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Nilörn - We label this a strong report

24 oktober 2025

<a id="bm-comp-88dc5791-b2eb-4976-9c66-d0117692d3ec" name="bm-comp-88dc5791-b2eb-4976-9c66-d0117692d3ec" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="88dc5791-b2eb-4976-9c66-d0117692d3ec" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Stronger than expected across the board</li><li>We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 10-3%</li><li>Trading at ~8x EV/EBIT on our NTM estimates</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-6bdb76c5-062c-4ac4-901c-11ce45d0d63f" name="bm-comp-6bdb76c5-062c-4ac4-901c-11ce45d0d63f" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="6bdb76c5-062c-4ac4-901c-11ce45d0d63f" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Strong sales, adj. EBIT even better</h3><p>Sales were better than we expected in Q3, and adj. EBIT was also significantly higher. FX had an impact on Q3 sales of SEK -16m. Sales were positively affected by a spill-over from the soft Q2, as 2025 is showing a later seasonal pattern than usual. The outdoor segment is showing continued strength, but the company does not expect the luxury market to recover until mid 2026. Order bookings decreased by 12.5% y-o-y to SEK 224m, which was in line with our expected range (SEK 210-230m). The order book was affected by an order of SEK 18m that came into Q3'24, but is delayed into Q4'25e. Moreover, the gross margin was slightly decreased to 47%, but is still above the historical average Q3 level of 45.5%, as packaging sales in the luxury segment have decreased. Adj. EBIT was very strong, growing 34% y-o-y for a margin of 11.4% (+2pp y-o-y), mainly due to Nil&#246;rn's strong operating leverage.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">We raise sales and earnings estimates</h3><p>We increase our '25e-'27e sales estimates by ~3%, following the report and updated FX. We also raise '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 10-3% on the back of the report. We keep our assumptions that the '26e-'27e GM will be slightly lower than in '25e, as packaging sales should return. However, we believe that as volumes increase and the current investments start to pay off, Nil&#246;rn will be able to increase its profit margins in '26e-'27e. We note that the timeline for the investments in Bangladesh was pushed forward from late '26 to H1'27. Margins should reach the 10-12% target range in '27e, as capacity is filled.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Valuation</h3><p>Our new estimates imply that Nil&#246;rn is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT of ~8x, which is ~10% below the five-year median for Nil&#246;rn and ~25% below peers.</p></td></tr></table>

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