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Donkey Republic - Wet wheels won't stop the roll

19 april 2026

<a id="bm-comp-8db434f8-15f5-4009-8b63-c5b0cad4e16e" name="bm-comp-8db434f8-15f5-4009-8b63-c5b0cad4e16e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="8db434f8-15f5-4009-8b63-c5b0cad4e16e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Small Q1e: +10% revenue growth, EBITDA of DKK -3.2m</li><li>German roll-outs on track; we remain in upper end of guidance</li><li>+20% revenue CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR of DKK 7-10</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-3be555c2-2aa1-473b-ae64-edcec8dad42c" name="bm-comp-3be555c2-2aa1-473b-ae64-edcec8dad42c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="3be555c2-2aa1-473b-ae64-edcec8dad42c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">We see +10% growth in Q1 despite weather drag</h3><p>Donkey Republic ("DONKEY") is due to report Q1 earnings late in April (exact date not disclosed). We forecast revenues of DKK 28.9m in the seasonally small Q1, for +10% growth y-o-y, driven by flattish revenue/bike (DKK 407) and a fleet size of 23.7k bikes. Q1 precipitation and temperatures in certain key markets should be a drag on revenue/bike, likely offsetting underlying improvements. Note roll-outs in Germany will not impact Q1, but we expect revenue/bike to decline slightly from Q2e onwards. We forecast Q1 EBITDA of DKK -3.2m, a strong improvement from the DKK -6.3m in Q1'25, with recent layoffs gradually visible.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Roll-outs appear on track; we remain in upper end of guidance</h3><p>We sense roll-outs in D&#252;sseldorf and the Ruhr Region are tracking well, so we continue to expect FY'26 figures in the upper end of guidance, forecasting revenues of DKK 192m (guidance DKK 179m-194m) and EBIT of DKK 7.4m (guidance DKK 1m-9m).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">+20% revenue CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR of DKK 7-10</h3><p>Europe's bike-sharing fleet, part of the broader shared micromobility market, is projected to grow at +15% CAGR until '30e, and we see DONKEY's competitive edge centred around its high-quality fleet (especially after roll-out of its Gen4 bike), its lower prices (price/cost is 50% of scoring in EU tenders), and stronger relations with the cities it serves, coupled with solid positions in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 segments. Considering market tailwinds and DONKEY's pipeline and commercial momentum, including two recent large-scale wins in Germany, we forecast a revenue CAGR of +20% in '25-'28e (vs. +35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 84m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 39m. We set a fair value range of DKK 7-10/share.</p></td></tr></table>

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