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Aftermarket drives German beatFerronordic's Q1 sales were SEK 1,128m (-6% y-o-y, -1% vs ABGSCe) with EBIT of SEK 37m (+7% vs. ABGSCe 35m) for a margin of 3.2% (ABGSCe 3.0%). The earnings beats was driven by an improving Germany, where we see a high share of margin-accretive aftermarket sales. The US missed on EBIT (-15% vs. ABGSCe, -2% y-o-y), but displayed positive signs with decreasing opex/sales and organic growth. Proficient control of both corporate cost and German opex also supported margins in the quarter. Net debt increased by 7% y-o-y and 21% sequentially, due to tied-up working capital continuing to weigh on Q1 cash flow. Alongside the sequential earnings decline, ND/EBITDA increased to 3.8x (3.4x in Q4'25). We continue to see the <3.0x ND/EBITDA leverage target as achievable in 2026. 4-1% '26-'27e EBIT raiseEstimate changes are modest, reflecting a broadly in-line report (~SEK 15m sales miss, ~SEK 2m EBIT beat). We lower US EBIT by 3% (~SEK 7m) in ’26e on slightly softer equipment sales than previously expected, while raising ’27-’28e by 1% on updated FX forecasts. We raise our German '26e EBIT estimate by ~SEK 7m, reflecting higher expected volumes in Q2'26 following management's commentary on deliveries postponed during Q1, as well as continued opex discipline and continued aftermarket traction. Encouragingly, continued cost discipline within group functions leads us to extrapolate this development further. On a group level, EBIT is raised 4% '26-'27e. Trading at 11-7x EV/EBIT vs. peers at 16-15xFerronordic is enjoying a solid start to the year, led by a favourable German revenue mix and continued cost control. The valuation presently sits at 11-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT, which can be compared to our distributor peer group at 16-15x. |