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Q1 resultsQ1 sales were SEK 13m (vs. ABGSCe 8m), boosted by a positive one-off of SEK 4.8m associated with the sale of metals from Impact's inventory. Adjusted for this, sales were in line with our estimate of SEK 8m. However, adj. EBIT was lower at SEK -16m (vs. ABGSCe -12m). Q1 was a softer quarter due to the absence of machine deliveries alongside delayed activity in Coating Services. Management clarified in the earnings call that the delay in Coating Services was customer-specific and driven by supply chain timing rather than weaker underlying demand. IC ended Q1 with a cash position of SEK 18m vs. the R12m lease adj. FCF of SEK -56m. Estimate changes and outlookWe lower '26e sales by -2% and raise 28e by 2%. Moreover, we lower total '26e-'28e adj. EBIT by SEK 11m. We acknowledge the IC500 order from HJWAVE after the quarter (~EUR 1.5m), with delivery scheduled for Q3'26, which de-risks our '26e. However, we had previously modelled an IC2000 order at a somewhat higher price tag. We continue to estimate two machine deliveries for '26e. Due to market uncertainty, however, we stress downside risk to estimates. Looking ahead, management flagged the Lindberg LOI from Dec '25 as still in the pipeline, which we expect to convert to an order during '26e. China's new hydrogen push positive for ICWe expect the newly launched Chinese hydrogen pilot programme to support investment appetite in the Chinese market. Management noted a clear pickup in customer dialogue since the announcement in March, though not yet in production volumes. On SOFC, progress continues via the Ceres collaboration, which provides access to Ceres' publicly disclosed licensees, although the timing of the first system order remains uncertain. The company is currently trading at 2.2x-1.8x '26e-'28e EV/sales vs. peers at 2.0x-0.8x. |