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Volatile market conditions create estimate uncertaintyThe global shortage of memory components due to data centre expansion is creating large price increases on servers and storage disks that Proact re-sells in its system offering (from partners Dell and NetApp). Both Dell and NetApp reported accelerated growth rates and better-than-expected sales in their recent quarters (expected to accelerate further ahead), supporting our thesis of good momentum and a pricing tailwind for Proact. However, we also understand that current market conditions are affecting delivery times negatively, i.e. increasing them, which means that even though orders may be strong (which Proact does not report), sales recognition may become more spread out over Q2e-Q4e. The higher prices likely also create tougher price competition among re-sellers in the market as customers are looking for as low prices as possible, to a larger extent than under normal market conditions, as well as having a small negative effect on other IT spending (like service sales for Proact) due to less headroom in IT budgets. For Q2 we estimate 8% organic growth in system sales and 0% in service sales, resulting in a group organic growth rate of 5%. As a result of cost actions made, we estimate an adj. EBITA of SEK 98m, up 30% y-o-y, for another good earnings growth quarter. Small negative estimate changesWe leave our sales estimates unchanged but decrease '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 3% due to somewhat delayed delivery times and increased competition in the market. Share at 8.1x 2026e EV/EBITAOn our updated estimates and post a strong share price increase (+42% L3M), the share currently trades at 8.1x 2026e EV/EBITA. |