<a id="bm-comp-6a7b93da-e01f-4a91-8845-d8dbcfab93d6" name="bm-comp-6a7b93da-e01f-4a91-8845-d8dbcfab93d6" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="6a7b93da-e01f-4a91-8845-d8dbcfab93d6" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>We forecast Q4 revenue of NOK 243m, +15% y-o-y</li><li>Doro acquisition closed, could lift '28e EBITA by ~120-200%</li><li>Xplora standalone at 13-8x EV/EBITA on '25-'26e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-fb1aba41-9983-4349-9914-f07317c53b00" name="bm-comp-fb1aba41-9983-4349-9914-f07317c53b00" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="fb1aba41-9983-4349-9914-f07317c53b00" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q4e: 8% below consensus on revenue, 4% below on EBITDA</h3><p>Xplora delivered strong revenue growth of 35% y-o-y in Q3, driven by record device sales of 163k units (+30% y-o-y). The company has pre-announced 358k total subscriptions at the end of Q4, up 39% y-o-y. Xplora expects somewhat reduced seasonality and a more balanced distribution of watch sales across Q3 and Q4 this year, but it also stated that it expects Q4 to be “a good quarter”, which we interpret as positive y-o-y growth on revenue and EBITDA. For Q4, we forecast 6% growth y-o-y in devices sales, revenue of NOK 243m (+15% y-o-y), and EBITDA of NOK 18.4m (+58% y-o-y). As a result, we are 8% below FactSet consensus revenue of NOK 266m and 4% below consensus EBITDA of NOK 19.1m. We only make minor estimate changes in this report.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Doro acquisition could lift EBITA by 120-200% or more</h3><p>On 15 January, Xplora announced that it has received acceptances for 88% of the shares in Doro AB and that the offer is unconditional and closed, while it intends to acquire all remaining shares. With 88% acceptances, we expect Doro to be consolidated into Xplora's financials from 1 January 2025. If Xplora is able to convert 5-10% of Doro's phone sales to its own subscriptions, we estimate that it could lift '28e EBITA by 120-200% vs. Xplora standalone. If so, '28e EV/EBITA would drop to 3.7-2.7x.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range of NOK 23-42/share</h3><p>On a standalone basis, Xplora is trading at 13-8x EV/EBITA and 12-9x EV/EBITDA-capex on '25-'26e (ABGSCe). Compared to our key peer group, Xplora is trading 4-13% above on '25-'26e EV/EBITDA-capex. Our DCF points to NOK 28-42/share.</p></td></tr></table>