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Solid Q1 performance despite weather hitDONKEY delivered solid +10% revenue growth in Q1'26, driven by +10% fleet growth and a modest +1% improvement in revenue/bike. Despite a harsh weather impact in January and February, albeit normalising in March, the company delivered a strong improvement in profitability, with the EBITDA loss reducing to DKK -1.2m (from DKK -6.3m in Q1'25) on cost-saving initiatives carried out in Q3 and Q4'25. '26e/'27e/'28e EBITDA raised by 4%/2%/2%We extrapolate the stronger-than-expected profitability in Q1, raising '26e/'27e/'28e EBITDA by 4%/2%/2%. At the beginning of April, DONKEY started, in line with initial plans, the roll-out to the Ruhr region, and early indicators suggest the Düsseldorf roll-out is also tracking well. This leaves us expecting FY'26 figures in the upper end of guidance, forecasting revenues of DKK 191m (guidance DKK 179m-194m), EBITDA of DKK 42m (guidance 34m-45m) and EBIT of DKK 8m (guidance DKK 1m-9m). FVR of DKK raised to DKK 7.5-11.0 (7.0-10.0)Europe's bike-sharing fleet, part of the broader shared micromobility market, is projected to grow at a +15% CAGR until '30e, and we see DONKEY's competitive edge centred around its high-quality fleet (especially after the roll-out of its Gen4 bike), its lower prices (price/cost is 50% of scoring in EU tenders), and stronger relations with the cities it serves, coupled with solid positions in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 segments. Considering market tailwinds and DONKEY's pipeline and commercial momentum, including two recent large-scale wins in Germany, we forecast a revenue CAGR of +20% in '25-'28e (vs. +35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 85m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 40m. We raise our fair value range to DKK 7.5-11.0/share (7.0-10.0). |