Clavister - The defence story is just starting

• Gross margins above its target of 80%
• Order book at a record and foundation getting stronger
• Trading at EV/EBITDA of 18-10x '26e-'27e, ~20% below peers

Only getting better from here

Clavister reported a strong Q1'26 report, with sales up 35% y-o-y and a gross margin of 81%, driven by a favourable mix. EBITDA was SEK 14m, up +110% y-o-y, (19% margin). Adjusting for one-off costs of SEK 1.1m and temporary ramp-up costs of SEK 3.6m related to the Norwegian order, the underlying EBITDA margin was 26%. The civilian business was held back by cautious customers, although the ARR still grew 6% y-o-y - a promising sign that the underlying base is intact.

42% y-o-y sales growth in '26e

The Norwegian order will now contribute in full in the coming quarters, as the contract was only signed in late January. We also expect cash from the order to come in later this year. H2'26e will have easier comps, although we lower '26e EBIT by 5%, reflecting somewhat higher costs from larger orders and continued investments in the ongoing business expansion. Also promising is the order book of SEK 640m, of which the company expects SEK 162m to roll out over the next 12 months.

Trading ~20% below its peers

We have seen the telecom sector increasing its investments around Europe, and although this has not yet shown up in Clavister's numbers, we think this should be another growth driver going forward. Energy companies and municipalities are also running active evaluations of their cybersecurity set-ups, which today are mostly built around US solutions. Clavister is in these discussions, but lead times are long, so we think it will take time to show in the numbers. The company is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 18-10x for '26e-'27e, ~20% below peers. We remain positive on the expansion of the company across both the civilian business (~70% of group sales) and the defence sector.