<a id="bm-comp-b91b401d-c197-4eab-bfd3-ab8698d3ea9c" name="bm-comp-b91b401d-c197-4eab-bfd3-ab8698d3ea9c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b91b401d-c197-4eab-bfd3-ab8698d3ea9c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4 report due 11 February</li><li>We forecast Q4 net sales of SEK 520m & EBITA of SEK 78m</li><li>We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 39-55</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-191b259b-d306-4517-901f-bb679a2ce176" name="bm-comp-191b259b-d306-4517-901f-bb679a2ce176" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="191b259b-d306-4517-901f-bb679a2ce176" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Macro outlook keeps improving</h3><p>Housing transactions are growing again in the Nordics, and are now +7% LTM. While the primary market is still sluggish, as evidenced by the low number of build starts, we believe this could support Nordic growth into 2025. We see a positive trend in the UK, where CPA (Construction Products Association) market estimates are becoming gradually more optimistic, and the trade organisation forecasts a market recovery in 2025 with growth of 3%. We expect that macro improvements have yet to reach Svedbergs Group's market as of Q4'24e, however, where we expect an organic decline of 4%. Thebalux contributes structural growth for net sales of SEK 520m, +13% y-o-y. We expect Roper Rhodes' price hikes to be in comps for broadly flat gross margins, but Thebalux' better opex efficiency means that we forecast SEK 78m in EBITA, +32% y-o-y (+19m y-o-y, of which SEK 17m is attributable to the inclusion of Thebalux).</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Limited estimate revisions, -2% for '24e-'26e</h3><p style="text-align:left;">We make limited estimate revisions in this note, raising growth forecasts for Roper Rhodes on the back of more favourable CPA market estimates. Looking ahead, improving housing macro data supports our 5% '25e organic growth estimate, and Svedbergs Group's balance sheet looks to be able to support another acquisition within a couple of quarters, with an estimated 1.4x ND/EBITDA in Q4'25 following a full earn-out payment (estimated at SEK 168m) to Roper Rhodes' previous owners.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range of SEK 39-55 reiterated</h3><p>We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 39-55 in this note, making only minimal estimate revisions. Our fair value range corresponds to 7-10x '25e EV/EBITA, slightly above its two-year trading span of 6.5x-8x NTM EV/EBITA, as we expect that better momentum in 2025 could alleviate a degree of market uncertainty.</p></td></tr></table>