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Infrea - Uneven terrain, but direction still right

21 juli 2025

<a id="bm-comp-d657ae71-abd8-4c6f-8daf-7cfd4fd34da2" name="bm-comp-d657ae71-abd8-4c6f-8daf-7cfd4fd34da2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="d657ae71-abd8-4c6f-8daf-7cfd4fd34da2" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2: +29% org. sales growth, SEK 9m adj. EBITA improvement</li><li>'25e-'27e adj. EBIT<font style="background-color:#ffffff;">A down 6-1%, 34%</font> CAGR '24-'27e</li><li><font style="background-color:#ffffff;">11-4x EBITA '25e-'27e, 29-36% lease-adj.</font> FCF yields</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-5a1ce0e6-9c2e-448a-82a3-3e8baf8af2e9" name="bm-comp-5a1ce0e6-9c2e-448a-82a3-3e8baf8af2e9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="5a1ce0e6-9c2e-448a-82a3-3e8baf8af2e9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font style="background-color:#ffffff;">Paving services delivering</font></h3><p>Infrea delivered a mixed Q2, with sales 5% above ABGSCe. Organic sales were +8% (ABGSCe +5%, +29% Q1'25), due to Land &amp; Construction (L&amp;C) growing 16% organically despite a weak market. Adj. EBITA improved by SEK 5m y-o-y, SEK -7m below our expectation due to a one-off from the divestment of Mikaels Gr&#228;vtj&#228;nst (SEK -3m) and a weak utilisation in L&amp;C due to the weak market. Water &amp; Sewage was flat, both in terms of sales and earnings, and we expect no change to this. Paving services delivered strong margins (12.3%), despite a weak performance in Duo Asphalt due to a quality issue. Management commented that the market remains tough. We expect adj. EBITA to increase by SEK 4m y-o-y in Q3'25e and then to continue with ~15% growth in H2'25e, supported by stable organic growth of 6-4%. Cash flow was strong at ~95% of adj. EBITA, and yielded a gearing of 2.0x.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Earnings growth to continue</h3><p>We lower '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 6-1% mainly on the weak market continuing, especially in the L&amp;C market where there is large price pressure from smaller companies. We expect 10% organic sales growth in '25e, which together with gradually improving margins should support SEK 26m adj. EBITA growth (+SEK 17m '24) and a 34% CAGR '24-'27e. We still believe that Infrea could add growth through potential M&amp;A.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise</h3><p>We believe that Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve its margins, given its exposure to underlying demand and to public customers (~55%), as well as support from M&amp;A (13% sales CAGR in '21-'24). For '24-'27e, we expect Infrea to deliver sales- and profitability growth and FCF above peers and with slightly lower margins. The share is trading at 11-4x adj. EBITA on '25e-'27e with a 29-36% lease-adj. FCF yield, while peers are trading at 7-6x.</p></td></tr></table>

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