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I-tech - Another growth breather in Q1e

30 mars 2026

<a id="bm-comp-e5ea4757-ff7e-4d90-b162-dbdbcd5ccc1c" name="bm-comp-e5ea4757-ff7e-4d90-b162-dbdbcd5ccc1c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e5ea4757-ff7e-4d90-b162-dbdbcd5ccc1c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q1e sales 42m (57m), adj. EBIT SEK 9.8m (18m)</li><li>Updated FX forecasts, we raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5%</li><li>Trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 8x-3x</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-39f64ca8-2abf-4270-9fa2-9185a0ebad48" name="bm-comp-39f64ca8-2abf-4270-9fa2-9185a0ebad48" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="39f64ca8-2abf-4270-9fa2-9185a0ebad48" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q1 expectations</h3><p style="text-align:left;">We estimate sales of SEK 42m (57m), -27% y-o-y (-15%% org., -12% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps into Q1, as the quarter was particularly strong last year (sales +49% y-o-y), as the Q1'25 result also included volumes from a large customer that has since reported financial constraints. On EBIT, we forecast SEK 9.8m (18m) for a margin of 24% (31%).</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Estimate changes</h3><p>We raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5% on our updated FX forecasts, but lift personnel costs to reflect the recent hiring tied to the company's business development initiatives. This results in '26e-'28e adj. EBIT adjustments of +2-4%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Remain positive on long-term case</h3><p>Despite near-term organic headwinds, we think I-Tech is continuing to gain market share. Customer diversification is progressing well, with PPG (+126%), Kansai (+109%), and Jotun (+108%) all delivering triple-digit volume growth in FY'25, albeit from low bases. CMP volumes grew +21% in '25, and we expect a similar pace in '26e. We also see potential for normalisation in the financially constrained customer noted above. China, which is now ~26% of sales, remains a key growth market given its dominance in newbuild and drydocking, where new Selektope products are gaining traction. The stock is trading at 8x-3x EV/EBIT on '26e-'28e and 12x-7x P/E, i.e. ~50% below peers.</p></td></tr></table>

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