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Midsona - Skipping down Sesame Street

31 mars 2026

<a id="bm-comp-392b4478-b0d5-4570-8a3d-8ab89e02b1fd" name="bm-comp-392b4478-b0d5-4570-8a3d-8ab89e02b1fd" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="392b4478-b0d5-4570-8a3d-8ab89e02b1fd" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q1e: flat organic growth and minor margin improvements</li><li>Risenta acquisition adds 3.5% to FY sales</li><li>Trading at '26e EV/EBITA of ~9.5x</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-1bc75960-e4e5-4b12-8405-9284db95a914" name="bm-comp-1bc75960-e4e5-4b12-8405-9284db95a914" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1bc75960-e4e5-4b12-8405-9284db95a914" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">We expect a fairly uneventful Q1</h3><p style="text-align:left;">We anticipate flat organic growth y-o-y in Q1'26e, implying sales of SEK 909m and adj. EBIT of SEK 38m, for a margin of 4.2%. We expect continued headwinds in South Europe, which are partly offset by organic growth improvements in North Europe and the Nordics. For the quarter, we expect an FX impact of -3% on net sales. We expect continued strength in the GM on product mix in Q1e. Our estimated adj. EBIT margin is up 0.3pp y-o-y, as we expect total opex to decline by 8%, partly on the recent cost savings initiatives. Moreover, Q1 will be positively affected by SEK 58m due to insurance compensation after the fire in Spain.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Back to M&amp;A</h3><p style="text-align:left;">Midsona issued a press release this morning stating that it is acquiring Swedish health food company Risenta, well know for its sesame-based snacks. The acquisition cost is SEK 45m and Risenta has an annual turnover of SEK ~130m, which would add ~3.5% to Midsona's full-year sales. The acquisition will go through on 1 June, and our estimated M&amp;A growth for '26e-'27e is 2-1%. Midsona has not disclosed Risenta's profitability, although commented that it should be EBIT- and EPS-accretive. Assuming an EBIT margin in line with Midsona's '27e of ~6%, this would imply an EV/EBIT of ~7x compared to Midsona's 10x. We make limited changes to our organic estimates, with '26e-'27e sales and adj. EBITA are up 1-2% and 1-4%. We expect the nature of Risenta's business to weigh slightly on the GM, but carry less opex. Unadjusted '26e earnings are up significantly on the insurance payment.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Implied valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9.5x '26e adj. EV/EBITA, which is ~30% below current peer multiples. We note that peers are in turn trading ~7% below the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.</p></td></tr></table>

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