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Isofol Medical - Learn from the first, deliver on the second

15 januari 2026

<a id="bm-comp-29f7afd3-30cc-41e3-a274-3b476c7900d7" name="bm-comp-29f7afd3-30cc-41e3-a274-3b476c7900d7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="29f7afd3-30cc-41e3-a274-3b476c7900d7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Targeting a huge unmet medical need</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Revised best-in-class potential</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-10924773-9e51-422b-a6a8-ba1e3765c6e0" name="bm-comp-10924773-9e51-422b-a6a8-ba1e3765c6e0" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="10924773-9e51-422b-a6a8-ba1e3765c6e0" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Huge unmet medical need</h3><p><font color="#000000">Isofol is developing <em>arfolitixorin</em>, a next-generation active <em>folate</em> designed to enhance standard chemotherapy built around <em>5-FU (fluorouracil)</em>, a widely used backbone treatment in <em>metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC)</em> expected to remain for the foreseeable future. CRC is the third most-common cancer globally, of which ~20-25% of patients present with metastatic CRC and 5-year survival &lt;15%.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">A clear value proposition</h3><p><font color="#000000">Although the Ph 3 <em>AGENT</em> trial failed in 2022, post-hoc analyses and an extensive review identified clear, addressable shortcomings in dosing, timing and protocol adherence. With a revised clinical strategy, a well-defined mechanistic rationale and sharpened organisational focus, we see renewed potential for arfolitixorin to replace <em>leucovorin</em>, the current suboptimal standard of care folate. Unlike leucovorin, which is a pro-drug requiring metabolic activation, arfolitixorin delivers the active folate directly, enabling more predictable and potentially stronger 5-FU enhancement. The ongoing Ph 1b/2 trial addresses prior shortcomings through higher dosing, correct timing and tighter protocol control, supported by renewed management and partner backing. If successful, we expect a late-2032e launch and ~50% peak penetration, supporting peak sales (ABGSCe) of ~SEK 7.7bn (non-risked) and ~SEK 1.5bn (risk-adj.).</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share</h3><p><font color="#000000">We value Isofol using a risk-adj. DCF (12% WACC, 0% terminal growth rate), including future dilution. Scenario A assumes clinical failure (LOA 0%) and yields SEK 0.1/share; scenario B reflects a risk-weighted outcome (LOA 20%), with a value of SEK 1.6/share, while scenario C assumes full clinical and commercial success in first-line mCRC (LOA 100%) with a value of SEK 10.5/share. This implies a fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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