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Q2 expectationsWe expect Q2 sales to be flat y-o-y at SEK 229m, with adj. EBIT of SEK 15m (16m) for an adj. margin of 6.8% (6.9%). For FM&WM, we expect continued good momentum and estimate sales of SEK 109m (107m) for an adj. margin of 16.4% (16.2%). Scandpower remains volatile due to the quarterly nature of software licence sales; we estimate sales of SEK 37m (36m) for an adj. EBIT margin of 7% (6.5%). For Decommissioning, persistent competitor price pressure continues to weigh on the segment's near-term profitability in the segment. However, we think margins will continue to stabilise following Q1 structural improvements such as improved capacity utilisation and cost efficiencies. We estimate a Q2 EBIT margin of 4.6% (4.9%). Estimate changesWe lower '26e EBIT by 3% and leave '27e-'28e broadly unchanged ahead of the Q1 report. New-build optionality starts to take shapeThe SMR optionality acquired with Kärnfull Next, completed in May, is becoming a reality: Studsvik has applied for government approval of up to 1,400 MW of new nuclear power at its own site in Nyköping, and for state support covering both this and a second project in Valdemarsvik (~1,200-1,600 MW), with a county facility plan due by end-2026. Other parts of the business are also progressing: in June, the NRC approved an extension of Scandpower's CMS5 software for use with higher enrichment, higher burnup and light-water SMR designs. As well, a fuel-technology collaboration with Lightbridge was announced in May. The stock is trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 27x-20x on our estimates. |