<a id="bm-comp-b973f653-db11-4368-9bca-18ee0e1bd738" name="bm-comp-b973f653-db11-4368-9bca-18ee0e1bd738" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b973f653-db11-4368-9bca-18ee0e1bd738" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>We expect near-term headwinds: Q1 EBITA -8% y-o-y</li><li>Soft UK forecasts mean we lower '26e-'28e EBITA by 4-1%</li><li>We lower our fair value range to SEK 55-75, 10x-13x '26e EV/EBITA</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-8cb6361e-9711-4744-879d-efeccd33b66c" name="bm-comp-8cb6361e-9711-4744-879d-efeccd33b66c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="8cb6361e-9711-4744-879d-efeccd33b66c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Higher shipping rates and ROT hangover could weigh on Q1</h3><p>Seeing soft macro signals from the UK and Sweden, Svedbergs Group's two largest markets, and also tougher comparable growth figures sequentially, we expect a deceleration in organic growth of 4% in Q1, for net sales of SEK 580m. We expect freight-related gross margin pressure in Roper Rhodes to partly offset pricing initiatives, for a 30bp gross margin expansion, but higher opex related to selling initiatives will weigh on margins, for an EBITA margin contraction of 80bp to 14.9% and EBITA of SEK 86m, -8% y-o-y.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Soft signals from the UK lead to 4% lower '26e EBITA</h3><p>We cut our group '26e-'28e EBITA estimates by 4-1%, lowering our EBITA forecasts for the Svedbergs and Roper Rhodes segments. We cut our Svedbergs estimates near-term on a soft ROT backdrop, as we assess that a disproportionate number of bathroom projects were done before the new year to benefit from the then-higher tax deductions. We cut our Roper Rhodes figures as well on the back of soft CPA forecasts and higher freight rates, which we believe could have a negative impact on Roper Rhodes' gross margins, in particular given the business model with production in China. Updated FX rates offset some of our estimate cuts, however.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">We lower our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (57-77)</h3><p>The Svedbergs share has returned 2% YTD, and is now trading at 12.1x '26e EV/EBITA. We lower our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (57-77) in this note, which corresponds to '26e EV/EBITA of 10x-13x. We argue the most relevant peers to Svedbergs Group are Nordic home improvement companies, which are trading at an average 11.6x '26e EV/EBITA.</p></td></tr></table>