<a id="bm-comp-f2796dee-8660-41fc-894c-b0c5524da9e9" name="bm-comp-f2796dee-8660-41fc-894c-b0c5524da9e9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f2796dee-8660-41fc-894c-b0c5524da9e9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4: Back to growth and positive EBIT; sales +12% vs. ABGSCe</li><li>Seasonally softer H1'26e, stronger H2'26e expected</li><li>We cut '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% and total EBIT by SEK 13m</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-282a6afc-e299-4a67-8665-edd395f3161b" name="bm-comp-282a6afc-e299-4a67-8665-edd395f3161b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="282a6afc-e299-4a67-8665-edd395f3161b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Seasonally softer Q1 ahead, EBIT positive in H2e</h3><p style="text-align:left;">ES returned to growth in Q4 and delivered a positive EBIT. Sales were SEK 70m (+12% vs. ABGSCe, +33% y-o-y) while EBIT was SEK 1.2m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 2.4m). OEM sales rebounded after a temporary inventory build-up among OEM customers in Q2/Q3. Growth was driven by Residential (+40% y-o-y), while Commercial remained weak (-29% y-o-y). Heading into '26, management guides for a seasonally softer H1'26e but expects a clear pick-up in Q3/Q4e. We view this as reasonable, supported by: 1) improving market conditions, 2) contracted OEM volumes, and 3) continued propane (R290) roll-outs. For Q1e, we expect growth to turn negative again on seasonality, before improving from Q2e on easier comps and building momentum into Q3/Q4e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Estimate changes</h3><p>We cut '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 13m, on our lowered volume expectations for H1'26e. We expect EBIT to be negative in H1&#8217;26e (seasonality), before improving to positive EBIT in H2&#8217;26e. For FY'26e, we now forecast EBIT of SEK -1m, followed by SEK +17m in '27e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Improving market conditions</h3><p>ES appears well-placed to benefit from a broader market recovery. We think the company can recover volumes and re-enter a growth trajectory in '26e, with recent heat-pump market data suggesting conditions are starting to improve (SE+NL+DE HP unit sales up +21% y-o-y in Q4'25), although the timing and pace of the recovery remain uncertain. Moreover, we still expect negative FCF in &#8217;26e, and note a more pressured net cash position. However, we think with improving profitability in '26e and improving market conditions, ES should return to positive FCF in &#8217;27e and strengthen its financial position. ES is currently trading at 6x-3x EV/EBIT '27e-'28e. We lower our fair value range on our revised estimates to SEK 20-37 (20-50).</p></td></tr></table>