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Catella - Market activity has bottomed out

27 augusti 2024

<a id="bm-comp-f181fc63-4f57-4722-82c1-5b813de758d4" name="bm-comp-f181fc63-4f57-4722-82c1-5b813de758d4" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f181fc63-4f57-4722-82c1-5b813de758d4" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Market headwinds continued in Q2</font></li><li><font color="#000000">We lower 2025e EBIT on slower recovery in activity</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Easy comps in '24e-'26e with EV/EBIT of 3-5x and 4-8% div. yield</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-069addec-005a-4eb2-8965-4fc5f1386a4e" name="bm-comp-069addec-005a-4eb2-8965-4fc5f1386a4e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="069addec-005a-4eb2-8965-4fc5f1386a4e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Market activity remained muted in Q2</h3><p>Transaction activity has remained hesitant since the start of 2024, which negatively impacts Catella. Despite increasing transaction volumes q-o-q, it remains at historically low levels, leading to low earnings contributions from the different operational segments. The quarter was boosted by the divestment of CatWave to S&#246;derberg and Partners, which had a positive profit effect of SEK 18m, leading to EBIT coming in 41% above ABGSC expectations, at SEK 34m. We expect to see transaction activity gradually improve in the coming quarters, with Catella's earnings generation following suit.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Slower activity recovery sees us cut our 2025 estimates</h3><p>Our group EBIT estimates are kept largely intact for 2024. For 2025, we pencil in a slower recovery in transaction activity vs. our previous assumption, leading us to cut our earnings assumptions for all three operational segments, reducing 2025 EBIT by 26%. We continue to forecast strong earnings growth the coming years, with transaction activity picking up, as rates continue lower.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">2025e EV/EBIT of 5x with a 4-8% annual div. yield</h3><p>In our view, the company has many attractive fundamentals, including an impressive track record within Investment Management and intriguing own property investments. The balance sheet and cash position remain strong, which provides Catella with the necessary dry powder to act if attractive opportunities arise. Applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at a 2024e-26e EV/EBIT of 3-5x and offers an appealing dividend yield of 4-8% p.a. during our forecast horizon. The comps are easy, and we expect to see a divestment of Kaktus in the short term, which will be a material positive earnings contributor.</p></td></tr></table>

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