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Q2e largely similar to Q1We expect Q2 to be broadly similar to Q1, with the main difference being an increased contribution from the EU NATO customer (which was utilised in the middle of Q1), while the still-not-renewed SSC contract is a headwind. This leads us to estimate SATCOM sales of SEK 176m, down from SEK 188m in Q1. The backlog of terminals remains strong, and we anticipate linear deliveries throughout 2026, with SEK 70m in Q2e (SEK 72m in Q1). In total, we forecast Q2 net sales of SEK 246m, +48% y-o-y. Regarding margins, the product mix remains favourable, while opex continue to grow gradually. We see EBIT of SEK 69m, for a margin of 28%. Given the payment plans previously announced with the company's largest customer – the Swedish FMV – we see strong FCF of SEK 113m. Small estimate revisionsAlthough general demand for SATCOM continues to grow, there been little activity in terms of orders since December. Recently, Ovzon signed a SEK 74m renewal contract with an EU NATO customer, but more orders are needed for the company to meet our SEK 1,034m sales estimate for 2026 (although ~SEK 800m of this is already in the backlog). Due to its high customer concentration, lead times are long. Therefore, we are not concerned and expect more orders ahead. Still, we cut '26e EBIT by 4% due to slightly lower sales assumptions. Still more Ovzon-3-related headroomModern warfare is increasingly fought across domains where satellite connectivity has become mission-critical, driving a structural, multi-year uplift in space investments. Ovzon is well-positioned to capture this demand given its specialisation in high-resilience, high-throughput SATCOM solutions. With Ovzon-3 still at ~50% utilisation, it still has meaningful capacity headroom. The stock is trading at 15x '26e EV/EBIT on our current estimates. |