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StrongPoint - Slow and steady

16 oktober 2025

<a id="bm-comp-2e04485d-2ea8-4aa7-b7c1-4d7ed2b99b90" name="bm-comp-2e04485d-2ea8-4aa7-b7c1-4d7ed2b99b90" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="2e04485d-2ea8-4aa7-b7c1-4d7ed2b99b90" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Q3e EBITDA of NOK 9m</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Awaiting stabilised markets</font></li><li><font color="#000000">'26e-'27e estimates down - DCF NOK 15/sh</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-1079ffd6-f4ce-4824-bc81-d20eae73c9ac" name="bm-comp-1079ffd6-f4ce-4824-bc81-d20eae73c9ac" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1079ffd6-f4ce-4824-bc81-d20eae73c9ac" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Q3e EBITDA of NOK 9m</h3><p><font color="#000000">The last couple of years have not been a period of smooth sailing for StrongPoint, as project delays and long decision-making cycles have hampered momentum and weighed on profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was NOK 12m in '24, down from NOK 80m in '22. It remains a waiting game, but performance has improved in '25, with H1'25 EBITDA of NOK 18m. StrongPoint is taking one step (quarter) at a time on its recovery road, and we expect Q3 to be another step in the right direction. We model Q3 revenues of ~NOK 358m (up ~14% y-o-y, vs. +18% y-o-y in Q2), with a GM at 42.0% and EBITDA of ~NOK 9m. This implies LTM EBITDA of ~NOK 32m, up ~70% from the Q1'25 LTM EBITDA &#8211; still a way to go, but getting there.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Awaiting stabilised markets</h3><p><font color="#000000">The EBITDA margin is still pressed at ~2.5%, which compares to the company's long-term target of an EBITDA margin &gt;10%. Though we believe the long-term target will remain in place, we expect StrongPoint to provide a new strategy update in H1'26 regarding its short-term targets. Previously, StrongPoint targeted '25 revenues of NOK 1.5bn-1.8bn and an EBITDA margin of 4-6%. With these targets out of range, coupled with delays and difficult market conditions, it is likely that the company will adopt a more cautious view on its short-term targets, meaning a modest '26 target is likely. We model a '26e EBITDA margin of 4.0%, which yields EBITDA of ~NOK 62m &#8211; 25% below the previous '25 targets.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">'26e-'27e estimates down &#8211; DCF NOK 15/sh</h3><p><font color="#000000">We make limited changes to our underlying '25e estimates (in absolute numbers), but our '26e-'27e estimates are down, as we lift opex somewhat and take a somewhat more careful view on the market recovery. Updated with more cautious estimates and a long-term EBITDA margin of ~7% (vs. &gt;10% target), our DCF points to NOK 15/sh (we see fair range of 8-18/sh).</font></p></td></tr></table>

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