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Careium - Turning a corner

30 september 2025

<a id="bm-comp-18a0d497-055b-4d54-8beb-e97b7962dfab" name="bm-comp-18a0d497-055b-4d54-8beb-e97b7962dfab" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="18a0d497-055b-4d54-8beb-e97b7962dfab" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q3e: 11% organic sales growth, 10% adj. EBITA margin</li><li>We lower estimates on continued lack of upfront revenue</li><li>Trading at 9x-6x '25e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-ec6bd162-b008-4514-b23d-a6d9e90aa5e1" name="bm-comp-ec6bd162-b008-4514-b23d-a6d9e90aa5e1" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="ec6bd162-b008-4514-b23d-a6d9e90aa5e1" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">H2 could deliver a recovery</h3><p>We expect Q3 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 221m and SEK 25m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 11% and a margin of 10%. We expect a significant improvement in the UK &amp; Ireland and continued strength in The Netherlands. Moreover, we believe that the Nordics will face tough comps, as SEK 24m was classified as financial leasing in Q3'24, and given the H1 trajectory, we do not expect any major financial lease contracts in Q3. However, we believe that a relief in pent-up demand in Sweden could support flat organic growth in the region. On margins, we expect a higher GM y-o-y (44% vs. 43%) given the LTM trend. We expect total opex growth of 8% in the quarter.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate cuts on financial leases</h3><p>We lower '25e-'27e sales by 2-3%, driven primarily by lower organic sales growth and slightly worse FX. As we mainly lower our expectations for financial lease contracts, the lack of up-front revenue has a negative scale impact on earnings. Moreover, we increase our '25 opex estimates, partly due to the <a data-bm-trackable="false" href="https://www.careium.com/se/investerarrelationer/pressmeddelanden/vd-och-koncernchef-christian-walen-lamnar-sin-tjanst-och-peter-heuman-ar-utsedd-till-tillforordnad-vd/" target="_blank">recent departure of former CEO Christian Wal&#233;n</a>. Adj. EBITA is lowered by 11-6% for '25e-'27e. Careium said in its Q2'25 report that H1'26 will be less impacted than H1'25 by the lack of financial lease contracts due to easier comps, and we interpret this as an indication that financial lease contracts will not return to the same extent.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Share trading at 7x cons. NTM adj. EV/EBITA</h3><p>On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at 9x-6x '25e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA, where we highlight '25e-'27e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 6% and 15%, respectively. Our peer group is currently trading at 11x-9x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA adj., with lower sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs (medians 3% and 11%, respectively) for the corresponding period.</p></td></tr></table>

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