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Generic - Margin stability in a softer market

20 oktober 2025

<a id="bm-comp-331951d4-f845-4c34-9c70-d6ed01f66957" name="bm-comp-331951d4-f845-4c34-9c70-d6ed01f66957" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="331951d4-f845-4c34-9c70-d6ed01f66957" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Seasonally weaker volumes to weigh on earnings</font></li><li><font color="#000000">10-12% '26e-'27e sales growth, 21-22% EBIT margin</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Trading at 12x EV/EBITA in '26e, ~15% below historical median</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-36123840-2880-48a4-a735-3e385674ded2" name="bm-comp-36123840-2880-48a4-a735-3e385674ded2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="36123840-2880-48a4-a735-3e385674ded2" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Expect usual seasonal impact on Q3 numbers</h3><p><font color="#000000">Generic reports its Q3'25 on 12 November, and we expect sales of SEK 44m, representing 2% y-o-y growth and reflecting weaker seasonality in the period. The softer top line is primarily affected by lower volume-based activity within e-commerce and logistics, where, e.g., fewer packages are sent out. As DOCS and SenderID increase as a share of sales this quarter, we expect a supportive effect on the gross margin, for which we forecast 44%. We estimate adj. EBITDA of SEK 10m, i.e., 5% y-o-y growth, and a margin of 22%.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Higher sales growth to return in '26e</h3><p><font color="#000000">Due to the recent change of analyst, we revise our estimates. We believe Generic will return to higher sales growth of 10-12% in '26e-'27e, after a weaker showing in '25 that was driven by a soft market and tough comps. Furthermore, we expect Generic to maintain its current EBIT margin of around 21-22%. We continue to see healthcare, e-health and national security as important growth pillars for the company.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Trading below its historical EV/EBITA</h3><p><font color="#000000">Generic is currently trading at 12x '26e EV/EBITA, which is ~15% below its historical median. While Generic is a CPaaS company, we see potential for the company to continue its ongoing shift towards SaaS and recurring revenue in the coming years, while still retaining its volume products. This shift is already visible in e.g. the transformation of Minicall into a SaaS offering. We also expect the growing contribution from DOCS and SenderID to support this transition and improve the sales mix. Looking ahead, we continue to focus on two key KPIs &#8211; 1) gross margin and 2) EBITDA/gross profit &#8211; as they both demonstrate the company's underlying operational efficiency.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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