% (2024 by 12% isolated to the Q4 miss) and the stock will underperform given the increased uncertainty around the CEO resignation. Proact was on track to achieve what we believe is an ambitious margin target, and we have been impressed by Mr. Hasselberg's time with the company since he joined in 2018. His departure surprises us more than the volatile systems business, which happens between quarters.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-f19bf794-f70b-4ec0-8e5a-6b77d212caf6" name="bm-comp-f19bf794-f70b-4ec0-8e5a-6b77d212caf6" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f19bf794-f70b-4ec0-8e5a-6b77d212caf6" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-e6d8eaf5-025e-44e3-8358-fda49a399619" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Systems organic growth, usually high volatility (~55% of group sales)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="e6d8eaf5-025e-44e3-8358-fda49a399619" bm-img-original-height="456" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83989_cb7a3086-4ffb-4790-9352-4c353e5af2ff.svg" bm-img-width-hint="72.63%" id="bm-id-e6d8eaf5-025e-44e3-8358-fda49a399619" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83989_cb7a3086-4ffb-4790-9352-4c353e5af2ff_528.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83989_cb7a3086-4ffb-4790-9352-4c353e5af2ff.svg" width="528" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-66d22f45-348a-43b4-90f7-69ea18dfbeef" name="bm-comp-66d22f45-348a-43b4-90f7-69ea18dfbeef" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="66d22f45-348a-43b4-90f7-69ea18dfbeef" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-7641e53d-c6f7-4fc4-ba42-3ed408df14be" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Sales and adj. EBITA margin (pre Q4 PW)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="7641e53d-c6f7-4fc4-ba42-3ed408df14be" bm-img-original-height="482" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83989_9889f7cc-8ea7-4560-b85a-4c97613e7eee.svg" bm-img-width-hint="72.63%" id="bm-id-7641e53d-c6f7-4fc4-ba42-3ed408df14be" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83989_9889f7cc-8ea7-4560-b85a-4c97613e7eee_528.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83989_9889f7cc-8ea7-4560-b85a-4c97613e7eee.svg" width="528" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-a11452de-b72b-4968-984e-57d7e24f23df" name="bm-comp-a11452de-b72b-4968-984e-57d7e24f23df" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="a11452de-b72b-4968-984e-57d7e24f23df" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-cfd1fdf2-4020-49d7-b67f-37cf1797ab08" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">NTM EV/EBITA vs peers (pre Q4 PW)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="cfd1fdf2-4020-49d7-b67f-37cf1797ab08" bm-img-original-height="445" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83989_4de2bd3f-78d8-43dd-9b7c-2720cfbee830.svg" bm-img-width-hint="72.63%" id="bm-id-cfd1fdf2-4020-49d7-b67f-37cf1797ab08" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83989_4de2bd3f-78d8-43dd-9b7c-2720cfbee830_528.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83989_4de2bd3f-78d8-43dd-9b7c-2720cfbee830.svg" width="528" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, peers: ATEA, Dustin, Bechtle, Cancom</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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