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Q3 uneventful, but big financing news after the quarterViscaria reported Q3 EBIT of SEK -14m, with PP&E capex ramping up to SEK 279m, resulting in a cash position of SEK 317m per the end of Q3. The most noteworthy events, namely the announced debt project financing and the equity raise, occurred after the end of the quarter though, and we cover these below. Equity raise at SEK 19/sh, 5pp less dilution than we expectedOn 22 October the company communicated an equity raise of SEK 1.5bn, of which SEK 800m is an already-completed directed rights issue, and the remaining SEK 700m will be a share issue. The total number, SEK 1.5bn, is in line with our prior estimate, although we assumed a subscription price in line with the share price per our latest report, which was SEK 15.48 (on 14 August), for a share count of 205m, yet the directed rights issue was carried out at SEK 19/share. We now assume that the pending share issue will be carried out at the same price, which takes the total share count to 187m, for a dilution 42%, 5pp less than we previously estimated. In combination with the project debt financing package of up to SEK 3.9bn, which the company expects to complete by Q2'26, it should be well capitalised to re-open the Viscaria mine. No changes to our operational assumptionsOur revisions above pertain to the financing of the Viscaria mine, but our operational assumptions remain unchanged. At full production run-rate (we estimate in '29e), we model annual revenue and EBITDA of SEK 2.6bn and 1.6bn, respectively. This is based on the following input assumptions: 1) a copper price of USD 9,500/t, 2) an iron price of USD 120/t, a USD/SEK rate of 10.34, and a copper TC of USD 80/t concentrate. On spot prices and FX rates, we calculate that the full run-rate EBITDA would instead be SEK 1.9bn, ~20% above our official estimate. |