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Arctic Paper - Still challenging

20 februari 2026

<a id="bm-comp-e66f138a-a945-442f-a7d8-43ad721afac8" name="bm-comp-e66f138a-a945-442f-a7d8-43ad721afac8" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e66f138a-a945-442f-a7d8-43ad721afac8" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challenging</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Fair value range of SEK 17-50</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-c78e8d07-f8b8-4c68-aa4f-93ebd48c7c86" name="bm-comp-c78e8d07-f8b8-4c68-aa4f-93ebd48c7c86" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="c78e8d07-f8b8-4c68-aa4f-93ebd48c7c86" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Arctic Paper delivered Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m, compared to our estimate of PLN 25m. However, note that the reported figure included an energy refund of ~PLN 40m, i.e clean Paper EBIT was PLN -27m vs. our clean estimate of PLN -14m. Weak demand and increased Asian competition have put pressure on prices, which impacted the Paper profitability. An announced 8-10 percent paper price increase aims to restore margins, though H1 2026 demand visibility remains weak. Pulp EBITDA was somewhat softer than expected at PLN -74m vs. our estimate of PLN -70m. Regarding the pulp business, the quarter was characterised by lower pulp prices in USD combined with a stronger SEK, as well as high wood costs. A write-down of finished goods inventory linked to lower pulp prices weighed on earnings by ~SEK -35m. In addition, the annual maintenance shutdown at Vallvik Mill impacted results by ~SEK 70-80m.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challenging</font></h3><p style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">Pulpwood prices are dropping 25-30% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 10% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand the utilisation rate is only 75-80%. We need 3mt more cuts to reach the historical average. The pulp market has had its short-term issues, but Suzano has hiked hardwood prices seven times, or +26%. Rottneros' exposure mainly lies within softwood and CTMP, which has lagged hardwood. However, SCA's recent USD 100/t NBSK price hike is good news for Rottneros, which could also see prices up in '26.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Fair value range of SEK 17-50</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.45x, which is ~40% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 17-50.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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