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Nexam Chemical - We expect another quarter of mixed signals

15 april 2026

<a id="bm-comp-60150a9f-e7e2-4fc2-bc5e-0bd303df86e7" name="bm-comp-60150a9f-e7e2-4fc2-bc5e-0bd303df86e7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="60150a9f-e7e2-4fc2-bc5e-0bd303df86e7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Report out on 21 April</li><li>Q1e sales of SEK 46m (49m), EBIT SEK -3.5m (-2.8m)</li><li>Recycling remains the key growth driver</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-38ae9db6-ccc2-48ad-a160-7624b340089c" name="bm-comp-38ae9db6-ccc2-48ad-a160-7624b340089c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="38ae9db6-ccc2-48ad-a160-7624b340089c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q1 expectations</h3><p style="text-align:left;">We estimate Q1 sales of SEK 46m, -7% y-o-y. In Performance Chemicals, Recycling should sustain its momentum (~20% of sales in Q4'25) to continue to drive growth in the segment. We expect High Temperature to normalise after the temporary inventory build-up among its largest customer in Q4; we estimate segment sales of SEK 22m (20m). We think Masterbatch, which is more exposed to general industry, will continue to face soft end-markets; we estimate sales of SEK 24m, down 17% y-o-y. On EBIT, we estimate SEK -3.5m (-2.8m).</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Estimate changes</h3><p>We cut '26e-'28e sales by 3-2% and total '26e-'28e EBIT by SEK 7m ahead of the Q1 report. We still expect Nexam to reach positive EBIT in '27, supported by growing Recycling volumes.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">We remain positive on Recycling</h3><p>Our long-term view is largely unchanged. The Recycling segment has been expanding rapidly, offsetting weakness in areas such as PET-form. Notably, a US-based customer is broadening its use of Nexam additives for food packaging, with an expected annual run-rate of SEK 11m from Q2'26. Management sees an obtainable market of ~EUR 70m (assuming 5% penetration in Europe and 2% elsewhere), compared with Recycling sales of ~EUR 2.2m in 2025, implying substantial upside. The share has returned +7% over the last three months (vs. peers at -16% and OMXSALLS at +3%) and is trades at 1.2x-0.9x '26e-'28e EV/Sales. We lower our fair value range to SEK 3.0-4.0 on our estimate cuts (previously SEK 3.0-5.0).</p></td></tr></table>

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