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I-tech - A pause in pace, not the story

05 februari 2026

<a id="bm-comp-ff06504d-05a7-45b0-9802-bc0fd2d8a295" name="bm-comp-ff06504d-05a7-45b0-9802-bc0fd2d8a295" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="ff06504d-05a7-45b0-9802-bc0fd2d8a295" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4: -23% organic growth (vs. ABGSCe -12%)</li><li>Financially constrained customer weighed on &#8217;25 org. growth</li><li>Long-term potential intact, expect continued CMP growth in '26e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-0aaa4a3c-1080-4c31-b48f-2192a688ebc9" name="bm-comp-0aaa4a3c-1080-4c31-b48f-2192a688ebc9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0aaa4a3c-1080-4c31-b48f-2192a688ebc9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">2025, a mixed financial year</h3><p style="text-align:left;">Q4 organic growth came in below our estimate at -23% (vs. ABGSCe -12%, +120% in Q4'24). This implies FY&#8217;25 organic sales growth of +1%, a sharp slowdown from the +47% delivered in FY&#8217;24. The weaker performance was primarily due to a sizeable customer facing financial constraints, which led to a 2/3 reduction in volume offtake during FY&#8217;25. This has weighed on I-Tech&#8217;s volumes since Q2&#8217;25. Moving forward, we expect this customer&#8217;s volumes to be limited in H1&#8217;26, followed by an anticipated gradual recovery in H2&#8217;26. For '26e, we forecast +15% organic growth, driven by 1) continued CMP volume growth, 2) a gradual recovery in the large customer&#8217;s volumes and 3) growth among smaller customers (e.g. PPG, Jotun, Kansai Paints).</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Estimate changes</h3><p>We cut '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 5% and 7-5%, respectively, on the back of the weaker than expected Q4 report.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">We remain positive on the long-term potential</h3><p>While organic growth was weaker in FY&#8217;25, we continue to believe I-Tech is gaining market share. Importantly, CMP volumes grew +21% in FY&#8217;25, and we expect CMP to continue growing volumes in '26e. Additionally, we find it positive that China&#8217;s share of sales increased to 26% in FY&#8217;25 (13%), suggesting improving penetration in the Chinese market, where I-Tech has exposure to the dry-docking market, which is materially larger than the currently dominant newbuild market. The company is trading at 7x-4x EV/EBIT on '26e-'27e, and 11x-9x P/E, i.e. ~60-70% below peers.</p></td></tr></table>

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