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NYAB - 18% EBIT growth '26e, with potential upside

13 februari 2026

<a id="bm-comp-1a4a7dd8-435b-43ac-84ee-3cea38483d5a" name="bm-comp-1a4a7dd8-435b-43ac-84ee-3cea38483d5a" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1a4a7dd8-435b-43ac-84ee-3cea38483d5a" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>We cut 2026e EBIT 4%, 2027e unchanged</li><li>Potential for large order signings near-term</li><li>Reiterate fair value range of SEK 6-9 per share</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-766ee345-65b1-4079-b25c-cba42a1f8a52" name="bm-comp-766ee345-65b1-4079-b25c-cba42a1f8a52" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="766ee345-65b1-4079-b25c-cba42a1f8a52" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">We forecast 18% EBIT growth in 2026</h3><p>NYAB delivered another solid report, with 10% organic growth. The margin was diluted, as expected, by the Dovre acquisition in Q1, but was still 8.2% (slightly below ABGSC 8.4%). The free cash flow was strong (142% conversion from EBIT), and the conversion on the full year was 122% (89% avg. 2022-2025), which meant that NYAB is now back in a net cash position. The order backlog in Civil Enginerring was up 18% y-o-y, and with a book-to-bill at 1.1x, we think NYAB is well-positioned to deliver on expectations for 2026 (we forecast 8% organic growth). We lower '26e margins somewhat for a 4% cut to EBIT, but '27e is unchanged. We see 18% EBIT growth in '26e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Potential for a few large orders in H1'26</h3><p>In addition to the current order book, we see upside potential from upcoming projects: in 2025, NYAB signed two significant phase 1 agreements with Svenska Kraftn&#228;t and the Municipality of Uppsala for a new powerline and a tram project, with a potential combined phase 2 project value of ~SEK 4bn for NYAB. These kind of collaboration projects are an important part of NYAB's civil engineering business, and most phase 1s are usually converted to phase 2 wins. We are now nearing the phase 2 of these two major projects, and management expects them to close in Q2'26. We therefore see a good chance that NYAB will deliver a strong order intake in H1'26.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Trading at 9x EBITA '26e, 10% below peers</h3><p>With continued good momentum for the Civil Engineering business in 2026 and beyond, we expect margins to expand towards the company's target of &gt;7.5%. That said, given the dilutive effect of Dovre short-term, we expect 6.2-6.3% in 2026-2027, but that 7.5% will be reached over time. Even though the group margin was 5.6% in 2025, it was still much better than construction peers at 3.9%.</p></td></tr></table>

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