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Eolus Vind - Profitability facing headwinds

27 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-5718dd5e-b63b-4083-80ac-7a4a03cdf504" name="bm-comp-5718dd5e-b63b-4083-80ac-7a4a03cdf504" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="5718dd5e-b63b-4083-80ac-7a4a03cdf504" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Pome project schedule delayed</li><li>Lower-than-expected project margins in Pome and Pienava</li><li>We cut '25e EBIT by SEK 262m</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-5e060d51-faf9-40bc-93f7-abfba6af65cc" name="bm-comp-5e060d51-faf9-40bc-93f7-abfba6af65cc" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="5e060d51-faf9-40bc-93f7-abfba6af65cc" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2 results</h3><p>Eolus reported Q2 net sales of SEK 364m and EBIT of SEK -74m (vs. ABGSCe of 103m). The weaker EBIT comes from a lower than expected project margin in Pienava and a negative provision associated with Pome due to a delayed project schedule. Moreover, the total expected project margin for Pome has been lowered; management now expects it will be around USD 10m (we had estimated a margin of around USD 25m). As of Q2, 85% of this had been accounted for, and we expect a further ~SEK 15m in project margins in H2'25e. In addition, the company expects remaining cash payments of ~USD 10m to be recorded until the start of the commercial operation (expected in H2'25e).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes and outlook</h3><p>We lower '25e EBIT by SEK 262m, mainly due to lower-than-expected project margins in Pienava and Pome. We have also lowered our '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 103m, reflecting reduced project margin expectations in the company&#8217;s late-stage portfolio because of near-term margin pressure. Looking ahead, the company is progressing with the construction of its onshore wind projects D&#229;llebo, Boarp, and F&#229;gel&#229;s. We expect these projects will be divested in H2'25e, with an estimated combined '25e EBIT contribution of ~SEK 190m.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Longer-than-usual sales cycles</h3><p>The share is trading at '25e-'27e P/Es of 9x-6x, with the low multiples partly explained by the company's volatile historic earnings trend and the perceived risk in future project sales. In its Q2 report, management highlighted a continued weak transaction market, which it expects to delay project sales and pressure expected margins. Despite the weaker market conditions, Eolus has completed two transactions in a short period, which we view as positive.</p></td></tr></table>

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