Medicover - From build-out to fill-up

• Focus on sport/wellness, dental and smaller centres
• Adj. EBITDAaL margin expansion: 11.7% to 12.9% during '26e-'28e
• ~25% below its historical average on NTM EV/EBITDA

Polish capex skewing to margin-accretive growth levers

Last Wednesday we visited Medicover’s hospitals and clinics in Warsaw, with discussions centred on Poland as a core growth engine and driver of margin expansion over the next few years. In line with our recent investor-update takeaways, we expect capital allocation to become more aligned with the sales mix, implying a greater focus on Poland, but with a clearer tilt towards margin-accretive investment: 1) sports/wellness (incl. CityFit integration), 2) dental, and 3) smaller, local centres that broaden the network, improve convenience and lift fee-for-service capture.

Utilisation and network effects now the playbook

Management reiterated that utilisation still “leaves room” for growth without a step-up in capex, with prepaid primary care/occupational health acting as the anchor and a denser layer of smaller sites designed to drive referral flows, improve access and capture more FFS. Wellness is increasingly positioned as part of the same ecosystem, supporting retention and cross-sell as healthcare shifts from medicine towards lifestyle. At group level, capex is expected to stay around 6% of sales, and encouragingly, in '25 ROIC increased to 13% driven by utilisation/efficiency, which we believe will continue over the coming years.

No estimate/FVR changes, trading below historical averages

We make no changes to estimates or our FVR. We still forecast organic growth of 12-10% for ’26e-’28e and adj. EBITDAaL margins expanding from 11.7% to 12.9% (adj. EBITDA 16.9% to 18.1% for '26e to '28e), driven by mix and operating leverage as these Polish businesses scale. As a reference point, Benefit Systems, a Polish listed fitness peer, delivered an EBITDA margin of ~29% in FY’24, which we view as supportive for the long-term profitability potential in Polish sports/wellness as Medicover continues to scale its fitness business. On valuation, the share is still trading ~40-50% below what our regressions would suggest and ~20-25% below historical averages on NTM EV/EBITDA and EV/EBITA.