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Berner Industrier - Set up for compounding

04 juli 2025

<a id="bm-comp-f8a246b5-759c-4de5-9245-4549676ccf76" name="bm-comp-f8a246b5-759c-4de5-9245-4549676ccf76" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f8a246b5-759c-4de5-9245-4549676ccf76" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Expect continued order recovery but flat sales y-o-y</li><li>M&amp;A resumed, 1.6x adj. ND/EBITDA leaves room for more</li><li>T&amp;D margin has likely bottomed, recovery key to watch</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-d4c22620-8a10-4ebb-8b65-f94db0374fd1" name="bm-comp-d4c22620-8a10-4ebb-8b65-f94db0374fd1" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="d4c22620-8a10-4ebb-8b65-f94db0374fd1" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q2 expectations</font></h3><p>We expect the order intake recovery trend to continue in Q2, where we forecast SEK 287m of orders, up 15% y-o-y. Given the order weakness seen throughout the majority of last year, however, we estimate sales will be roughly flat y-o-y at SEK 255m, with the Autofric acquisition contributing ~4% sales growth (consolidated on 1 May). On margins, we expect an adj. EBITA level of 7.5% (6.8%), with the y-o-y increase mainly driven by improvement in T&amp;D, which we hope will be able to deliver a better level compared to last year thanks to cost saving measures and the organisational changes in Christian Berner AB.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Estimate changes</font></h3><p>We make only minor adjustments to our estimates, affecting adj. EBITA by -1%, 2% and 3% for '25e, '26e and '27e respectively.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Company valuation</font></h3><p>With the resumption of M&amp;A activity in the form of the Autofric acquisition, a recovering order trend, and the operational bottom in the T&amp;D segment likely behind us, the group looks set to grow both organically and via M&amp;A, as well as to gradually improve margins. We estimate leverage will come in at 1.6x adj. ND/EBITDA (1.0x lease adj.), leaving room in the balance sheet for further acquisitions. Our long-term view of the company remains unchanged, and we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 40-70. The share is currently trading at a P/E of 17x on our updated estimates.</p></td></tr></table>

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