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StrongPoint - Signs of improvement

26 oktober 2025

<a id="bm-comp-e2f603e9-22a0-463d-8b08-4a298aeace43" name="bm-comp-e2f603e9-22a0-463d-8b08-4a298aeace43" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e2f603e9-22a0-463d-8b08-4a298aeace43" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Q3 EBITDA of NOK 14m</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Signs of improvement</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Limited underlying estimate changes - DCF NOK 15/sh</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-92be074e-f25c-4ccd-988b-96a92c315c0e" name="bm-comp-92be074e-f25c-4ccd-988b-96a92c315c0e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="92be074e-f25c-4ccd-988b-96a92c315c0e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Q3 EBITDA of NOK 14m</h3><p><font color="#000000">StrongPoint delivered a decent Q3, with revenue up +2% y-o-y (NOK 320m vs. NOK 313m in Q3'24) and EBITDA at NOK 14m vs. ABGSCe NOK 9m. This translated into an EBITDA margin of 4.3%, up from 3.9% in Q3'24. The top-line growth was solely driven by UK &amp; Ireland, which was up 127% y-o-y (AutoStore implementation and ESL installations). The revenues in the Nordics declined 12%, driven by lower product sales of low-margin ESL hardware and hard comps as several large rollouts were completed last year. Note that the gross margin increased by 2.2pp y-o-y, driven by a higher share of services (ESL and AutoStore installations). StrongPoint reiterated its long-term ambitions (EBITDA margin &gt;10% and "healthy" revenue growth), and while not there yet, the YTD margin of 3.1% is +3.4pp from the same period last year, i.e. slow and steady improvements.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Signs of improvement</h3><p><font color="#000000">The past few years have been challenging for StrongPoint, but 2025 indicates a recovery, with YTD EBITDA at NOK 31m, vs. NOK -3m in the same period last year (reported figures). Further, recurring revenue continues to grow, +12% y-o-y in Q3&#8217;25, driven by a 27% increase in licence revenue. We understand that some of the improvements stem from StrongPoint delivering on its Order Picking solution, so we find it encouraging that a leading retailer, MC (Portugal's top grocery retailer), chose the StrongPoint solution to replace its existing solution, i.e. we see this as a proof-of-concept for the StrongPoint Order Picking solution.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Limited underlying estimate changes &#8211; DCF NOK 15/sh</h3><p><font color="#000000">We make limited changes to our underlying estimates, and with Sainsbury's and MC Order Picking rollouts expected by summer '26, we see potential for a stronger '26e. Our DCF points to NOK 15/sh (fair value range of NOK 8-18/sh).</font></p></td></tr></table>

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