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Merger with NetelThe main event in the quarter is the merger between Infrea and Netel, as we wrote about in our Fast Comment (Infrea and Netel to merger). Completion is conditional on approval at extraordinary general meetings in August '26, competition clearance, and Netel's rights issue of ~SEK 127m, with registration at the Swedish Companies Registration Office expected in Q4'26. A prospectus with more detail on the combined company will be published in July '26. The combined entity will have revenues of ~SEK 5bn and is expected to generate annual cost synergies of ~SEK 50m within 12–24 months, with Infrea's CEO Martin Reinholdsson as new CEO. The merger diversifies the portfolio, lowers the risk, and lets the company leverage its greater scale. Infrea's management has a proven track record of turning around infrastructure companies, from Infrea in '23, key for Netel given its current state. Focus in the quarterDuring the quarter, Infrea has announced three order wins, one of which contains several contracts, for an amount of SEK 360m. It is positive to see Infrea being able to take on larger contracts, leveraging the scale of the group. For estimates, we lower '26e sales by 1% and '26e EBITA by SEK 3m as we believe Q2'26 will have a tough comp in Paving Services. We now forecast '26 adj. EBITA of SEK 53m (SEK 49m '25), accelerating to SEK 65m in 2027e, as margins rise from 2.2% in '25 to 3.0% in '27e. Infrea is pegged to NetelFor now, Infrea's share price is pegged to Netel's, and we have therefore removed our fair value range. The merger's exchange ratio is 17 new Netel shares for every 4 Infrea shares, i.e., 4.25 Netel shares per Infrea share. Netel closed today at SEK 3.31 per share, implying a value of SEK 14.07 per Infrea share. Netel reports on 10 July and currently has no analyst consensus. |