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Merchant growth to remain the key driverFollowing Q1’s return to profitability, we expect Qliro to remain profitable in Q2, forecasting operating profit rising to SEK 8.6m (5% above FactSet consensus). We expect TPV to increase by 28% q-o-q and 40% y-o-y to SEK 5.8bn, supported by stronger seasonal consumer spending ahead of the summer period and continued merchant ramp-up. At the same time, the completed ~SEK 100m equity raise (SEK 60m rights issue and ~SEK 40m over-allotment) should strengthen the CET1 ratio and support continued loan book expansion. We forecast a CET1 ratio of 18% (vs. consensus at 17.2%), supported by the equity raise and retained earnings. We view TPV development, merchant onboarding and capital generation as the key indicators to watch in Q2. Forecasts intact ahead of Q2Ahead of Q2, we leave our estimates unchanged following our recent initiation. We continue to forecast total income of SEK 126.8m (+31.4% y-o-y), driven primarily by net interest income of SEK 102.9m and a continued loan book expansion at SEK 2,050m. At the same time, we expect total costs of SEK 91.2m (vs. consensus at SEK 93.5m). Key long-term earnings drivers intactIncreasing merchant onboarding, higher BNPL penetration and continued loan book expansion should remain the key long-term earnings drivers. As profitability improves, we forecast operating profit to increase from SEK 37m in 2026e to SEK 116m in 2028e, while the company trades at 31x, 13x and 8x P/E and 1.0x, 0.9x and 0.8x P/BV for '26e, '27e and '28e, respectively. Lastly, Qliro appointed Evelin Kaup as Deputy CEO during Q2 as part of a broader organisational restructuring. We view the updated management structure as an area to monitor as the company continues to scale its operations. |